Brandon Erbe's Throw-Away Season

Right-hander Brandon Erbe is a Baltimore local; originally a 3rd round draft pick by the O's out of McDonough High School in 2005. The scouting types have always said that he had "electric" stuff (a term you hear thrown around way too often), but the knock on him was that he was frail, and had been consistently inconsistent throughout his 5+ years in the minor leagues.

I knew that he didn't have a great year for the Tides down in Norfolk (AAA) last season, but I did a double take when looking up his final stat line for '10 (I must have suppressed the memory to save myself the statistical trauma): a 5.73 ERA in 14 games (all starts), 70.2 innings pitched, 86 hits, 22 walks, a 1.53 WHIP, and just 50K. His final record? 0-10. Ouch.

Did I mention he threw just once after mid-June, and had season-ending surgery on August 13th to repair a torn labrum? Double-ouch.

Both Erbe and Orioles management expect him to make a full recovery in 2011, but it's the 2nd time he's had this kind of injury to the same shoulder, and it might take some time for him to rebuild his arm strength. He'll enter a 4-month rehab/throwing program in January, which will probably keep him out until May. He may not be fill strength until late in the year, if at all in 2011.

Triple Ouch.

All this after a solid season in 2009, mostly at Bowie (AA), where he went 5-4 with a 2.70 ERA in 18 starts. I had to do some digging to put everything in perspective. Is he talented (and dedicated) enough to slog through all this crap?

Here are the positives:

• Erbe is still very young (22), and had pitched well at every level in the minor leagues prior to last season. He has at least 2-3 more years before he ripens past prospect status.
• He's shown flashes of brilliance, sometimes for as long as half a season or more. He misses bats, which is an extremely valuable skill at every level.
• Yes, he's been frail, but has made a well-publicized series of mechanical adjustments that both he and the team think will help him avoid similar injuries in the future. 
• When he had the operation on his shoulder in August, doctors were pleasantly surprised that the damage wasn't nearly as bad as they'd expected.

And the negatives:

• The problem is, shoulder injuries are a real bitch for pitchers. 
• When they become repetitive, it can end a power pitcher's career in a hurry; at the very least, they can force a guy to fundamentally change the way he pitches.
• Very few players survive that kind of transition, when forced to make it.
• And, let's face it, Erbe already made some major modifications to his delivery prior to last year, in an attempt to stave off further injury. He still ended up having surgery.

Here's my take: he's gotten past this sort of thing in the past and been effective; that leads me to believe he can probably do it again. But every additional injury reduces the likelihood that he'll ever reach his true potential, and he's already pitched almost 6 full years in the minors. 2010 was a wash-out year, and 2011 will most likely be a throw-away, as well.

So let's be patient. But at the same time, don't feel bad if the doubts start creeping in. I'm sure Brandon's got them in his head, too.