Both the Baltimore Sun and MASN are reporting that the Orioles have signed free-agent first baseman Derrek Lee to a 1-year contract, for somewhere around $8 million. Per Jeff Zriebec at the Sun, on Orioles Insider:
"The deal is pending a physical and the terms of the deal aren't currently known, but Lee's camp has made it clear that the veteran was content with a one-year pact worth between $8 and $10 million that would allow him to improve his value in anticipation of becoming a free agent again next offseason."
Let's all breathe a collective sigh of relief and enjoy the New Year, before the haters come out in force.. I think this is a nice signing for them. More on this later.
December 31, 2010
Prospect Profile: Ryan Adams
I like Ryan Adams, especially his bat - he's a fun guy to watch hit. I've seen him play a few times at Bowie, and he ripped the ball on those occasions... It's not a perfect comparison, but he reminds me of a guy like Freddy Sanchez from the Giants; not that athletic (almost awkward), but has a nice swing, doesn't get unbalanced at the plate, and can drive the ball a little bit - same kind of tweener 2B/3B. The kind of hitter who could lead the league in doubles if he can play enough defense to hold down a full time major league job...
A few things you might not have known about Orioles infield prospect, Ryan Adams:
"Shaky on defense. Seems lost in the field at times and defense is still somewhat of a question mark. Strong, but inaccurate arm. A little slow on transfers, average range. His defense has come a long way and could play third in a pinch. Will have a lot of gap power but not a lot of home run pop. Good bat control. Makes hard contact and can hit to all fields. Projects as an average starter."
FanGraphs on Adams:
"... Adams had a solid offensive season in 2010 with a triple-slash line of .298/.365/.464 in 594 double-A at-bats. Adams his OK power (.166 ISO) for a second baseman but his power is below-average for the hot corner – and that is where he profiles best on defense. Adams also strikes out a little too much (22.8 K%) given his modest power output. There is a chance – although not great given his stature – that his solid gap power (43 doubles) could turn into more over-the-fence power. Adams has a very nice set-up at the plate. He has a well-balanced stance and a quick bat. His swing is nice and level and the bat carries well through the zone. The bat does get long at times. My one complaint would be that he carries his hands too low. Defensively, he doesn’t have the quickest feet but he has OK range. He’s definitely not the most athletic player at the keystone and I can understand why some see him as a third baseman."
A few things you might not have known about Orioles infield prospect, Ryan Adams:
- Was born in New Orleans, LA, on April 21st, 1987.
- 23 years old last season (2010), which is just about average for his level (AA).
- Stands 6'0", and is listed at 195 lbs (but looks shorter and stockier than that); he bats and throws righty.
- Was drafted (officially) as a 3rd baseman by the Orioles in the 2nd round of the 2006 draft, out of Jesuit High School in New Orleans.
- One famous alumni from that high school is former major league first baseman Will Clark, who hit .303 with 284 HR over 25 seasons with the Giants, Rangers, Orioles, and Cardinals.
- The pick with which the Orioles selected Adams (#14 is the 2nd round, 58th overall) was compensation from the Blue Jays for signing former Oriole reliever BJ Ryan.
- He was drafted 9 slots behind current Oriole RHP Chris Tillman, who was taken with the 5th pick in the 2nd round by the Seattle Mariners.
- Adams was signed by an Orioles' scout named Michael Tullier, for a bonus of $675,000.
- After being signed, the Orioles converted him into a second baseman, and he's played the majority of his games there since turning pro.
- He has showed solid command of the strike zone, and posted very solid walk rates in the low minors, but those have shrank some as he moved up the ladder. But he has consistently posted OBP's in the .350-.375 range.
- Doesn't have great speed, and isn't terribly athletic. Some scouting reports say that he ran better in high school, before he started having hamstring issues. Then bulked up, which cost him additional speed and flexibility. "Hits into more double plays than you would like, and strikes out a little too much."
- Confirmed that the power he showed at Low-A Delmarva in '08 wasn't a fluke, by posting a .298/.365/.464 line at Bowie (AA) in '10. That figure include 43 doubles and 15 HRs in a little less than 600 plate appearances.
- Ultimately projects as a gap hitter with line-drive power, with some home-run potential. His bat speed is only ordinary, but he uses a compact swing to drive the ball where it's pitched, and utilizes the whole field.
- His upside slash-line is probably somewhere in the neighborhood of .280/.340/.400.
- Defensively, he has decent actions and a nice first step, but below average range for a 2B, and sometimes gets unfocused... Probably projects more as a 3B, but might not have the bat to fill out the position.
- Was left exposed by the Orioles in the Rule 5 draft in December of 2010, but was not selected.
- Both John Sickels and Baseball America listed Adams as the team's 8th best prosect going into 2010; FanGraphs had him listed as #7.
"Shaky on defense. Seems lost in the field at times and defense is still somewhat of a question mark. Strong, but inaccurate arm. A little slow on transfers, average range. His defense has come a long way and could play third in a pinch. Will have a lot of gap power but not a lot of home run pop. Good bat control. Makes hard contact and can hit to all fields. Projects as an average starter."
FanGraphs on Adams:
"... Adams had a solid offensive season in 2010 with a triple-slash line of .298/.365/.464 in 594 double-A at-bats. Adams his OK power (.166 ISO) for a second baseman but his power is below-average for the hot corner – and that is where he profiles best on defense. Adams also strikes out a little too much (22.8 K%) given his modest power output. There is a chance – although not great given his stature – that his solid gap power (43 doubles) could turn into more over-the-fence power. Adams has a very nice set-up at the plate. He has a well-balanced stance and a quick bat. His swing is nice and level and the bat carries well through the zone. The bat does get long at times. My one complaint would be that he carries his hands too low. Defensively, he doesn’t have the quickest feet but he has OK range. He’s definitely not the most athletic player at the keystone and I can understand why some see him as a third baseman."
December 30, 2010
The Hall of Fame is not a Weapon
I'm not going to spend a lot of time on this, but I feel like I need to say it, like an elementary school principal:
"Boys and Girls: The Hall of Fame is not a Weapon. Put away your irrelevant opinions. Shut up about steroids. Stop judging EVERYONE. You're ruining this for the rest of us."
I've completely tuned out all of the Hall of Fame talk, to the point where I don't even want to read an article if I get a sniff of someone else's opinion about who's worthy of The Hall. Double that if they're talking about steroid use and how it impacted someone's performance. I don't even want to read the "objective" analysis that some really intelligent analysts have prepared, because at the end, it's just going to turn into some petty conversation about PEDs.
The Hall of Fame, to a lot of people, is sacred. I get that. It's one of the coolest places in the world to go, if you're really into baseball. The exhibits are fantastic, the atmosphere is great, and you can really lose yourself in it. There is no real substitute if you want to submerge yourself in baseball history for awhile. That's what makes people care about it, and because they care, they have strong opinions.
But what wrecks it for me is what Craig Calcaterra at Hardball Talk correctly referred to in his article today as a form of "Steroids McCarthyism". That's a great term, and it's exactly what turns me off: the constant suspicion. The arrogance of everyone, in the media or not, to assume that it's our job to weed out "the users" from "the straight guys" and make a value judgement in an absolute vacuum, devoid of real facts or evidence. That a player like Ken Griffey Jr is somehow above all of this (how could you possibly know that?), but maybe Jeff Bagwell isn't.
And what's even worse, we're arrogant enough to feel like we can judge someone who did use. Someone who was competing in a an ultra-competitive, mega-high-pressure landscape; someone who was reared in a professional baseball culture that for a long time wasn't just turning a blind eye to their use, but was essentially encouraging that type of behavior, because of the interest and revenue it produced.
None of us, regardless of our resumes or our experience or our egos, should feel comfortable doing that. And we should feel downright ashamed of the way we wield Hall of Fame induction around like the Sword of Truth, knighting those men who are "worthy" and making pariahs of those who are not, simply because we're "suspicious".
It's starting to make me sick. I just want it to stop. I know it won't.
"Boys and Girls: The Hall of Fame is not a Weapon. Put away your irrelevant opinions. Shut up about steroids. Stop judging EVERYONE. You're ruining this for the rest of us."
I've completely tuned out all of the Hall of Fame talk, to the point where I don't even want to read an article if I get a sniff of someone else's opinion about who's worthy of The Hall. Double that if they're talking about steroid use and how it impacted someone's performance. I don't even want to read the "objective" analysis that some really intelligent analysts have prepared, because at the end, it's just going to turn into some petty conversation about PEDs.
The Hall of Fame, to a lot of people, is sacred. I get that. It's one of the coolest places in the world to go, if you're really into baseball. The exhibits are fantastic, the atmosphere is great, and you can really lose yourself in it. There is no real substitute if you want to submerge yourself in baseball history for awhile. That's what makes people care about it, and because they care, they have strong opinions.
But what wrecks it for me is what Craig Calcaterra at Hardball Talk correctly referred to in his article today as a form of "Steroids McCarthyism". That's a great term, and it's exactly what turns me off: the constant suspicion. The arrogance of everyone, in the media or not, to assume that it's our job to weed out "the users" from "the straight guys" and make a value judgement in an absolute vacuum, devoid of real facts or evidence. That a player like Ken Griffey Jr is somehow above all of this (how could you possibly know that?), but maybe Jeff Bagwell isn't.
And what's even worse, we're arrogant enough to feel like we can judge someone who did use. Someone who was competing in a an ultra-competitive, mega-high-pressure landscape; someone who was reared in a professional baseball culture that for a long time wasn't just turning a blind eye to their use, but was essentially encouraging that type of behavior, because of the interest and revenue it produced.
None of us, regardless of our resumes or our experience or our egos, should feel comfortable doing that. And we should feel downright ashamed of the way we wield Hall of Fame induction around like the Sword of Truth, knighting those men who are "worthy" and making pariahs of those who are not, simply because we're "suspicious".
It's starting to make me sick. I just want it to stop. I know it won't.
Orioles News, Notes, and Links
- Roch Kubatko at MASN is reporting that the Orioles are interested in type A free-agent Grant Balfour. I like Balfour, but he's never really been a closer, and as a Type A free-agent, would require the O's to surrender their 2nd round draft pick in 2011. Those picks aren't gold, however...
- It's way too early to say with any confidence that the Orioles 1st round selection (5th overall in 2009) of RHP Matt Hobgood was a bust... but it hasn't been promising, so far. Not only has Hobgood struggled to be be average (barely) in his 1+ pro seasons, but he's been beset with conditioning and velocity issues. Now he's been diagnosed with a "rotator cuff strain", which will set him back and delay the beginning of his 2011 season. Per John Stockstill, the Orioles director of player development:
- The managers for several of the Orioles minor league affiliates have been set, and include: Gary Allenson - Norfolk (AAA), Gary Kendall - Bowie (AA), Orlando Gomez - Frederick (A+), and Ryan Minor - Delmarva (A-).
- Former Oriole Garrett Atkins signed with the Pirates. He's not a lock to make the 25 man roster out of spring training. Actually, that's an understatement. I should have said: "He's unlikely to make their 25 man roster our of spring training."
- Michael Wherley of The Sports Jury makes an argument that the Orioles should sign Brad Penny to be their closer. I mean, sure, why not? His 4 career games in relief have probably prepped him adequately for the role... and I'm sure he'll just make the switch like that (snap!). Hell, if anything, sign the guy to be part of the rotation.
- According to the SB Nation blog "Federal Baseball", which covers the Nationals, Derrek Lee would prefer to play for a west coast team that's a playoff contender. Not sure that's in the Orioles wheelhouse.
- MLB Trade Rumors considers the Orioles to be possible suitors for free-agent 1B Troy Glaus, if one they don't sign either Adam LaRoche or Derrek Lee. I really like Glaus's upside, and think he could be a nice pickup for the O's for 2011. People forget that he was a solid run producer during the 1st half for the Braves last year (.254/.361/.441 with 14 HR, in 85 games) before getting hurt.
- USA Today's Daily Pitch thinks that former Oriole Rafael Palmeiro's positive steroids test in 2005 will most likely keep him out of the Hall of Fame:
December 29, 2010
MLB News, Notes, and Links
- RHP Octavio Dotel (37) agreed to a 1-year, $3.5 million deal with the Blue Jays this week, to be their closer. He was marginally effective last season for 3 teams, aside from a terrible April, and can still be nasty against right-handed hitters (.576 OPS in 2010). But he gets the crap kicked out of him by lefties (.993 OPS), and in my opinion, is an absolute bottom of the barrel closing option at this point. He should never sniff the 9th inning.
- Former Tigers GM Bill Lajoie died this week at age 76. He was the architect of the 1984 Detroit championship team, and had worked for 5 different teams around major league baseball in various capacities; that list included the Tigers, Braves, Red Sox, Brewers, and Dodgers. Current Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski was quoted as follows:
"Bill played an integral role in building the Detroit Tigers into a world championship team in 1984 and a division title winner in 1987... Bill was a respected and highly regarded baseball executive who made significant contributions to the Tigers franchise and the game of baseball."
- LHP Takashi Saito, who at age 40 was dominating as a reliever for the Braves last year (2.83 ERA, 11 K/9 in 56 games), signed with the Brewers. It's a 1-year deal for $3.2 million; he'll help them if he can stay healthy (a big if). He's never had an ERA above 3.00 in any season of his 5-year MLB career (292 games).
- The Orioles are supposedly interested in free-agent reliever Grant Balfour; Balfour is a decent option from a purely baseball perspective (he could even close for them), but as a tier-1 free-agent, also comes with a 2nd round draft pick price tag... it's hard to give up high draft picks for relievers, two years running (e.g. Mike Gonzalez, last year).
- Former NL Cy Young winner Brandon Webb (31), who is trying to come back from a shoulder injury, signed with the Rangers over the weekend. The terms of the contract weren't disclosed, but it was thought to be in the $4-5 million range guaranteed, plus major incentives.
- Former Oriole Garrett Atkins signed a minor league deal with Pittsburgh. God Bless them.
- Ozzie Guillen's son Oney (yes, that's his real name) absolutely refuses to shut up... if you follow his Tweets (@Oneyguillen), it's like you're (one of 3000) following an insane person. This time, he blasted former ChiSox closer Bobby Jenks via Twitter. This is actually several tweets all cobbled together, which makes it slightly more interesting:
Why the Orioles Need an Ace
I don't even think I need to go into this too deeply to make my point. Look, I know that acquiring and then maintaining an elite starter is the hardest thing to do in baseball. I know that it's extremely expensive, and loaded with risk. And obviously, I also know that developing one yourself is an absolute crap-shoot.
But the dearth of talent at the top of the rotation for this team over the last decade is almost overwhelming... It has damaged the franchise, killed attendance, and absolutely crippled morale. There's just no reason to go to these games for most fans, honestly - not only have their top guys been disinteresting, they've been awful.... Take a look at this list of the team's opening day starters, and their performances, over the last 10 seasons:
Some things to think about:
But the dearth of talent at the top of the rotation for this team over the last decade is almost overwhelming... It has damaged the franchise, killed attendance, and absolutely crippled morale. There's just no reason to go to these games for most fans, honestly - not only have their top guys been disinteresting, they've been awful.... Take a look at this list of the team's opening day starters, and their performances, over the last 10 seasons:
Some things to think about:
- In general, the opening day starter is usually considered the team's best pitcher, year-over-year.
- The pitchers above have gone 86-120 (.417 winning percentage) combined , with a 4.87 ERA, in the year they got the nod on opening day. That's just a touch above replacement level.
- OUCH. Those are the O's best guys?
- 3 times those pitchers led the league in losses.
- 6 times, they had an ERA over 5.00.
- In 7 out of the 10 seasons, they had a losing record.
- None of these guys has a career ERA under 4.00, except Bedard. And he was immediately traded (a great deal, I agree), and had barely been able to stay on the mound since '07 due to injury.
December 28, 2010
Orioles Single Season Leaders: Doubles
In case you're wondering... this has absolutely no relevance to anything important. It just caught my attention, and it's a slow week for the Orioles and MLB.
I think it's interesting that 2B Brian Roberts, pretty much your prototypical lead-off hitter, has produced the 3 highest single-season doubles totals in Baltimore Orioles history... Beau Bell in 1937 had 51, which is second on the franchise list, but he posted that total while playing for the St Louis Browns, before the team moved to Baltimore. Roberts' 56 doubles in 2009 are far-and-away the club record, and he's posted a 50 double season three different times so far in his career.
Orioles Top 10 Doubles, Single-Season
Robert and Nick Markakis appear in the Orioles' Top 15 seven different times, combined. You can see the team's Top 50 list here, on Baseball Reference.
A few other interesting facts about this list:
I think it's interesting that 2B Brian Roberts, pretty much your prototypical lead-off hitter, has produced the 3 highest single-season doubles totals in Baltimore Orioles history... Beau Bell in 1937 had 51, which is second on the franchise list, but he posted that total while playing for the St Louis Browns, before the team moved to Baltimore. Roberts' 56 doubles in 2009 are far-and-away the club record, and he's posted a 50 double season three different times so far in his career.
Orioles Top 10 Doubles, Single-Season
- Brian Roberts, 56 (2009)
- Beau Bell, 51 (1937)
- Brian Roberts, 51 (2008)
- Brian Roberts, 50 (2004)
- Miguel Tejada, 50 (2005)
- George Sisler, 49 (1920)
- Aubrey Huff, 48 (2008)
- Nick Markakis, 48 (2008)
- Heinie Manush, 47 (1928)
- Cal Ripken, 47 (1983)
- Joe Vosmik, 47 (1937)
Robert and Nick Markakis appear in the Orioles' Top 15 seven different times, combined. You can see the team's Top 50 list here, on Baseball Reference.
A few other interesting facts about this list:
- Check out the 2008 season; Roberts (51), Aubrey Huff (48), and Markakis (48) all made the team's all-time top 10, and all 8 starting position players had 20+ doubles.
- Roberts has had two different seasons in which he's had 40+ doubles and steals in the same year, which is pretty impressive.. but there are lots of guys who have done that. Fewer (10) have had 45+ in the same season. There are only two who have ever had 50 doubles and steals in the same year - Tris Speaker (1912), and Craig Biggio (1998). Hanley Ramirez has come close twice, in 2006 and 2007.
- The 1937 St Louis Browns had two players make this list - Beau Bell and Joe Vosmik. Bell was an outfielder who had a really nice start to his career (.328/.383/.482 the 1st 3 years), but fell of a cliff after '37. Vosmik was a career .307 hitter, but '37 was his only season with the franchise.
- The 47 doubles record in 1983 by Cal Ripken were, obviously, part of the team's World Series Championship season. It was an MVP year for Ripken (his first of two, the other being 1991), and one of 3 times in his career he posted a WAR greater than 8.
- Miguel Tejada hit 50 doubles in 2005, part of a 4-season stretch of ridiculous production in his first stint as an Oriole; he hit .311 and averaged 36 doubles, 27 HR, and 107 RBI from 2004-2007.
Orioles News, Notes, and Links
- Since MLB, for the most part, shuts down over the holidays, there hasn't been a lot going on recently... and that's pretty much par for the course. And that's ok with me - I was still in my roast beef-coma until yesterday afternoon. My wife is a grade-A cook, and I'm expected to eat... I obliged.
- Jeff Zriebec at the Baltimore Sun blogged on Orioles Insider yesterday about the free agents the O's are still looking at (LaRoche, Lee, and Gregg), and what their current roster needs-list looks like. It's pretty much the same as it has been throughout December: 1st base, bullpen help, and starting pitching depth.
- Zreibec also posted about relievers that the O's might move their focus to, if Kevin Gregg doesn't accept their offer. He doesn't think Rafael Soriano is a realistic option (agreed), and instead suggests lower-cost options in RHP's Jon Rauch and Grant Balfour (I like both), and LHP Brian Fuentes (Uckk... I just don't trust him. At all.)
- Michael Werley at The Sports Jury prophesizes on the Orioles starting rotation for 2011. I don't completely disagree with him about the candidates (who really knows, at this point?), but he's predicting a total of 54 wins from rotation of Guthrie, Matusz, Bergesen, Arrieta, and Vanden Hurk. I think that's probably about 10 too many, at least from that group. I do find myself wishing that Zach Britton will be the #5, and they'll use Vanden Hurk in a bullpen/spot-starter swing role.
- The word around baseball is that Derrek Lee really has his choice between the Orioles and the Nationals... and is weighing his options. If I was Lee, I'd probably stick in the NL, where I'd played my whole career, and avoid the AL East. My guess is he'll sign with the Nats, unless there's another option that we don't know about (which there usually is).
- Steve Melewski at MASN wrote a piece yesterday about the top of the Orioles lineup. With the pieces in place now, he prefers a 1-2-3 of Roberts, Jones, and Markakis. I kind of hate that... but I get it. I just don't like Jones in the #2 hole unless he's hot, because he just doesn't get on base enough.
- Today, Melewski talked about how you can never have enough starting pitching... he thinks the team will add at least one or two back-of-the-rotation types, but believes the current rotation candidates are Guthrie, Matusz, Arrieta, Bergesen, Britton, and Chris Tillman.
- David Brown at Yahoo Sports talk about how Luke Scott's comments were one of the most interesting moments of the year.
- The folks at MLB Trade Rumors speculate that the Orioles, along with 7 or 8 other teams, might have some interest in 32 year-old free-agent RHP Chris Capuano, who went 4-4 with a 3.95 ERA with the Brewers last year, coming off Tommy-John surgery. He's won as many as 18 games in the majors, but missed all of 2008 and 2009.
- According to MASN's Roch Kubatko, the daughter of former Oriole Marty Cordova is in a coma, after being involved in a car accident while riding to school. Cordova played for the O's in 2002 and 2003.
- Ray Guilfoyle of Minor League Ball asked readers to speculate on whether the Brewer's Mat Gamel or Orioles 3B prospect Josh Bell is more likely to reach their potential. Before last season I would've said Bell, for sure... so I'll stick with that. One bad 1/4 season from Bell at the major-league level really doesn't mean much.
December 24, 2010
Marketing a MLB Franchise; Start with the Customer
There was an article posted by Craig Calcaterra on Hardball Talk yesterday, about how the Royals are going to market themselves, now that they've traded Zack Greinke. Greinke was the team's biggest star and it's most obvious drawing card; how will his absence impact the team's marketing activities, and subsequently, it's revenue?
When Kansas City team spokeman Tom Cooke was presented with this question, here was his response:
OK, I'm not sure if the Royals are handling this the right way, because I don't really know the details of their market, or their customers. But I do know that this type of situation is one where current MLB management teams have a huge advantage over their predecessors from prior decades, due to the focus they've placed on bringing in and developing strong business personnell, as opposed to just player personell.
A lot of people reading this will ask a very simple question: "Why do MLB teams need strong business people? That's not going to help them on the field." The answer is simple, too - because strong business people (marketing executives, business & product managers, product marketing managers, etc...) are the ones that design and execute the kind of initiatives which help ensure that when you do have to trade away your best player for a case of beer nuts and a $2 waffle iron, your fan base doesn't walk out the door behind them. Because if you have positioned your franchise (aka, your product) incorrectly with your fans, if you've ignored their needs and taken away the reasons that they're coming to the ballpark, watching your games on TV, and buying your merchandise... they will walk. And they will take their money with them, and spend it on something else. This isn't the 1950's, and baseball isn't the only game in town. There are way too many alternatives out there; the competition isn't just other MLB franchises, anymore. Teams are competing, in a sense, with every other entertainment option that might high-jack dollars from their bottom line, like other pro and college sports, bars, clubs, movies, coffee shops, online porn, etc...
The thing is, MOST major league teams do a pretty terrible job of this sort of thing, and get by simply because high-level professional sports are such a draw in our country. Organizations tend to be extremely disconnected from their fan base; they don't understand the fans' wants and needs, or what drives their behaviors. They don't know how often individuals attend games or watch them on TV, how much they spend, how they want to be communciated with, or what's going to make their park experience better. Their non-baseball projects, events, promotions and marketing programs aren't based on real data and definitely aren't supported by solid business cases; they're just shots-in-the-dark, or a copy of something someone else is doing... and the fan suffers because of it.
In my experience, you know who does this kind of thing REALLY well? Independent league teams. They HAVE TO. They have tiny budgets and rely on tiny profit margins, so every cent counts. These kinds of organizations have to know their customers pretty intimately, have to provide an experience that resonates with them, and they have to communicate their message effectively... if they don't, they're out of business within a year. A good example is the Southern Maryland Blue Crabs. By far, the best actual park experience I've ever had at a baseball game, period. I took my two daughters: we got in for cheap (somewhere aqorund $5 adults, $3 children), they had tons of food/beer options that weren't all that expensive, cheap game programs, a GREAT gift shop with tons of stuff, and most of the seats had shade. There were bumper boats and a kiddie pool in the outfield, a giant sandbox for the small ones, a big playground, and an actual f'ing midway/carnival... and this was just a mid-season game, nothing special at all. I spent about $50, and I didn't even mind, because everyone had such a good time, and I got so much for my money. It was the only game EVER where I wanted to leave before my kids did. AMAZING.
When Kansas City team spokeman Tom Cooke was presented with this question, here was his response:
"One of the things we constantly run into as a professional ball club — and other sports run into this as well — is, how do you use players in marketing the organization and avoid using them to your peril because they move? You don’t know what’s going to happen from year to year or even month to month. At the same time, you need to figure out a way to balance getting people excited about the product on the field with the product at the ball park.”
OK, I'm not sure if the Royals are handling this the right way, because I don't really know the details of their market, or their customers. But I do know that this type of situation is one where current MLB management teams have a huge advantage over their predecessors from prior decades, due to the focus they've placed on bringing in and developing strong business personnell, as opposed to just player personell.
A lot of people reading this will ask a very simple question: "Why do MLB teams need strong business people? That's not going to help them on the field." The answer is simple, too - because strong business people (marketing executives, business & product managers, product marketing managers, etc...) are the ones that design and execute the kind of initiatives which help ensure that when you do have to trade away your best player for a case of beer nuts and a $2 waffle iron, your fan base doesn't walk out the door behind them. Because if you have positioned your franchise (aka, your product) incorrectly with your fans, if you've ignored their needs and taken away the reasons that they're coming to the ballpark, watching your games on TV, and buying your merchandise... they will walk. And they will take their money with them, and spend it on something else. This isn't the 1950's, and baseball isn't the only game in town. There are way too many alternatives out there; the competition isn't just other MLB franchises, anymore. Teams are competing, in a sense, with every other entertainment option that might high-jack dollars from their bottom line, like other pro and college sports, bars, clubs, movies, coffee shops, online porn, etc...
The thing is, MOST major league teams do a pretty terrible job of this sort of thing, and get by simply because high-level professional sports are such a draw in our country. Organizations tend to be extremely disconnected from their fan base; they don't understand the fans' wants and needs, or what drives their behaviors. They don't know how often individuals attend games or watch them on TV, how much they spend, how they want to be communciated with, or what's going to make their park experience better. Their non-baseball projects, events, promotions and marketing programs aren't based on real data and definitely aren't supported by solid business cases; they're just shots-in-the-dark, or a copy of something someone else is doing... and the fan suffers because of it.
In my experience, you know who does this kind of thing REALLY well? Independent league teams. They HAVE TO. They have tiny budgets and rely on tiny profit margins, so every cent counts. These kinds of organizations have to know their customers pretty intimately, have to provide an experience that resonates with them, and they have to communicate their message effectively... if they don't, they're out of business within a year. A good example is the Southern Maryland Blue Crabs. By far, the best actual park experience I've ever had at a baseball game, period. I took my two daughters: we got in for cheap (somewhere aqorund $5 adults, $3 children), they had tons of food/beer options that weren't all that expensive, cheap game programs, a GREAT gift shop with tons of stuff, and most of the seats had shade. There were bumper boats and a kiddie pool in the outfield, a giant sandbox for the small ones, a big playground, and an actual f'ing midway/carnival... and this was just a mid-season game, nothing special at all. I spent about $50, and I didn't even mind, because everyone had such a good time, and I got so much for my money. It was the only game EVER where I wanted to leave before my kids did. AMAZING.
December 23, 2010
Ryan Berry - Prospect Profile
A few things you didn't know about Ryan Berry, one of the Orioles best minor league pitching prospects:
"As impressive as his numbers are, Berry's ceiling is somewhat limited. While it's possible that he could become a #2 starter at some point, a more reasonable ceiling is that of a #3 starter. I expect that his arm action will continue to cause health problems, and this may relegate him to the bullpen in order to keep him healthy and on the field... Some clubs will shy away because Berry has already begun to have arm issues, and some will shy away because Rice doesn't have the greatest track record of late when it comes to producing healthy Major League quality pitchers... Berry has impressed a lot of folks so far this spring, but he's going to have to prove that he's healthy before anyone will risk a first round pick on his arm. He could conceivably be drafted as early as the end of the 1st round or as late as the 10th round. The next two months will be very important for him."
This video of him pitching for Rice can be found on youtube:
Berry, describing his draft situation to the Houston Examiner:
"I was kind of expecting to go in the top three rounds. I think I did pretty well this season and not to get that phone call the first day was kind of disappointing. So the next morning, I left to go see one of my good friends on the baseball team up in Paris, Texas... So, all throughout the day, I was getting phone calls from scouts saying we'd like to draft you here, or we'd like to take you here. Finally, when Baltimore called me, which was a little bit later in the day than what I thought, I was really excited because they were one of the few teams that kept persisting...hey, we're gonna take you, we're gonna take you... When I finally got the phone call, I was actually sitting at the airport, (DFW)), waiting on my good friends' girlfriend to fly in. So, I kinda got a little nervous just sitting there. It was real nice to get that phone call."
- Born on August 3, 1988 in Houston, Texas; his full name is Ryan Paul Berry.
- Listed at 6'1", 195 lbs. Bats right, throws right.
- He features a fastball (sits 88-91, tops out at 92-93), a big 11-5 curveball (his best pitch), and mixes in both a slider and a change-up.
- His best asset as a pitcher is outstanding command of his top 2 pitches, especially the fastball.
- Graduated from Humble High high school in Humble, Texas. He was coached there by David Sitton, and earned All-State and All-District honors as a pitcher.
- Wasn't drafted out of high school, and went to Rice University to play baseball, as well as study Civil Engineering. (Smart dude. Rice academics are no joke.)
- Had an excellent year as a freshman, going 11-3 with a 3.01 ERA, and 125 K in 122 innings pitched. That earned him National Freshman Pitcher of the Year, 2nd Team All-American, and US National Team honors.
- Tied for the record for most wins by a Rice freshman; shared with Matt Anderson (1995) and Philip Humber (2002).
- Posted similiar results as a sophmore and junior, and finished up with a 26-10 collegiate record, and an ERA just a shade above 3.00.
- Was a 3-time Conference USA All-Star selection, from 2007-2009.
- Had some arm trouble in college, it was originally described as "muscular in nature" rather than structural damage; but ultimately it was determined to be a torn rotator cuff that required only rest, not surgery. Injuries cost him parts of his last two seasons.
- Worries about those arm troubles, and what scouts describe as a "relatively low ceiling. Maybe a #2, probably a #3 starter.." probably dropped him anywhere between 6-8 rounds in the draft.
- Experts had thought that with a healthy and effective junior year, he could have gone late in the first round.
- Selected by the Orioles in the 9th Round (266th overall) of the 2009 draft, after his junior season. Both he and the Orioles weren't sure whether he'd sign, or go back to Rice for his senior season. Berry was quoted as follows at the time:
- He was selected directly after Rice teammate Brock Holt, who went with the 265th pick to the Pirates. Holt went .351/.410/.438 last year at class A+ Bradenton, and has been converted to SS.
- The Owls had 5 players drafted that year, including: Holt (#265), Berry (#266), Diego Seastrunk (#927, Giants), Mike Ojala (#1036, Brewers), and Steven Sultzbaugh (#1246, Brewers).
- Berry made his pro debut in 2010, and pitched well, with a 3.22 ERA and 106 Ks in 117 innings between Low-A and High-A Frederick.
- Actually pitched better after being promoted.
- Will most likely start the season back at Frederick; there's an outside chance he could head straight to Bowie (AA).
- Is one of only two players named Ryan Berry ever to pitch in the minors. That's not including a player by the name of Ryan Berryman, who pitched 50 innings in the independent leagues in 1998.
- Baseball America and John Sickels from Minor League Ball each have listed him as the Orioles 9th best overall prospect.
- Sickels comments on Berry: "I liked him when he was at Rice, can be fourth starter or a good reliever."
"As impressive as his numbers are, Berry's ceiling is somewhat limited. While it's possible that he could become a #2 starter at some point, a more reasonable ceiling is that of a #3 starter. I expect that his arm action will continue to cause health problems, and this may relegate him to the bullpen in order to keep him healthy and on the field... Some clubs will shy away because Berry has already begun to have arm issues, and some will shy away because Rice doesn't have the greatest track record of late when it comes to producing healthy Major League quality pitchers... Berry has impressed a lot of folks so far this spring, but he's going to have to prove that he's healthy before anyone will risk a first round pick on his arm. He could conceivably be drafted as early as the end of the 1st round or as late as the 10th round. The next two months will be very important for him."
This video of him pitching for Rice can be found on youtube:
Berry, describing his draft situation to the Houston Examiner:
"I was kind of expecting to go in the top three rounds. I think I did pretty well this season and not to get that phone call the first day was kind of disappointing. So the next morning, I left to go see one of my good friends on the baseball team up in Paris, Texas... So, all throughout the day, I was getting phone calls from scouts saying we'd like to draft you here, or we'd like to take you here. Finally, when Baltimore called me, which was a little bit later in the day than what I thought, I was really excited because they were one of the few teams that kept persisting...hey, we're gonna take you, we're gonna take you... When I finally got the phone call, I was actually sitting at the airport, (DFW)), waiting on my good friends' girlfriend to fly in. So, I kinda got a little nervous just sitting there. It was real nice to get that phone call."
December 22, 2010
Jonathan Schoop - Prospect Profile
A few things you might not have known about Orioles minor league prospect Jonathan Schoop:
- He was born on October 6, 1991 in Willemstad, Curacao; he was only 18 years old last season (2010).
- Willemstad is exactly 1937 miles from Baltimore, MD.
- He's listed at 6'1", and anywhere between 180-190 lbs.
- Played on the 2003 Little League World Series Caribbean Champion. He was a SS then too, and was listed at 5'1", and 89 lbs. No, this is not relevant. But that's never stopped me before.
- As a foreign-born player, he was signed rather than drafted, on August 20th, 2008.
- Didn't have a great pro debut in '09, posting a .239/.320/.291 line in the Dominican Rookie league. His walk rate was solid, though, and he showed some speed with 11 steals.
- He improved significantly in 2010, showing the ability to hit for average and power. His final line was .290/.350/.453 in 240 plate appearances.
- Ranked 10th on the Baseball America Orioles prospect list, 7th by John Sickels, and 6th by both FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus.
- Per FanGraphs:
- Per John Sickels: "Grade C+: Not sure why, but this one stands out to me as a breakout candidate."
Dad, Darryl Strawberry, Stanley Jefferson, and Strikeouts in the Leadoff Spot
OK, my father was a lot of things, most of them nice, others not-so-much. But in my head, he was the world's foremost expert on baseball, specfically baseball as it was played during the period from about 1955, through the late 1960's. Others might dispute that (many others), but my brother and I both know the truth. There might be other people that knew more about the game in general; contracts, racial integration, day-to-day goings-on, etc... but nobody ever knew more about the type of baseball being played on the field at the time, or the players from that era. The man has obviously been obsessed. (Something which he passed along to his children.)
With that established, let's set the back-drop:
I was 11 years old, living in upstate NY, the Mets were in the World Series, and Darryl Strawberry had the audacity to strike out with runners on base. My dad went nuts. I'm talking whoo-whoo za-za type of nuts. Shoe through the televsion nuts. F'ing crazy.
Darryl was a huge sore-point for my father. HUGE. Darryl represented everything that he hated in a ballplayer: he was immensely talented, but unmotivated. He didn't run out pop-ups or weak grounders, treated fly balls as if they were live grenades, and had a great arm, but reguarly missed the cut-off man. He was loved by fans, but consistently acted both petulant and spoiled. He often referred to Darryl as "a waste of chromosomes", and could barely stand to watch him hit. But the thing that dad hated the most about Darryl was simple: strikeouts.
Dad hated strikeouts. He was introduced to baseball at a time when the strikeout was considered an act of weakness on the part of the hitter; if someone struck out more than 100 times a year, they were an absolute bum (I'm quoting, here). Mark Reynolds would've given him a coronary, no doubt about it.
So when Darryl struck out and my father went insane, I did what kids all over the world have done for centuries when their parents got irrationally (scarily) angry - I tried to defuse the situation, and changed the subject:
"Don't worry about it, dad. There's only one out. And Carter is coming up! Darryl's a bum, I know. But at least he doesn't strike out as much as Stanley Jefferson!"
Stanley Jefferson was a running joke in our house, because he struck out in about 1/3 of his plate appearances. He had gotten called up earlier than year, and looked completely overmatched as a hitter (but the next year he got traded for one of dad's favorite players - Kevin McReynolds. WHY he liked McReynolds is a story for another day). Jefferson's only redeeming value, in my father's eyes, was his speed; dad loved speed. I was sure that referencing Stanley would successfully shift the conversation, and allow us to continue watching the ballgame... I was sort of right:
"Jefferson? Jefferson!??! BAHHH! At least f'ing Jefferson is an f'ing leadoff hitter. It doesn't f'ing matter if those guys strikeout, anyway!"
This sort of freaked me out. Honestly. It changed my world-view. My dad saying it didn't matter if someone struck out? This is the guy who taught me to choke up three inches on the bat, just so I wouldn't fan and embarrass myself, and he wouldn't have to assault the umpire. What the hell was going on? He explained. To this day, I carry this around with me:
"It doesn't matter if a leadoff hitter strikes out, because he's never coming up wth men on base. In 1/4 of his at-bats, he's leading off the game. In all the rest of them, he's had the pitcher and the #8 hitter batting in front of him, and THOSE guys sure as hell aren't setting the table for him. Do you know how BAD you have to be to hit #8 in a national league lineup? That's where guys like Rafael Santana hit. Even if one of those guys gets on, there's going to be two outs when the leadoff hitter comes up. Who gives a crap if you strike out when there's two outs?"
"Nope, if you're going to strike out, then being a leadoff hitter is as good a place as any... DID CARTER JUST STRIKE OUT TOO? I can't believe these F'ing guys!..."
So this morning, when I read this article about who was going to hit leadoff for the Reds, Drew Stubbs or Brandon Phillips, this jumped right out at me:
"In a perfect world, Stubbs would represent more of an ideal leadoff man because of his speed. Last season, he had 30 steals and was caught just six times. In 155 games, the 26-year-old batted .255 with 22 homers, 77 RBIs, 55 walks and a .329 on-base percentage. The numbers that don't benefit the Reds to have Stubbs lead off are his 168 strikeouts and only three sacrifice bunts."
OK, so tell me this: given all of the above (the story, the emotional connection between father and son, the Stanley Jefferson and Darryl Strwaberry anecdotes, and dad's strangely rationale explanation for why strikeouts don't matter for leadoff hitters), then why the heck is someone making the ridiculous argument that Stubbs isn't suited to leadoff because of his strikeouts and inability to sacrifice bunt?
I'm not even touching the sac bunt thing. How often do you see a leadoff hitter, your best OBP guy, giving himself up to sacrifice a runner (usually the pitcher or the #8 hitter) to second base? Once or twice a year, late in a tight ballgame? MAYBE? It makes no freaking sense to even mention that as a criteria.
As for discounting Drew Stubbs because of the strikeouts, I'll let me father's explanation stand alone. If you want another reason, try his .328 career OBP. It's well below league average, and it makes no sense to give a guy who gets on base that infrequently the opportunity to make more outs than he already does. Hit him 6th, so that his speed gives the #7 hitter an opportunity to drive him in, and he still hits high enough in the order to get RBI opportunities that leverage his power.
If more people just heeded the wisdom of the late Mark Nolan, I wouldn't have to spend 30 minutes writing about stuff like this... sheesh.
With that established, let's set the back-drop:
I was 11 years old, living in upstate NY, the Mets were in the World Series, and Darryl Strawberry had the audacity to strike out with runners on base. My dad went nuts. I'm talking whoo-whoo za-za type of nuts. Shoe through the televsion nuts. F'ing crazy.
Darryl was a huge sore-point for my father. HUGE. Darryl represented everything that he hated in a ballplayer: he was immensely talented, but unmotivated. He didn't run out pop-ups or weak grounders, treated fly balls as if they were live grenades, and had a great arm, but reguarly missed the cut-off man. He was loved by fans, but consistently acted both petulant and spoiled. He often referred to Darryl as "a waste of chromosomes", and could barely stand to watch him hit. But the thing that dad hated the most about Darryl was simple: strikeouts.
Dad hated strikeouts. He was introduced to baseball at a time when the strikeout was considered an act of weakness on the part of the hitter; if someone struck out more than 100 times a year, they were an absolute bum (I'm quoting, here). Mark Reynolds would've given him a coronary, no doubt about it.
So when Darryl struck out and my father went insane, I did what kids all over the world have done for centuries when their parents got irrationally (scarily) angry - I tried to defuse the situation, and changed the subject:
"Don't worry about it, dad. There's only one out. And Carter is coming up! Darryl's a bum, I know. But at least he doesn't strike out as much as Stanley Jefferson!"
Stanley Jefferson was a running joke in our house, because he struck out in about 1/3 of his plate appearances. He had gotten called up earlier than year, and looked completely overmatched as a hitter (but the next year he got traded for one of dad's favorite players - Kevin McReynolds. WHY he liked McReynolds is a story for another day). Jefferson's only redeeming value, in my father's eyes, was his speed; dad loved speed. I was sure that referencing Stanley would successfully shift the conversation, and allow us to continue watching the ballgame... I was sort of right:
"Jefferson? Jefferson!??! BAHHH! At least f'ing Jefferson is an f'ing leadoff hitter. It doesn't f'ing matter if those guys strikeout, anyway!"
This sort of freaked me out. Honestly. It changed my world-view. My dad saying it didn't matter if someone struck out? This is the guy who taught me to choke up three inches on the bat, just so I wouldn't fan and embarrass myself, and he wouldn't have to assault the umpire. What the hell was going on? He explained. To this day, I carry this around with me:
"It doesn't matter if a leadoff hitter strikes out, because he's never coming up wth men on base. In 1/4 of his at-bats, he's leading off the game. In all the rest of them, he's had the pitcher and the #8 hitter batting in front of him, and THOSE guys sure as hell aren't setting the table for him. Do you know how BAD you have to be to hit #8 in a national league lineup? That's where guys like Rafael Santana hit. Even if one of those guys gets on, there's going to be two outs when the leadoff hitter comes up. Who gives a crap if you strike out when there's two outs?"
"Nope, if you're going to strike out, then being a leadoff hitter is as good a place as any... DID CARTER JUST STRIKE OUT TOO? I can't believe these F'ing guys!..."
So this morning, when I read this article about who was going to hit leadoff for the Reds, Drew Stubbs or Brandon Phillips, this jumped right out at me:
"In a perfect world, Stubbs would represent more of an ideal leadoff man because of his speed. Last season, he had 30 steals and was caught just six times. In 155 games, the 26-year-old batted .255 with 22 homers, 77 RBIs, 55 walks and a .329 on-base percentage. The numbers that don't benefit the Reds to have Stubbs lead off are his 168 strikeouts and only three sacrifice bunts."
OK, so tell me this: given all of the above (the story, the emotional connection between father and son, the Stanley Jefferson and Darryl Strwaberry anecdotes, and dad's strangely rationale explanation for why strikeouts don't matter for leadoff hitters), then why the heck is someone making the ridiculous argument that Stubbs isn't suited to leadoff because of his strikeouts and inability to sacrifice bunt?
I'm not even touching the sac bunt thing. How often do you see a leadoff hitter, your best OBP guy, giving himself up to sacrifice a runner (usually the pitcher or the #8 hitter) to second base? Once or twice a year, late in a tight ballgame? MAYBE? It makes no freaking sense to even mention that as a criteria.
As for discounting Drew Stubbs because of the strikeouts, I'll let me father's explanation stand alone. If you want another reason, try his .328 career OBP. It's well below league average, and it makes no sense to give a guy who gets on base that infrequently the opportunity to make more outs than he already does. Hit him 6th, so that his speed gives the #7 hitter an opportunity to drive him in, and he still hits high enough in the order to get RBI opportunities that leverage his power.
If more people just heeded the wisdom of the late Mark Nolan, I wouldn't have to spend 30 minutes writing about stuff like this... sheesh.
December 21, 2010
2011 World Series Odds
Aaron Gleeman at Hardball Talk wrote an article today about the impact that various free-agent signings and trades this off-season have had on the odds for the 2011 World Series; it's an interesting read.
I hadn't seen the odds yet for next year's Series, so I took a look. The O's are a big long-shot (rightfully), at 80-to-1. The Nats supposedly improved their odds after the Jayson Werth signing, moving from 80-to-1 up to 65-to-1. The real players are the Phillies, Red Sox, Yankees, Giants, and Twins. Nobody else figures at better than 20-to-1 odds, at the moment.
Here they are, courtesy of Bodog:
I hadn't seen the odds yet for next year's Series, so I took a look. The O's are a big long-shot (rightfully), at 80-to-1. The Nats supposedly improved their odds after the Jayson Werth signing, moving from 80-to-1 up to 65-to-1. The real players are the Phillies, Red Sox, Yankees, Giants, and Twins. Nobody else figures at better than 20-to-1 odds, at the moment.
Here they are, courtesy of Bodog:
MLB News, Notes, and Links
- According to Hard Ball Talk (NBC Sports), the Texas Rangers and free-agent RHP Brandon Webb could be close to a deal. Gotta love all the "could be", "might be", and "reportedly" talk that you hear this time of year, huh?
- The Rangers are trying hard to maintain the momentum they gained last year with a World Series appearance, but it become a lot more difficult when they lost Cliff Lee. Webb is one of the best pitchers in baseball when healthy, and he could really help them; the downside is that he's pitched only 4 innings since 2008 due to shoulder problems. Shoulder problems for pitchers, in case you have heard, are very bad: "If pitchers with torn labrums were horses, they'd be destroyed."
- Joel Keller @ Fanhouse interviewed Michael Shur, who once co-authored the popular FireJoeMorgan.com blog, and got his take on Morgan's dismissal from ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball. Shur is an interesting guy, having once been a writer for the TV Show "The Offfice", and now being the executive director for "Parks and Recreation". He's also Regis Philbin's son-in-law.
- According to FoxSports, Stephen Strasburg is making good progress in his elbow rehab. Strasburg had reconstructive surgery on the elbow back in September. According to the article, he's "..hoping to get in a few weeks of throwing before rejoining the Nationals when pitchers and catchers report for spring training in February."
- The NY Commission on Public Integrity fined governor David Paterson $62,125, for accepting five tickets to Game 5 of the 2010 World Series. Paterson got his story all mixed up, and generally came off looking like an idiot, but not necessarily a corrupt idiot. I think the commission should really get down off the high horse - it's the f'ing WORLD SERIES. And it's BEING PLAYED IN NY. What would it have looked like if the NY governor hadn't been there? Bunch of Mo-Rons.
- Rick Ankiel signed with the Nationals, for $1.5 million. That's not a bad signing for them, as Ankiel (30) has some pop, which they need, and could probably be a solid contributor in center field if a team just left him alone and let him hit his way through his sometimes lengthy slumps... Not sure if this paves the way from them to move Nyjer (riot-starter) Morgan out of town.
- The Marlins re-signed RHP Ricky Nolasco (28) to a 3-year, $26.5 million extension. Nolasco has been inconsistent, but has electric stuff, and has won 42 games for The Fish over the last 3 years. Florida's rotation is young and looks potentially nasty, featuring Nolasco, Josh Johnson (27), Chris Volstad (24), Anibal Sanchez (27), and recent free-agent acquisition Javier Vasquez (34). And that doesn't even include 21 year-old Alex Sanabia, but pitched very well in 72 innings last year.
- There's some buzz about that Chicago RHP Jake Peavy is looking really good coming back from injury, and might open the season in the rotation. That would be good news for Chicago, which is already pitching-loaded, but would like to keep 2nd year phenom (not an exaggeration) Chris Sale in the bullpen, at least for now.
- Sale was drafted in the 1st round in June out of Florida Gulf Coast University, then blew through the minors and cemented a spot on the ML roster for 2011; he posted a 1.93 ERA and 12.3 K/9 rate in 21 games in the big leagues late in the year.
- The Hardball Times identified 3 players they think could be sleepers in fantasy drafts this year, including Derrek Lee, Grady Sizemore, and Jason Bay.
Corey Patterson Signs With Toronto
Well, figured as much... former Oriole Corey Patterson signed with the Blue Jays today. I really liked him as their 4th outfielder, as he could play all 3 spots pretty well, and brought some much-needed speed to the lineup. You could play him every day for a week or two, and he wouldn't hurt you.
A little strange that he only signed a minor-league deal... I thought he provided enough speed, pop, and defensive flexibility to make up for his offensive shortcomings (career .253/.292/.404 slash-line), at least for a team that didn't need him to start.
His career numbers, courtesy of Baseball Reference:
A little strange that he only signed a minor-league deal... I thought he provided enough speed, pop, and defensive flexibility to make up for his offensive shortcomings (career .253/.292/.404 slash-line), at least for a team that didn't need him to start.
His career numbers, courtesy of Baseball Reference:
December 20, 2010
FanGraphs Article on Market Value
Really interesting article on the "two markets to acquire talent", which are available to all major league teams. Those are:
Which means: prospects are worth more than they used to be.
So what's that mean to Oriole's fans? That ultimately, according to the premise of this article, trading for players (like Hardy and Reynolds) using prospects as tender will bring more value this offseason (dollar-for-dollar) than free-agent signings will. Very interesting.
- Sign players via free agency.
- Trade for another team’s player, who is already under contract.
Which means: prospects are worth more than they used to be.
So what's that mean to Oriole's fans? That ultimately, according to the premise of this article, trading for players (like Hardy and Reynolds) using prospects as tender will bring more value this offseason (dollar-for-dollar) than free-agent signings will. Very interesting.
Orioles News, Notes, and Links
"The Orioles spent the 6th most on draft picks this season, and were only behind the Pirates for spending on high school talent. This means the talent they signed won't help them real soon, but it allows them to develop the talent within the organization under their tutelage."
- He posted scouting reports on a lot of the O's 2010 selections, including this one (which I thought was interesting) on catcher Wynston Sawyer (19), an 8th round pick out of high school in San Diego, CA:
Markakis and Yastremski: Career Parallels
OK, before I lose absolutely all credibility here, with that post title... I know. Save it, ok? But I found something interesting, and it made me think, so let's talk about it.
I'm a big Baseball Reference fan, and I like to poke around and see what I can find. I was looking at Markakis's career stats, and I thought to myself: "This guy is all over the place with power, but he's obviously a good hitter. Is there anyone else out there that profiles like this?". So I looked at his similarity scores, and the person he most closely resembles after his age 26 season is... whoa. Carl Yastremski?
Sometimes these things can be a little mis-leading, as a player might not have a solid historical peer, and the name that spits out is simply the closest that the algorithm can come up with. So I went the other way, and checked Yaz's comparables, and yep... at age 25 and 26, Markakis is the most similiar player in the database.
That seemed a little insane, as even as an Oriole fan, I don't really consider Markakis's performance to be of a special caliber... solid, yes, but also disappointing, in a lot of ways.
So I took a look at their age 22 through age 26 seasons, to see why the system was drawing the parallel:
You can see why BR sees them as comparables, at least through age 26.
Obviously, this does not mean that Nick Markakis is going to go on to have a Yaz-like (Hall of Fame) career. Like they say "Past Performance Does Not Guarantee Future Success", and someone else's past performance, no matter how similiar, is pretty much irrelevant.
But it did make me think, at least a little. Markakis was 26 years old last season. He's a productive hitter, even if he never improves beyond where he is, right now. We've all been disappointed in his power production, but he's been very consistent in terms of batting average and on-base ability, which means that he can control the strike zone.
I don't think many people would argue that the ability to control the zone is what separates good hitters from GREAT hitters. Even if a hitter doesn't walk, the ability to select and strike the pitch that you want to hit, as opposed to the one the pitcher wants you to hit, is the key to sustaiinable success. I think that Markakis's ability to control the zone is the primary reason why he compares well with Yaz, through similar stages in their careers.
Yazstremski was a good player, but not necessarily a great one, through age 26. I lived in Boston for a long time, and you always heard the stories there about how before his great year in 1967 (his age 27 season), he worked out like a madman with a personal trainer, and completely re-dedicated himself to being a baseball player. He was regularly quoted as saying that he turned the corner because he had spent the first part of his career learning to hit, and only after doing that did he figure out how to truly drive the ball. He broke out in '67 because he was confident, in his physical prime, and was finally playing for a team that could compete; 1967 was the first time in his career that he played for a team that finished above .500.
Now, I have no idea how well the Orioles are going to do this season; nobody does. If they say they do, they're lying, or just badly mistaken. And I also have do idea how Markakis will perform, individually.
But I do know that Nick is coming into his prime years now, and looked really good last September and October when the O's were on a roll, after Buck Showalter inspired the team. He looked like a different player - he actually looked like he was having fun. He looked inspired. That gave me hope.
In order for this team to do anything other than act as a doormat for the rest of the AL East, they need him to play a key role. They need him to produce. I don't even think it matters what form that production comes in, batting average, power, etc... it just needs to happen. And we all know he's capable.
I personally believe that this is the last year that Markakis tracks Yazstremski. I don't think he's that same kind of elite player, at least long-term. But I know that he's significantly better than what he's shown so far, and I think this is the year that he makes the jump. We'll check back in November.
I'm a big Baseball Reference fan, and I like to poke around and see what I can find. I was looking at Markakis's career stats, and I thought to myself: "This guy is all over the place with power, but he's obviously a good hitter. Is there anyone else out there that profiles like this?". So I looked at his similarity scores, and the person he most closely resembles after his age 26 season is... whoa. Carl Yastremski?
Sometimes these things can be a little mis-leading, as a player might not have a solid historical peer, and the name that spits out is simply the closest that the algorithm can come up with. So I went the other way, and checked Yaz's comparables, and yep... at age 25 and 26, Markakis is the most similiar player in the database.
That seemed a little insane, as even as an Oriole fan, I don't really consider Markakis's performance to be of a special caliber... solid, yes, but also disappointing, in a lot of ways.
So I took a look at their age 22 through age 26 seasons, to see why the system was drawing the parallel:
You can see why BR sees them as comparables, at least through age 26.
Obviously, this does not mean that Nick Markakis is going to go on to have a Yaz-like (Hall of Fame) career. Like they say "Past Performance Does Not Guarantee Future Success", and someone else's past performance, no matter how similiar, is pretty much irrelevant.
But it did make me think, at least a little. Markakis was 26 years old last season. He's a productive hitter, even if he never improves beyond where he is, right now. We've all been disappointed in his power production, but he's been very consistent in terms of batting average and on-base ability, which means that he can control the strike zone.
I don't think many people would argue that the ability to control the zone is what separates good hitters from GREAT hitters. Even if a hitter doesn't walk, the ability to select and strike the pitch that you want to hit, as opposed to the one the pitcher wants you to hit, is the key to sustaiinable success. I think that Markakis's ability to control the zone is the primary reason why he compares well with Yaz, through similar stages in their careers.
Yazstremski was a good player, but not necessarily a great one, through age 26. I lived in Boston for a long time, and you always heard the stories there about how before his great year in 1967 (his age 27 season), he worked out like a madman with a personal trainer, and completely re-dedicated himself to being a baseball player. He was regularly quoted as saying that he turned the corner because he had spent the first part of his career learning to hit, and only after doing that did he figure out how to truly drive the ball. He broke out in '67 because he was confident, in his physical prime, and was finally playing for a team that could compete; 1967 was the first time in his career that he played for a team that finished above .500.
Now, I have no idea how well the Orioles are going to do this season; nobody does. If they say they do, they're lying, or just badly mistaken. And I also have do idea how Markakis will perform, individually.
But I do know that Nick is coming into his prime years now, and looked really good last September and October when the O's were on a roll, after Buck Showalter inspired the team. He looked like a different player - he actually looked like he was having fun. He looked inspired. That gave me hope.
In order for this team to do anything other than act as a doormat for the rest of the AL East, they need him to play a key role. They need him to produce. I don't even think it matters what form that production comes in, batting average, power, etc... it just needs to happen. And we all know he's capable.
I personally believe that this is the last year that Markakis tracks Yazstremski. I don't think he's that same kind of elite player, at least long-term. But I know that he's significantly better than what he's shown so far, and I think this is the year that he makes the jump. We'll check back in November.
Orioles Retrospective: 1 Year Ago (Dec 20, 2009)
I always think it's interesting to turn back the clock a year or so, and see how our perspective on the Orioles has changed... or in this case, how this off-season and last are almost carbons copies of one another. This is a link to a Peter Schmuck article from the Baltimore Sun, from December 20th, 2009.
Read this, and tell me that if you changed around some of the names, it couldn't be used almost verbatim to sum up the off-season so far:
"...all progress is relative in professional sports. The Orioles have advanced over the past few weeks, but if real progress is measured by how much they have narrowed the gap in the American League East, it's hard to make a strong case that they have made any progress at all."
"The Boston Red Sox have signed the top starting pitcher in this year's free-agent market (John Lackey) to a long-term contract, and the New York Yankees acquired marquee center fielder Curtis Granderson in that three-team swap that also involved the Detroit Tigers and Arizona Diamondbacks."
"The Orioles, meanwhile, have made a handful of modest moves that make sense in the context of MacPhail's long-term strategy. There's just a huge difference between what makes sense and what is going to get fans excited. Lackey wasn't interested in coming here, and Granderson wasn't a fit, so it's not a matter of MacPhail getting one-upped by the club's two top division rivals."
"It's just that those big moves serve as the latest reminders that the Orioles still aren't ready to run with the big dogs of the AL East. Everybody around here already knows that, but the clamor for the Orioles to make a big trade for Adrian Gonzalez or a big play for free agent Matt Holliday is not just a knee-jerk display of fan frustration. That kind of spectacular move would be proof that MacPhail's long-term plan is actually getting close to fruition."
Wierd. He even alludes to the Gonzalez trade that just happened last week, except that it was the Sox who made it.
On another note, here are a couple other interesting tidbits, taken completely out of context to maximize their shock value. No offense at all to Peter - his article, regardless of how I make it sound here, was pointedly (and as it turns out, accurately) pessimistic:
"Kevin Millwood is a decent starting pitcher with a solid track record."
Read this, and tell me that if you changed around some of the names, it couldn't be used almost verbatim to sum up the off-season so far:
"...all progress is relative in professional sports. The Orioles have advanced over the past few weeks, but if real progress is measured by how much they have narrowed the gap in the American League East, it's hard to make a strong case that they have made any progress at all."
"The Boston Red Sox have signed the top starting pitcher in this year's free-agent market (John Lackey) to a long-term contract, and the New York Yankees acquired marquee center fielder Curtis Granderson in that three-team swap that also involved the Detroit Tigers and Arizona Diamondbacks."
"The Orioles, meanwhile, have made a handful of modest moves that make sense in the context of MacPhail's long-term strategy. There's just a huge difference between what makes sense and what is going to get fans excited. Lackey wasn't interested in coming here, and Granderson wasn't a fit, so it's not a matter of MacPhail getting one-upped by the club's two top division rivals."
"It's just that those big moves serve as the latest reminders that the Orioles still aren't ready to run with the big dogs of the AL East. Everybody around here already knows that, but the clamor for the Orioles to make a big trade for Adrian Gonzalez or a big play for free agent Matt Holliday is not just a knee-jerk display of fan frustration. That kind of spectacular move would be proof that MacPhail's long-term plan is actually getting close to fruition."
Wierd. He even alludes to the Gonzalez trade that just happened last week, except that it was the Sox who made it.
On another note, here are a couple other interesting tidbits, taken completely out of context to maximize their shock value. No offense at all to Peter - his article, regardless of how I make it sound here, was pointedly (and as it turns out, accurately) pessimistic:
"Kevin Millwood is a decent starting pitcher with a solid track record."
- Yeah, he was... but as an Oriole, he was a 4-16 bust with an ERA of 5.10, who allowed 30 HRs and was inconsistent all year. We were hoping for more. A LOT more.
- OR, he could completely suck, hitting like a middle-infielder and getting himself released a quarter of the way through the season.
- Kind of a double whammy on this one. We got excited about both Gonzalez and Bell, but the expectations didn't quite live up to all the advanced billing.
- Gonzo was bad, then he was hurt, then his velocity was down but he was ok... only ended up pitching in 29 games. Bell got promoted from AAA, but struck out a ton and his power didn't translate right away; that's a nice way of saying he got out-slugged by Cesar Izturis (.525 OPS, 2 walks in 161 PAs).
December 19, 2010
Ralph Friedgen: Probably Out as Terps Coach
This leaves a VERY bad taste in my mouth... from a report on ESPN.com:
"Maryland is forcing football coach Ralph Friedgen out... Friedgen, the Baltimore Sun reported, was told by university officials he cannot coach the team next season... Friedgen, who is in his 10th season, has been asked to retire but had not agreed to do so, the newspaper said. If he does not retire, Maryland can buy out the final season of his close to $2 million-a-year contract... Friedgen was named the Atlantic Coast Conference coach of the year after his team finished 8-4 this season."
Per the Baltimore Sun:
"Athletic director Kevin Anderson's options include Maryland buying out the final year of the coach's contract, but that hasn't been decided yet, multiple sources with knowledge of the situation told The Baltimore Sun. Friedgen's job uncertainty results from Anderson's desire -- which he has expressed in various settings -- to have the best coach, not only for next season, but for the long term. Since Maryland does not want a lame-duck coach, the school must determine whether Friedgen is the right man, not only for next season, but for well beyond."
The really hard parts for me to swallow are:
"Maryland is forcing football coach Ralph Friedgen out... Friedgen, the Baltimore Sun reported, was told by university officials he cannot coach the team next season... Friedgen, who is in his 10th season, has been asked to retire but had not agreed to do so, the newspaper said. If he does not retire, Maryland can buy out the final season of his close to $2 million-a-year contract... Friedgen was named the Atlantic Coast Conference coach of the year after his team finished 8-4 this season."
Per the Baltimore Sun:
"Athletic director Kevin Anderson's options include Maryland buying out the final year of the coach's contract, but that hasn't been decided yet, multiple sources with knowledge of the situation told The Baltimore Sun. Friedgen's job uncertainty results from Anderson's desire -- which he has expressed in various settings -- to have the best coach, not only for next season, but for the long term. Since Maryland does not want a lame-duck coach, the school must determine whether Friedgen is the right man, not only for next season, but for well beyond."
The really hard parts for me to swallow are:
- Anderson issued a statement on November 18th saying that Friedgen would be back for the final year of his deal. So what the hell is this? Very back-handed and dirty feeling.
- Friedgen was the ACC Coach of the Year and went 8-4 last year. The team is going to a bowl game. He has a 74-50 record over ten years, and the team has gone to bowls in 7 out of those 10 seasons. Is this really the right time to start talking about whether or not "he's the right guy"?
- I think that the athletic department's inability to sell out all the seats in Byrd stadium made the administration feel like it needed to make a big splash, potentially by bringing in someone like former Texas Tech coach Mike Leach. Leach's dynamic offense would be a boon to both recruiting and fan/alumni interest. Since he's currently available, they may feel like they have an opportunity, but have to move now. Kind of understandable, but it's still dirty.
Royals Trade Greinke to Brewers?
OK, I'm reporting on an off-season rumor again... but this one seems to have some clout behind it; I found the original article on ESPN, Big League Stew has talked about it, and Jim Breen @BerniesCrew tweeted this, this morning:
"Source tells me #Brewers have traded SS Alcides Escobar, CF Lorenzo Cain, and RHP Jeremy Jeffress for RHP Zack Greinke, SS Betancourt + $2M."
Here's what I think:
"Source tells me #Brewers have traded SS Alcides Escobar, CF Lorenzo Cain, and RHP Jeremy Jeffress for RHP Zack Greinke, SS Betancourt + $2M."
Here's what I think:
- Good for the Brewers, if it's true. This would give them a rotation of Grienke, Shaun Marcum, Yovani Gallardo, and Randy Wolf. That's the NL Central's version of NASTY. Watch out for both Greinke and Marcum moving to the National League.
- Not sure the Brewers would have any position player prospects left in the entire system. I think they'd be officially tapped out.
- Did the Royals get enough in this deal? Lorenzo Cain is a decent prospect who had a good 1/4 season in the majors, but he's also the same guy who hit .218/.294/.330 in the minors in 2009. Alcides Escobar was hyped pretty hard before last year, and has a ton of speed and potential, but also hit .235/.288/.326.
- The prospect jem in this trade for the Royals has to be RHP Jeremy Jeffres, a 2006 first-round draft pick who was converted into a reliever last year in the minors, and showed the potential to dominate. He came up late in the year and did the same at the big league level.
December 18, 2010
Orioles News, Notes, and Links
- Steve Melewski @ MASN talked about Orioles prospect Matt Hobgood with Dave Schmidt, the Orioles minor league pitching coordinator. Specifically, they talked about a known issue with Hobgood - his velocity.
- According to Jen Royal at MASN, the O's are getting close on Adam LaRoche; somewhere in the neighborhood of $16-$18 million over 3 years. I hope they land him.
- Brittany Ghiroli (from MLB.com) reports that Jason Berken and the O's training staff are both optimistic that he'll be back in time for spring training. Per Berken:
- Another not-so-juicy rumor: the Orioles aren't interested in Joe Blanton. You know it's the off-season and the winter meetings are already over, because the media is so bored that they've gotten to the stage where they're reporting on who the team isn't interested in. They're probably not interested in Harmon Killebrew, either, but I'm not writing that, am I? "Holy crap, the O's aren't interested in Keith Hernandez! They must hate Mexcians! Fire MacPhail!"
- The team is also supposedly interested in Marcus Thames. I should have guessed that, because this team has an obvious shortage of flawed outfielders with names that aren't pronounced the same way they're spelled.
Update on LaRoche
I really hate giving updates based totally on blog/twitter rumors, but what the hell... I'll do it anyways. It's not like there's a lot else going on right now in MLB, and trying to find background information on SS prospect Jonathan Schoop (one of my other projects) is a real pain in the tookus. There just isn't a ton out there (especially on english-speaking websites) about a 20 year-old dominican kid who wasn't much of a prospect until this part year... But I'll keep digging.
OK, back to the point of this post. Supposedly, the O's really are closing in on a deal with free-agent first baseman Adam LaRoche; somewhere in the neighborhood of 3 years, $16-$18 million. This according to MASN's Jen Royal, who, while new to the network, is reputed to be a pretty decent source. Those numbers look good to me - that's actually a little less than I thought he'd be asking for at this point, with the corner-infield options dwindling.
If they sign LaRoche, I will all of a sudden feel really good about this off-season; if they don't, I still feel ok. You can't thumb your nose at an off-season where management managed to acquire starters for the entire left side of the infield, can you?
Haters, don't answer that.
OK, back to the point of this post. Supposedly, the O's really are closing in on a deal with free-agent first baseman Adam LaRoche; somewhere in the neighborhood of 3 years, $16-$18 million. This according to MASN's Jen Royal, who, while new to the network, is reputed to be a pretty decent source. Those numbers look good to me - that's actually a little less than I thought he'd be asking for at this point, with the corner-infield options dwindling.
If they sign LaRoche, I will all of a sudden feel really good about this off-season; if they don't, I still feel ok. You can't thumb your nose at an off-season where management managed to acquire starters for the entire left side of the infield, can you?
Haters, don't answer that.
December 17, 2010
Orioles Top 10 Prospects: Weighted List (3)
I missed the Baseball America Orioles Top 10 Prospects, the first time around, when they published the list in early November. Came across it today, and figured I'd weigh in. Here's their list:
Baseball America, Top 10 Orioles Prospects
Just for fun, I threw John Sickels (preliminary) rankings together on the same chart with Baseball America and FanGraphs. Here's what you've got:
And because I have a geeky slant, I assigned points to their rankings, to get an overall score based on the three above... Here's how that came out:
Notice that there are only 11 total players included on the 3 lists... a little strange, huh? Kind of hard to believe that all 3 sources came up with the same list... The way this sort of thing works is, the first reputable publication/source that does a prospect ranking for a given year kind of serves as the baseline for everyone else. Before they do their rankings, folks check out what someone like Baseball America put, and they kind of move that around and slot in their favorites.
Some other interesting tidbits:
Baseball America, Top 10 Orioles Prospects
- Manny Machado, SS
- Zach Britton, LHP
- Xavier Avery, OF
- L.J. Hoes, 2B
- Dan Klein, RHP
- Wynn Pelzer, RHP
- Mychal Givens, SS
- Ryan Adams, 2B/3B
- Ryan Berry, RHP
- Jonathan Schoop, SS
Just for fun, I threw John Sickels (preliminary) rankings together on the same chart with Baseball America and FanGraphs. Here's what you've got:
And because I have a geeky slant, I assigned points to their rankings, to get an overall score based on the three above... Here's how that came out:
Notice that there are only 11 total players included on the 3 lists... a little strange, huh? Kind of hard to believe that all 3 sources came up with the same list... The way this sort of thing works is, the first reputable publication/source that does a prospect ranking for a given year kind of serves as the baseline for everyone else. Before they do their rankings, folks check out what someone like Baseball America put, and they kind of move that around and slot in their favorites.
Some other interesting tidbits:
- Notice how Matt Hobgood is nowhere on this list? That's what happens when you start ranking players before they'd had any meaningful pro experience, just because they're supposedly high-ceiling guys and high draft picks. That's one reason I don't like Baseball America's Rankings. You just have to hope that Manny Machado doesn't fall off next year.
- I still think Ronnie Welty should be on this list. Sickels didn't even include him in his Top 20; not sure why... but he did have him as an alternate. It's not like this organization has soooo many options to choose from.
- I like that FanGraphs went a different way and included RHP Bobby Bundy on this list, and dropped Ryan Berry. I actually like Berry MORE than Bundy, but it would've been pretty damn boring to have everyone agree, right?
The Sad Fate of the Ed Smith Stadium Eagles
This one bummed me out a bit... probably because as a parent, I believe that you SHOULD NEVER STEAL ANYONE ELSE'S BABIES! But maybe that's just me.
A month or so back, I posted about how there were two bald eagles nesting in an Ed Smith Stadium (the Oriole's spring training facility) light-tower. They had built a nest, and the female had laid two eggs. The birds weren't causing any trouble, but there were concerns that once the eggs hatched, the hatch lings would be in jeopardy. They need a lot of space, and that included time on the ground... right in the midst of a construction crew.
At the time, nobody really knew what would happen to the birds, because of state laws regarding the management of wildlife and endangered species.
The end result is that wildlife rehabilitators snatched the two eggs from the nest (before construction crews demolished the light-tower) to "discourage the adults from returning". (Yes, because that's what happens when children get kidnapped. The parents just go home and take a nap). To quote a spokesman for Florida's leading wildlife agency:
"The eagles are going to be upset, but that's part of the process."
A month or so back, I posted about how there were two bald eagles nesting in an Ed Smith Stadium (the Oriole's spring training facility) light-tower. They had built a nest, and the female had laid two eggs. The birds weren't causing any trouble, but there were concerns that once the eggs hatched, the hatch lings would be in jeopardy. They need a lot of space, and that included time on the ground... right in the midst of a construction crew.
At the time, nobody really knew what would happen to the birds, because of state laws regarding the management of wildlife and endangered species.
The end result is that wildlife rehabilitators snatched the two eggs from the nest (before construction crews demolished the light-tower) to "discourage the adults from returning". (Yes, because that's what happens when children get kidnapped. The parents just go home and take a nap). To quote a spokesman for Florida's leading wildlife agency:
"The eagles are going to be upset, but that's part of the process."
Yeah they're going to be upset, you stole their CHILDREN! I'm imagining two big-ass, near-hysterical giant eagles hunting down all these people while they're talking on their cell phones, stalking them from above as they drive, dive-bombing them on their back yard patios, etc...
If you stole my wife's kids, she would totally go Punisher on your ass. She would BURN YOUR HOUSE DOWN. Hope you sleep well, folks.
Mark Cuban and the BCS
OK, first let me say that I am an un-abashed Mark Cuban fan. Yes, he acts like as asshole. Yes, he says stuff publicly that should only be said behind closed doors. And yes, he's is a gigantic thorn in NBA commissioner David Stern's butt (that's actually a good thing, I think). But the guy is a passionate innovator, a brilliant marketer, and 100% all-about getting things done, and done right. His employees love him, and he's great for the NBA.
I wish he owned a baseball team, I really do. I can only imagine what might come out of that... he's the kind of catalyst the game needs; kind of an anti-Bud Selig. I hope that hits the radar screen for him again, soon.
But his current project, according to this article on Yahoo's Dr Saturday blog, is "fixing" the BCS. And I love it - if he can't buy a baseball team, than focusing on this mess would be my preferred second choice.
His idea, in a quote from the article:
"Put $500 million in the bank and go to all the schools and pay them money as an option... Say, 'Look, I'm going to give you X amount every five years. In exchange, you say if you're picked for the playoff system, you'll go.' [The BCS is] an inefficient business where there's obviously a better way of doing it. The only thing that's kept them from doing it is a lack of capital, which I can deal with."
I've never really understood what the hold-up is, really - it's seems obvious on the surface that a playoff system at the top of the bowl chain would yield a tremendous amount of interest, and accordingly, revenue. You wouldn't have to do away with the other bowls (or more to the point, the revenue that schools get from the other bowls) - they'll still be part of the equation. I don't know that it's really as simple as he makes it out to be, but what the heck do I know, anyway?
I wish he owned a baseball team, I really do. I can only imagine what might come out of that... he's the kind of catalyst the game needs; kind of an anti-Bud Selig. I hope that hits the radar screen for him again, soon.
But his current project, according to this article on Yahoo's Dr Saturday blog, is "fixing" the BCS. And I love it - if he can't buy a baseball team, than focusing on this mess would be my preferred second choice.
His idea, in a quote from the article:
"Put $500 million in the bank and go to all the schools and pay them money as an option... Say, 'Look, I'm going to give you X amount every five years. In exchange, you say if you're picked for the playoff system, you'll go.' [The BCS is] an inefficient business where there's obviously a better way of doing it. The only thing that's kept them from doing it is a lack of capital, which I can deal with."
I've never really understood what the hold-up is, really - it's seems obvious on the surface that a playoff system at the top of the bowl chain would yield a tremendous amount of interest, and accordingly, revenue. You wouldn't have to do away with the other bowls (or more to the point, the revenue that schools get from the other bowls) - they'll still be part of the equation. I don't know that it's really as simple as he makes it out to be, but what the heck do I know, anyway?
December 16, 2010
MLB News, Notes, and Links
- Sadly, Hall-of-Fame pitcher Bob Feller passed away earlier this week, after battling significant health problems over the last few years (including lukemia). He was 92 years old.
- The Yankees have quietly been stockpiling players, though nothing flashy enough to satisfy their fanbase or compete with the recent Red Sox & Phillies acquisitions. They re-signed Jeter, as everyone knows, and earlier this week also re-signed Mariano Rivera. They then went out and picked up a Dodger's non-tender, in catcher Russell Martin, and took a chance on former Cubs ace Mark Prior. They'll pick up another quality starter, before all is said and done this off-season.
- Padres closer Heath Bell is recovering at home from Typhoid Fever. I am not f'ing kidding. Typhoid Fever.
- The Red Sox got even richer today, signing RHP Bobby Jenks to a 2-year, $12 million deal, pending a physical. I'm not sure why, but this one bothers me more than the Crawford and Gonzalez deals...
- The Nationals have supposedly dealt Josh Willingham to the A's for "... two young players, one of whom has major league experience.", according to Buster Olney @ ESPN. The identify of those players has yet to be disclosed; rumor has it the Nats were looking for pitchers.
- The Twins agreed to terms with Japanese SS Tsuyoshi Nishioka, on a 3-year deal worth about $10 million. Nishioka is fast, won the Pacific League batting title last year, is a 5-time All Star, and has 3 gold gloves. A very nice pickup, which also made JJ Hardy expendable. If you're a Twins fan, you hope he's more like Ichiro and less like Kaz Matsui.
- Kerry Wood re-signed with the Cubs. They are absolute GLUTTONS for punishment. How is he only 33 years old?
- The ChiSox got smart, and re-signed free-agent Magglio Ordonez. The deal was for 1 year, $10 million. Ordonez turns 37 soon, and this will be his 15th year in the bigs; he's hit at least .300 in all but 3 of those. He hasn't hit lower than .292 since his rookie season in 1998.
December 15, 2010
O's Sign Jeremy Accardo
There were a couple of reports out there yesterday afternoon that the Orioles had signed two former Jays relievers: Jeremy Accardo and Kevin Gregg. Turns out that while the team has made him an offer, they're "still talking", and Gregg remains on the market. But the O's did sign Accardo (who turns 29 this weekend), to a 1-year deal worth $1.05 million.
Accardo was non-tendered by the Jays earlier this off-season. There's a nice write up about the signing in the Baltimore Sun this morning, with plenty of details. There were rumors earlier in December that the Dodgers were also pursuing him, but he chose the Orioles; more than likely because that gives him a better chance to make the major league team out of spring training. Per his agent:
"Jeremy was excited this offseason for the first time to have a chance to choose his employer... He embraces the chance to start fresh with a new organization, and he was very much impressed with the Orioles and their management."
Accardo was non-tendered by the Jays earlier this off-season. There's a nice write up about the signing in the Baltimore Sun this morning, with plenty of details. There were rumors earlier in December that the Dodgers were also pursuing him, but he chose the Orioles; more than likely because that gives him a better chance to make the major league team out of spring training. Per his agent:
"Jeremy was excited this offseason for the first time to have a chance to choose his employer... He embraces the chance to start fresh with a new organization, and he was very much impressed with the Orioles and their management."
Accardo, though not well known and down-on-his-luck of late, has been successful at the major league level before. In 2007, he took over for an injured BJ Ryan as the Jays closer, and went 4-4 with a 2.14 ERA, and 30 saves in 64 games. He got hurt in May of 2008, though (forearm), and spent most of the season on the DL. To this point, he's never really regained that 2007 form, and has bounced up and down from AAA.
I like this signing, given the depleted state of the Orioles' pen, and that it's small money and low risk. If he makes the team and perform, excellent. If not, then they're not on the hook for big bucks. I'm skeptical, though - Accardo has been hit hard even in the minors the last few years: 10.64 hits/9, and only 5.32 K/9 last year at Las Vegas (AAA).
A few things you might not have known about Jeremy Accardo:
- He's listed at 6'1", 190 lbs, and was born in Mesa, AZ.
- He features a fastball, changeup, and slider. He's lost a couple of mph off the fastball the last few years; his average velocity back in 2008 was 94, down to 93 in 2009, and the 92-ish last year.
- He attended Illinois State University, and was a 2003 Missouri Conference All-Star shortstop (interesting).
- Accardo wasn't terribly effective in college as a pitcher - in 16 games his junior year, he went 4-2 with a 5.95 ERA, had command issues, and didn't strike out that many hitters. He did hit .333 with 6 HR that year, though.
- Went undrafted out of college, and signed with the Giants as a free-agent in August of 2003.
- He progressed through the minors very quickly, making it all the way to Double-A by the end of 2004, and making his big league debut in May of 2005.
- He was traded to the Blue Jays in 2006, for Vinnie Chulk and Shea Hillenbrand.
- As mentioned above, he took over the Jays closer in 2007 and had a solid year, at one point posting 21 consecutive scoreless innings.
- Then injuries took their toll.
- He's earned approximately $2.1 million in the majors, prior to the 2011 season.
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