Thoughts on Duchscherer and Hendrickson

So, the Orioles made two transactions in the last two days, signing free-agent RHP Justin Duchscherer to a 1-year deal, and re-signing LHP Mark Hendrickson to a minor league contract, with an invitation to spring training.

A couple thoughts on Duchsherer (33):

• I was more suprised than most in 2008 when the A's moved him to the starting rotation, and he not only pitched well, he actually made the All-Star team.
• Yes, he got hurt, but his numbers before the injury that year were excellent. They were similiar to his numbers as a reliever, actually, if not better... which yes, is a little wierd.
• But even if he was pitching over his head, I'll take him. He doesn't overpower anyone (his average fastball velocity in '08 was just a tick over 85 mph), but he commands the zone well, throws all three of his pitches (fastball, slider, and curveball) for strikes, and won't beat himself; he doesn't walk anyone, and doesn't give up many home runs. That offsets a modest strikeout rate.
• His deal is for 1 year, with a base salary of just $700,000. His contract escalates to $1.1 million once he makes the 25-man roster, and includes numerous incentives that could ultimately raise his salary to over $4 million.
• Supposedly, he's going to start for them; he probably slots in as their #2 or #3, depending on how you feel about Brian Matusz. According to the Baltimore Sun:

"Duchscherer, 33, chose the Orioles over the Washington Nationals and the Seattle Mariners, partially because he wanted to be close to his son in southern New Jersey and also because the Orioles will allow him to compete for a spot in their rotation and won't be using him as a reliever, a role he held for much of his eight seasons in the majors."

I have a little less to say about Hendrickson (36), mostly this:

• His was a minor league deal with an invite to spring training. He's got a shot to make the team; if he makes it, it's not becuase he's more talented than the compeition, but because he's left-handed, and flexible.
• He's usually not bad against lefties, except for last year.
• He's.. tall.

Vlad's Real Impact On the Orioles Lineup? Meh..

A lot of people think that when you insert a "middle of the order" bat (which Vladimir Guerrero is consdered to be) into a lineup, it has a trickle-down effect that drastically changes the dynamic of the offense. In many scenarios, I agree with that.. but in Vlad's case, I don't - he's just not that kind of bat anymore.

Take a look at these two examples, both of which utilize per 162 game WAR averages for the last 3 seasons. Check out the total WAR value of the Orioles starting eight position players and DH, both with and without Guerrero:

What I see when I look at this is that Guerrero (WAR of 2.8 per 162 games; that's his offensive contribution, only), is an above-average player, but no longer a real difference maker. If he could produce numbers at his 2010 rates (a VERY big if, at age 36, moving into the AL East), the Orioles would be better with him in the lineup than without, but the difference between him and the other outfielders on the roster really isn't all that significant - maybe a few wins, tops. Here's why:

• Most people are impressed by his .300 AVG, 29 HR, and 115 RBI from 2010 (me too), but don't we as intelligent fans know enough by now to avoid being unduly-influenced by performances fueled heavily by high batting averages and a large number of plate appearances? 
• Guerrero's OPS+ last year in his "rebound season" was 122 , which is solid, but hardly elite. For example, Markakis's OPS+ was equivalent at 119, in what almost everyone considered a pretty terrible year for Nick.
• Vlad amassed 643 plate appearances last year, and was part of an excellent Texas lineup; he got a lot of run-producing opportunities, and definitely ran up his counting stats.
• But on a per-plate-apperance basis, his output wasn't that impressive. He walked only 30 times, and his ISO was only .196, which again, is solid, but isn't going to bowl anyone over - on the league leaderboards that would sandwich him squarely between Alex Gonzalez, the veteran SS (.197), and Chris Young, the Diamondbacks CF (.195). Not exactly awe-inspiring company. 
• And despite batting in the middle of that Texas lineup, he only scored 83 times, which says to me that he can't really run anymore at all, which is a major liability.
• To put his 2010 season into a context that O's fans can relate to, Luke Scott's OPS+ last year was 142, which was good, and significantly better than Guererro's, but nobody is talking about The Caveman as a superstar.
• But "superstar" is exactly the kind of rep that Vlad carries; at this point it seems like that's more about reputation and counting stats than anything else.
• I heard a few folks on the radio today (ESPN 1300) talk about how Orioles management was "nickel-and-diming" Guerrero, as they were "only" offering around $5 million for one year, and how that figure should be closer to $8 million, so as to not "insult" the guy.
• I guess my answer to that would be... if another team was knocking him over with a larger offer, would he even be talking to a team like the Orioles, if they were  truly low-balling him? They have to at least be in the ballpark; the market is just lower than he obviously would have liked.

BR List: Most Career HR, 5'6" or Less

This is a truly cool view.. yesterday, Steve Lombardi at Baseball Reference posted a list that addresses the following: "Since 1901, who has hit the most career homeruns of any player with a listed height of 5' 6" or less?"

There haven't been a ton of these guys, and the list pretty much looks like you expect.. except for Hack Wilson at the very top, who has 400% more home runs than Tommy Leach, who's in 2nd place.

Now, I think at some point I knew that Wilson was relatively short in stature, but I had no idea that he went only 5'6", 190 lbs. Think about that - that's a lot of muscle packed onto a very small frame. Wilson played from 1923-1934, for the Giants, Cubs, Dodgers, and Phillies; he finished his career with a .307/.395/.545 slash-line, and 244 career home runs. His 191 RBI in 1930 is still the major league record, ranking him ahead of "bigger" players like Lou Gerhig (184), Hank Greenberg (183), Jimmy Fox (175), and Babe Ruth (171). All five of these players, including Wilson, are in the Hall of Fame.

A few other interesting things about this list:

• Nobody else on it hit more than 57 HR (Tommy Leach, 1901-1918).
• Of the 62 players listed, only 5 of them made their major league debut within the last 50 years; that includes Walt Williams (1964), Freddie Patek (1968), Onix Concepcion (1980), Rafael Belliard (1982), and Donnie Sadler (1998).
• All of those players, with with exception of Walt Williams (OF), where middle infielders.
• There are a couple other REALLY good players on it, including Phil Rizzuto, Rabbit Maranville, Willie Keeler, and Joe Sewell; all are in the Hall of Fame as players. Miller Huggins is in the Hall as a manager.

Post-Draft YouTube; Joe Jordan on Manny Machado, Zach Britton

Sometimes you find really nice nuggets of information and video when you're hunting around on YouTube; the following is a 4 minute interview by MASN's Jim Hunter of Orioles Scouting Director Joe Jordan. In the interview, they talk a lot about Manny Machado and the rest of the team's 2010 draft class, touch briefly on Zach Britton, and walk through the scouting/draft process a bit.

There are a lot of video featuring Machado, who's a lot taller and rangier than I originally thought. Definitely worth watching.

Andy Van Slyke Quote

"With the Cardinals everybody would be reading the business section to see what their stocks were doing. You get to the Pirates locker room in the morning and everybody's looking at the sports page to see if Hulk Hogan won."
- Pirates OF Andy Van Slyke
The Sporting News; October 10, 1988

Balancing Irrational Organizational Priorities in MLB

OK, so it was a rough day at my day job today; lots of conflicting priorities, too many people with needs, but none with anything more than hunches or other anecdotal nonsense to either quantify or qualify them. Pretty typical, really - just more intense than usual.

But what it did - now that I'm home and it's quiet, and my brain is re-focusing on other things - was get me thinking about how major professional sports are forced to operate under such a ridiculously non-standard business model. Especially major league baseball.

Think about it. In a typical business (depending on where you are on the maturity continuum, as it differs for new businesses vs established ones), revenue growth is #1, and profit is #2. It can be the other way around, but those two things are always paramount. You really need both, especially long-term, and they swap places a lot. Unless you're running something of a non-profit nature, of course.. but those businesses chill me to the freaking bone, so I'm not talking about them here.

In professional sports, WINNING is #1. Always. And your primary consumers (fans) will tear you to shreds if they catch you thinking otherwise. Which of course, you have to. But you kind of have to pretend that you aren't, or at least, you have to come up with an awesome excuse when it's obvious that you are.

In a normal business, you're in it to make money. It's obvious and it's expected, and nobody takes any offense to it, because if you don't, you shut down, and your stakeholders can't re-coup their investment. Everyone loses. Pretty much end of story. But professional sports operate under the most extreme magnifying glass in the entire business world, and have this wierd-ass community-ownership component; every fan feels they have a stake and a say, to some extent, and they simply do not give a crap about your bottom line. And unfortunately for owners, those fans are their lifeblood; the business can't exist without their support - and they aren't capitalists. To them, the results aren't measured in terms of dollars and cents, they're interpreted from wins, losses, and championships. At the end of the day, revenue and profit are essentially irrelevant to anyone other than the owner.

That's strange, folks. And damn hard to do a good job with. Almost impossible. In this kind of situation, you're constantly juggling fan needs and expectations against the need to balance your budget. And those two don't reconcile under free-market conditions. Or even under pseudo-free-market conditions, like those that exist in pro baseball.

Now, it's much easier on the owners in sports with a hard salary cap. Infinitely easier. You have a maximum amount that you can spend on players, and it's the same for every team. To a very real extent, that eliminates the constant pressure by fans for the owner to overspend on players, and player salaries are the #1 cost center in pro sports. The emphasis moves away from salaries, and I think that's a relief to everyone involved: owners, players, coaches, and fans alike. The NFL is thriving under this kind of system.

I wish they had a hard cap in baseball, but they don't, though I think it's inevitable. The system probably can't survive in it's current format, at least not long-term. Feel free to disagree with me, but... you'll be wrong. The sport is so competitive now that the obvious market inefficiencies are drying up, and when new ones come into play, they're much less significant than before. The gap between the haves and the have-nots keeps growing, and there is less and less inefficiency for the have-nots to be smarter about and take advantage of. Eventually, it just comes down to resources, and those are largely driven by location, and of course, population.

Now, guys like Bud Selig and others at MLB (Andy MacPhail will take his place, eventually, write it down) will get creative and push off that day for as long as humanly possible. They'll extend the playoff system, juggle the divisions, grant additional rights to have-not teams that lose players, etc.. and it could even work. For awhile. But not forever. Eventually they (the owners) are going to have to decide to stick to their guns and stand firm against the union, lock them out for a season or more, and force a hard salary cap into the equation. And it will SUCK, for everyone. Fans will be pissed, players will go insane, and the owners will lose a ton of money. Teams might even fold, other leagues might get formed, there will be dogs and cats sleeping together, you name it.

But eventually, it will work out for everyone. A system that utilizes a hard cap can be fair to owners and players alike, as long as that cap represents a percentage of revenue, and that percentage is negotiated, and subsequently adjusted, regularly.

But really, my whole point to this post is that the system is insane. I'll leave you one thing to think about as I close this one out - over the last 2+ years, the Pirates got absolutely skewered by their fan base and the other owners alike, because it turns out that they were $20 million more profitable than they said they were, and they didn't immediately turn around and "invest" that money into player salaries that wouldn't likely have furthered the fans win/loss goals any further, anyway.

The bastards. How could they NOT waste money on unproductive siginings? That's what everyone else is doing! It's only fair! What? They say they want to invest in the draft (which they did)? BAH! Liars! HOARDERS! String them up!

The world is nuts. Feel free to disagree.. but again, you'd be wrong.

Guess-timating the Orioles Selection at #4

This MLB draft is always hard to figure. Teams make picks for all sorts of reasons, and every franchise has a different agenda (which they seem to change at the drop of a hat). Highly rated guys drop quickly due to sign-ability concerns; others can go entirely unnoticed, then light it up for half a year and end up an early round pick. High school selections often decide to go to college if they don't get picked quite high enough, or get picked by the "wrong" team, or they don't get the kind of bonus they're looking for.. etc.. Draft-eligible college juniors sometimes use their leverage and go back to school for their senior seasons, others play like crap in the Cape Cod league and scare scouts off. Plus, there's 50 frigging rounds to the thing, and you have to think about the JUCO guys, who are hard to scout because the quality of the competition is all over the place... Yuck. What a mess.

And unlike the NFL draft, you usually don't see these guys for at least a few years after they're selected. There's no instant gratification factor, unfortunately. All this together makes the draft a little hard to embrace.

But let's toss all that out, have a little fun, and pretend we actually know something - let's try to figure out who the Orioles will pick at #4 this year (behind the Pirates, Mariners, and Diamondbacks). I'm not in any way an expert on amateur players, but like a lot of other people, I follow it pretty closely through the TV and online. Here are some of the players that I see appearing often in the top 5 or 10 on mock-draftboards for 2011:

• Anthony Rendon, 3B, Rice - before a nasty ankle injury (dislocated/broken) this summer, he was probably the consensus #1 overall pick... now it depends on his recovery. Tons of power, he gets compared to guys like Evan Longoria a lot... probably won't be around when the Orioles pick unless he takes a serious step backwards. Slash line of .394/.539/.801 last year.. that's a 1340 OPS. Yowser. Good defensively, too. Only drawback is his size: he's listed at 5'11" and only 170-180 lbs.
• Archie Bradley, RHP, Broken Arrow Senior HS (OK) - the issue with Bradley is that he's already committed to play QB for Oklahoma in 2012. His potential as a RHP is unquestioned - mid 90's heat off a 3/4 delivery; his fastball bores in on right-handed hitters, his 80-82 mph curve is sharp, and he commands it well. Doesn't have off-speed stuff to go with it yet, but is supposedly developing a straight change. Might take a lot to sign him, with OK ready to put him under center.
• Gerrit Cole, RHP, UCLA - went to the national championship game with the Bruin's last year; a starter who supposedly has a mid-90's fastball, double-nasty curveball, and great peripherals. Struck out 11.2 per 9 in 2010, gave up only 4 home runs in 123 innings. Could go #1 if Rendon isn't that guy.
• Matt Purke, LHP, TCU - was drafted 14th overall last year but didn't sign; the Rangers didn't want to match his (significant) contract demands. He's a skinny guy (6'4", 180-190 lbs) with funny glasses, when you see him he looks left-handed, if you know what I mean... Low-mid 90's fastball and nasty breaking stuff. Struck out close to 11 batters per nine last year.
• George Springer, OF, UConn - Decent size (6'3, 200 lbs), very toolsy, very project-able, and also very productive. Keith Law from ESPN called him the top prospect in the Cape League; he's got great wheels, and profiles as a 20-20 guy. Hit .337 with 18 dingers last year, and stole 33 bases in 35 attempts.
• Sonny Gray, RHP, Vanderbilt - is small-ish and hasn't been overly-hyped, but pitched very well for the Commodores last year, and really asserted himself for team USA over the summer. Questions about his size (5'11) and lack of a 3rd pitch make some scouts wonder if he'll end up in the bullpen.
• Bubba Starling, RHP/OF Edgarton HS (KS) - there's a great article about Starling on omaha.com; read it, and you'll end up wanting this guy to marry your daughter. There are a few drawbacks: he's committed to Nebraska as a QB, his agent is Scott Boras, and he wants a $10 million signing bonus.
• Dylan Bundy, RHP, Owassa HS (OK) - runs 6'1", 200 lbs, so he's not overly big, but scouts look at his huge legs and trunk, and project him as a workhorse power pitcher. Can hit 95, sits at 93. His brother Bobby is already in the Orioles system.
• Taylor Jungmann, RHP, Texas - sort of wierd mechanics; some people think he's been a bit over-hyped because he's the best pitcher in an elite program... but he's won 19 games and lost only 6 over his first two collegiate seasons with the Longhorns, with an ERA of 2.02. Another hard thrower who has excellent size (6'6"), he can spot the fastball and has a quality slider that could develop into a truly nasty weapon.
• Henry Owens, LHP, Edison HS (CA) - there's some talk around that he might be the top high school arm in the nation. Very project-able at 6'7", 185 lbs, and growing (he supposedly wears size 17 shoes). Definitely a high-ceiling guy. Good fastball that gained a lot of juice last year, sits in the low-90's. A great senior year puts him solidly at the top of the draft.

CCHC's Take - Honestly, there's a TON of talent at the top this year, and the Orioles can't afford to bust on a #1 pick (HOBGOOD!). I'd avoid all the high-school pitchers and George Springer from UConn, because of the bust factor. They way it looks now (which will change) Cole, Purke, and Rendon will probably all be gone by #4; but either Sonny Gray or Taylor Jungmann will probably be sitting there waiting to be taken. They should go ahead and do so.

Orioles News, Notes, and Links

• It's sounding more and more like the Orioles are going to sign Vladimir Guerrero... according to ESPN: "Vladimir Guerrero and the Baltimore Orioles are making progress in their talks for a 2011 contract, sources tell ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney."
• As has been discussed a million times in a million places, that's a move would most likely put The Caveman (Luke Scott) in LF; I am 100% ok with that. I'm also ok with either Pie or Reimold getting moved as a result. I'd rather it was Pie.
• CBS Sports just did their fantasy preview for the Orioles for 2011;  it was more optimistic than I expected. They have Brad Bergesen listed as a sleeper candidate, and Mark Reynolds as likely to bounce back.. I am a fan of both concepts.
• The Orioles infielder Nick Green to a minor league contract, to compete for a utility spot on the roster this spring. This will be his 8th major league team.
• Zach Britton is supposedly yoked up about competing for a spot in the rotation. I have bad news for him (which he probably knows already) - yes, he'll pitch in the big this year, but they won't bring him up for awhile, just to keep him from gaining the extra year of service time. Especially as a hot prospect, and Scott Boras client.
• Both Britton and 2010 1st round draftee Manny Machado were listed on MLB.com's 50 top prospects list, which came out earlier this week. Britton is #19, and Machado #24.
• LHP Troy Patton got drunk, drove around, and got caught. Patton has an outside chance to make the team as a LOOGY; may be less-so now.
• RHP and free-agent Justin Duchsherer, who hasn't been healhty for awhile now and is coming off of hip-surgery, worked out for the team this week. He's 33, but if the health issues are gone, could really help them in the rotation OR the pen; he's 33-25 with a 3.13 ERA for his career, all in the AL with the Rangers and A's.

CCHC Quotes of the Day (Major League, 1989)

"Every newspaper in the country has picked us to finish last. The local press seems to think we'd save everyone a lot of time and trouble if we just went out and shot ourselves. Me, I'm for wasting sports writers' time. So, I'd like to hang around and see if we can give 'em all a nice big shitburger to eat."
 - Lou Brown

Harry Doyle: That's all we got, one goddamn hit?
Color-Guy: You can't say goddamn on the air.
Harry Doyle: Don't worry, nobody is listening anyway.

"The post-game show is brought to you by... hmmm... Christ, I can't find it. To hell with it."
- Harry Doyle

"Bats, they are sick. I cannot hit curveball. Straightball I hit it very much. Curveball, bats are afraid. I ask Jobu to come, take fear from bats. I offer him cigar, rum. He will come."
 - Pedro Cerrano

Orioles 2010 System Leaders: OPS

The following are the Orioles organization leaders in strikeouts for the 2010 season, with a minimum of 100 plate appearances:

A few notes about this list:

• Obviously the only major leaguer on it was Luke Scott, who was 3rd at .896. It says a lot about your offense when no other player at the MLB level cracked the top 10.
• Tyler Townsend was #1, which is unsuprising; the guy absolutely rakes when he can stay on the field... he just needs to stay healthy and play a full season, and the counting stats will match his already impressive rate stats.
• David Anderson (#2) went undrafted out of Costal Carolina in 2009, so he obviously isn't a big prospect. But he is a big guy (6'6", 230 lbs), and has posted a .272/.396/.482 line (and .878 OPS) during his first two pro seasons in the low minors.
• #4 Tyler Kolodny is a 3rd baseman who strikes out a lot and has had a hard time maintaining his batting average, but also has significant power potential. The former 16th round pick (2007) posted a .251/.365/.525 line at Low A in 2010.
• Jacob Julius (#5) is already 24 years old, and an organizational-type guy; a 1st baseman who only produced OPS levels in the high .600s in '08 and '09. 2010 was a breakout year (of a sort) for him.
• #6 Joe Mahoney was the O's 2010 minor league player of the year; I've written about him a bunch on this blog. His supporters point to his huge frame, power potential, a .300+ batting average last year, and his stolen base totals... his detractors note that he'll be 24 this year, still hasn't played a full year at Double A, and doesn't walk enough.
• Joel Guzman (#7) finally realized that he'd burned through his prospect currency years ago in the Dodger's organization, and even a 33 HR 2010 at Double-A Bowie wasn't going to get him a real shot at major league playing time. He took the money and signed to play in Japan; we might see him again if he produces overseas, as he certainly has the potential.
• #8 Mychal Givens and #9 Ryan Adams are the only middle infielders on this list, and two of the team's top position player prospects. Givens might end up at second base because of Manny Machado; the organization doesn't like Adam's defense at either 2B or 3B, so who the heck knows what his ultimate destination might be.
• #10 Ronnie Welty is my favorite sleeper prospect; the 2008 20th round draftee has produced solid numbers at every level through High-A Frederick, and will probably open the year at Bowie. Critic say he's too much of a tweener - not enough power to play a corner spot, not enough speed and range to play center - but his minor league line is solid: .291/.360/.445. If there's a major problem with his game, it's the strikeouts: 159 last year in only 130 games.

The Opportunity Cost of Matt Hobgood

Steve Melewski at MASN recently talked to Joe Jordan, the Orioles director of scouting, about former 1^st round draft pick Matt Hobgood. Jordan reaffirmed that while Hobgood hasn’t produced as a pro, he was healthy when drafted; the team believed they were getting a tall, strong workhorse with a fastball that sat 92-94 and topped out between 96-97, with solid breaking stuff. He suggests that somewhere along the line, Hobgood’s health just deteriorated.

CCHC’s Take – most experts didn’t agree with the Orioles’ selection of Hobgood in 2009; the consensus was that he was a “signability” pick (a player that’s probably picked higher than he should be, because he’s likely to sign with the team at an affordable rate). You can’t hold Jordan and his team entirely responsible, as Hobgood definitely hasn’t been healthy; we hopefully haven’t seen him at full strength yet. But still, we thought it was a very risky pick then. I have to admit, though… I didn’t hate it.

This next part isn’t fair, hindsight being 20/20, but I’m going to do it anyway… I’d like to look at the opportunity cost of drafting Matt Hobgood with the 5^th overall pick, two years ago. By that, I mean what kind of value did the Orioles give up by making that selection, as opposed to another one? To do that, we have to know what options were available at the time - the following is a list of the top players drafted after Hobgood, in the 1^st round:

I didn’t use any kind of objective criteria to make this evaluation, but from what I can tell, you shouldn’t really need any. I’d say that 8 of the next 10 picks would absolutely have been better options than Hobgood at #5; and the 6 players drafted directly behind him (#6 through #11) would ALL have been better selections. The only exceptions would be Aaron Crow (#12, Royals), who’s now 24 and posted an ERA near 6.00 last season, and Matthew Purke (Rangers, #14), who didn’t sign.

I’m not trying to kill the O’s here, I’m really not. The MLB draft is a bitch, because there are so many players out there, and they span high school, JUCO, and 4-year colleges. It’s impossible to scout everyone well, and it’s very easy to make a mistake; or even make a good pick that just busts.

Let’s toss in another wrinkle – here’s Hobgood’s pre-draft 2009 scouting report, which is posted here on MLB.com. I highlighted the parts I thought were interesting:

·          Fastball: Hobgood threw his fastball in the 89-92 mph range and went right after hitters with it.

·          Fastball Movement: Has heavy, hard life.

·          Curve: A plus pitch, 11-to-5, true curve, thrown 74-79 mph. It has the chance to be the best high school curve in this class.

·          Slider: It's slurvy at 80 mph, and is a usable pitch.

·          Changeup: Didn't show a changeup and may lack a feel for it.

·          Control: Has average high school command, but was throwing to the radar gun a bit too much.

·          Poise: Exceptional. He challenged hitters, daring them to try and hit him. He has a little mean streak on the mound.

·          Physical Description: Hobgood is a big, physical animal -- like a Josh Beckett type.

·          Medical Update: Healthy.

·          Strengths: Size, strength and durability. Also has two plus pitches now, with the intangibles to be a front-of-the-rotation starter.

·          Weaknesses: Doesn't show a feel for a changeup. He lands a little hard and will have to soften his front side a little to hone command.

·          Summary: Hobgood is a big, strong right-hander with two plus offerings in his heavy fastball and outstanding curve. Some small tweaks to his delivery should help him find even better fastball command. If he can add a changeup to go along with his other offerings and his tremendous mound presence, he has the chance to be a front-of-the-rotation starter in the future.

Aside from the velocity, that doesn’t seem all that different from Jordan’s assessment. Given that, can you kill the Orioles for this pick? I really can’t… Yes, this scouting report sounds a bit more like a mid-late first round pick than an early one (I HATE taking high school pitchers early, because of the increased risk factor), but if he was the best player on their board, then it wasn’t insane.

SO I guess that’s my point of the whole thing: 

The Orioles selection of Matt Hobgood was not insane. 

For some reason, that doesn't make me feel ANY better.

Orioles Retrospective: September 23rd, 1999

Found some cool facts that I've been meaning to post... I was doing some research, and noticed that the MLB record for doubles in one game is four, shared by a whole crapload of guys. It's happened about 49 times since 1880. The cool part is that out of all those guys, only one, the Orioles Albert Belle, has ever done it more than once. He did it twice, and both of those actually came in the same season (1999), and less than a month apart; the first on August 29th against the Tigers, the second on September 23rd, against the Oakland Athletics.

A couple things about September 23rd 1999, and the Orioles franchise in general, around that time period:

• The Orioles were playing a double-header that day against the A's, and the team was on a 13-game winning streak.
• Despite the streak, they weren't having a good year. 1999 would turn out to be their 2nd consecutive losing season, and the last for Ray Miller as manager.
• Miller's 2-year tenure (157 wins, 167 losses) was considered a collassal failure, and that happenned despite the team having the largest payroll in major league history (to that point) in 1998, at $74.3 million. 
• Miller got the job when Davey Johnson "resigned under pressure" (aka, was fired by owner Peter Angleos) in 1997, the same day that he won the American League Manager of the Year award.
• It was Belle's first year with the team; before the season, he signed the largest contract in franchise history at the time, for 5-years, and $65 million.
• His tenure with them started well; he hit a 3-run HR on opening day. But a month into '99 he wasn't talking to the press, and by the end of the year, Angelos was looking for ways to void his contract.
• So enough said about that... by September 23rd, the team was 18 games behind the Yankees, and going nowhere.
• They lost the first game, and that pretty much deflated everyone so badly that Belle's four doubles in the nightcap barely even got noticed.
• Much-hyped Orioles pitching prospect Mat Riley made just his 2nd major league start in that game at age 19, and went 4 and 2/3 innings, walking 7. Management should have seen this as a sign of things to come... his career never took off, due to a combination of injuries and control problems.
• Ryan Minor started at third base for the O's. Minor (now an Orioles minor league manager) is famous for one major thing: being the guy who replaced Cal Ripken at 3rd base in 1998, and ended his streak at 2,632 consecutive games played.
• The homeplate umpire for that game was Jim Joyce, who gained some noteriety in 2010 by blowing a call at first base that would've secured a perfect game bid for Detriot LHP Armando Galarraga.
• Future Orioles Miguel Tejada and Ramon Hernandez both started that game for Oakland; Miguel hit 9th and played shortstop, Hernandez hit 7th and caught. 1999 was Hernandez's rookie season, and the first 20-HR year for Tejada.
• 1999 was the only time in his career that Oriole OF Brady Anderson, who started the game, posted an OBP above .400, and the last time he would steal 30 or more bases.

Oh yeah... one other cool thing about the four doubles in one game thing: the next year (2000), both Johnny Damon of KC and Shannon Stewart of Toronto did it... on the same day: July 18th, 2000. I checked, they weren't playing each other. THAT would've been extremely cool.

Orioles News, Notes, and Links

• The guys at Orioles Insider recently posted their version of the Orioles Top 10 Minor League Prospects; I don't have any major problems with their list, with one major exception: Matt Hobgood (#10) does not belong anywhere near the Top 10, at this point.
• The annual Orioles Fanfest is two weeks away, and will be held on Saturday January 29th, from 11am to 6pm, at the Baltimore Convention Center. You can purchase tickets on MLB.com, here.
• MLB Trade Rumors lists the Orioles as a potential suitor for free agent-to be Prince Fielder, during the upcoming offseason. They note that he'll be demanding upwards of $15 million per year, perhaps in the $20 million range, and that the Angels, Blue Jays, Cubs, Dodgers, Giants, Mets, and Rangers would also be interested:

"The O's made a run at Mark Teixeira two winters ago, so we know they have the ability to support a $20MM a year player. Derrek Lee is on a one-year deal, and Andy MacPhail could choose to add that big power bat just as his young players start to mature."

• RHP Brad Bergesen (25), who will probably be the Orioles #3 starter to begin 2011, was recently in Baltimore for a medical review of his right shoulder. He (rather famously) injured the shoulder while filming a TV commerical last year. Supposedly, all was well and Bergesen is feeling great. He was 8-12 with a 4.98 ERA last year, but pitched significantly better in the 2nd half.
• The Hardball Times posted a piece yesterday morning, trying to determine how much Mark Reynolds might improve statistically, if he cut down on his strikeouts by about 30 per year:

"If we rewrite his forecast, substituting his real-life numbers with a lowered strikeout rate (30 per season) and holding his rate of home runs per balls in play and types of non-home run hits constant, we actually see a pretty dramatic increase in performance. Reynolds’ forecast batting line is raised to .256/.350/.513 with 35 homers and a .374 wOBA (+22 runs). This improves his forecast WAR to 4.4, a full win of improvement."

• Roch Kubatko @ MASN posted an article this morning about the effect of having Buck Showalter in place as the manager, and how that may have influenced some off-season free agent decision-making.
• 1B Joe Mahoney, who won the Orioles Minor League Player of the Year award last season, is supposedly healthy and "ready to go" after having minor surgery on his knee in October.
• According to Jeff Zriebec at the Baltimore Sun, Andy MacPhail is still trying to add pitching depth, in the form of a lefty reliever, or a veteran starter. Orioles Insider lists guys like Jeremy Bonderman, Justin Duchscherer, Freddy Garcia, and even Kevin Millwood as "available" rotiation options, but MacPhail  refused to comment on any of the team's current targets.
• The current consensus seems to be that the only way the Orioles would bring in Vladimir Guerrero is if the market for DH's completely dries up, and he essentially falls into their lap at a low asking price. That's possible, but unlikely. If a move like that happened, Luke Scott would most likely be the everyday left fielder, and either Felix Pie or Nolan Reimold would probably head to the minors.

2010 in the Orioles System: 20+ SB

Because it's mid-January and the hot-stove league is pretty cold at the moment, I've spent a lot of time this week looking at Orioles minor league / franchise stats. It kills the time.

Now, I've said it many times on this blog before, but I love me some steals. Any kind, really. Steals of 2nd, steals of 3rd, steals of home; 1st inning steals, 9th inning steals, steals with a 10-run lead; steals on lefties, delayed steals, double steals... YOU NAME IT, I love it. It's a disease, really; my father passed it along to me, with first-person accounts about guys like Maury Wills, Lou Brock, Ron LaFleur (honest), etc... Plus, I grew up watching Vince Coleman and everyone else on the 1980's Whitey Herzog Cardinals tear the Mets catchers apart every year, and literally steal the NL East title, season after season... even though I hated them for it, I also became addicted to it. IMHO, the stolen base edges out strike-throwing power pitchers as the most interesting thing in baseball.

Side Note - I know that folks might argue that the triple and the inside-the-park home run are more interesting than the stolen base, but I'd counter that by saying that the those things don't happen often enough to be the "most interesting" thing in baseball, and are, by nature, almost fluke occurences; you can't realistically watch an at-bat for any player and say to yourself "I hope this guy hits a triple", and have it happen regularly enough to walk away with any sense of satisfaction... it's kind of like saying "I hope I'm going to cath a foul ball on THIS PITCH.... Ughhh. Damn. We'll get them next time." It's a losing wager. But when someone like Rickey Henderson gets on base, the probability of a steal is high enough that committing yourself to that hope isn't mutually inclusive of dooming yourself to disappointment. Get my drift?

It's pretty well known that the Orioles organization hasn't emphasized the stolen base much, historically, and that's still the case... they just don't have a ton of players that can run, and most of those that can are flawed enough in other ways that they'll probably never even sniff the major leagues, unless it's an emergency call-up, etc... with 1 or 2 notable exceptions. Just for fun, I pulled together some numbers:

• There were 186 players in the Orioles system (both in the majors, and at all levels of the minor leagues) that had at least 1 plate appearance during the 2010 season.
• Of those 186, only 10 (5.4%) recorded 20+ stolen bases for the year.
• To put this into context, the Orioles had 9 minor league affiliates in 2010. That means that there was only about 1 player at each level who swiped more than 20 bags.
• That's even taking into account the lower levels of the minors, where players who can fly, but have serious flaws in their game, are still pretty abundant.
• The Oakland Athletics, who haven't exactly been known as a running team in recent years, had 3 guys on their major league roster with 29 or more steals last year. We had only 3 guys in the whole organization who stole more than 29.
• The top 10 franchise steals leaders are listed, below:

• The franchise steals leader was OF Kyle Hudson (23), with 40 @ Frederick (High-A). Hudson is similiar to Matt Angle (24) in that while he can run, plays good defense, and has good on-base ability, he's almost completely devoid of power; he posted an isolated power number of .044 in 2010, which is absolutely anemic.
• The best overall prospect on this list is probably OF Xavier Avery, who was ranked as the #3 prospect in the Orioles system by Baseball America during the offseason. 
• Avery stole 38 across two levels (High-A Frederick, and Double-A Bowie).
• From what I've heard, however, is that while he's a great athlete (Baseball America listed him as the best in the organization), he's not a real fluid basestealer or defender, at least at this point. He gets caught stealing a lot, takes bad routes to balls, and has poor footwork.
• Brian Conley isn't on this list, and is completely un-renowned, but I like his skillset a lot. Good speed (21 steals), a little bit of pop (.129 ISO), and mad on-base skills. Walked 70 times in 414 plate appearances last year at Delmarva. Problem is, he's wayyyy to old (24) for Low-A, and as 17th round draftee in 2008 (out of Towson), will probably expire in the low minors.

To put this in context of Orioles history, here are the ten best stolen base seasons in franchise history, I think it says volumes about your offensive priorities when 3 of the top 4 stolen bases seasons in your franchise's history were posted by white dudes:

Orioles Minor League Wierdness; 2010

A couple of 2010 stats generated by players in the Orioles minor league system that I thought were just plain odd... see for yourself:

• Outfielder Matt Angle got almost 400 plate appearances @ Triple-A, and had only four doubles... and the guy is fast. Shouldn't you just leg out 15 doubles by default with his kind of wheels?
• "Light-hitting" shortstop Robert Andino led the Norfolk Tides (AAA) in runs, hit, doubles, and RBI... and he was 3rd in HR, with 13. I know those are all counting stats, and he got a ton of PAs, but that still surprised the heck out of me.
• Joel Guzman, who was just 25 last year playing at Bowie, by far-and-away led the Orioles organization in HR with 33, and RBI with 98; he also set a career high in walks. Then they let him go as a minor league free agent... Dude has been typecast as a career minor leaguer, and will play overseas in 2011.
• Former MLB outfielder Joey Gathright hit .185 in a half a season (244 PAs) in Norfolk. Ouch. His OPS was .477. I think that's almost impossibly low.
• RHP Brandon Erbe (who many still have high hopes for) was 0-10 in 14 starts at Norfolk. That's just plain hard to do.
• Delmarva shortstop Garabez Rosa recorded 478 plate appearances last year, and walked just 7 times. He averaged one walk every 18 games.
• Rosa also accomplished another cool feat in 2010: he committed 46 errors at shortstop. That's... I don't know what that is.

Bud Selig on Upcoming Labor Talks

"Look, the thing that I've said all along is that there's a constructive relationship now... Negotiations are always tough. They have their players to represent, and I understand that. Rob and his people will do the same thing... The one thing, I guess, which is shockingly different is that back then there was the anger expressed all the time. Owners were mad at owners. Owners were mad at the union. Everybody was mad at the Commissioner, whoever that was at the time. And you haven't seen or heard of any of that in last five to 10 years. So I think we're on a very constructive path."

- MLB Commissioner Bud Selig, when asked about the upcoming collective bargaining negotiations between MLB and the Player's Association. The existing agreement expires on December 11th, 2011; there is no work stoppage expected.

CCHC Quote of the Day: Mike Mussina

"This was, without a doubt, the longest season of my life...We were bad. I lost a lot of games I should have won, and the atmosphere was just awful. People in Baltimore were upset because they thought I was leaving, and they let me have it, which hurt because I didn't think they understood what was going on. What we asked for in spring training was not at all unreasonable in the market we were in. By the end of the year, I knew it was time to go someplace else."

- Former Orioles Ace Mike Mussina, commenting on the atmosphere created by the team's struggles and his own pending free-agency during the 2000 season, in John Feinstein's book Living on the Black.

Orioles News, Notes, and Links

• Kevin Gregg took his physical this week; once the results are back, he and the Orioles will make the contract official. Unless he fails... then things would get awkward.
• Steve Melewski at MASN wrote today that Orioles prospect Cameron Coffey (20), who has missed most of the last two years with injuries (Tommy John and unrelated shoulder tendinitis), is supposedly recovered now, and just hoping for a heathy year in 2011. You have to feel for this guy - I hope he does well this year, and starts to work his way up from the lower minors.
• According to MASN's Roch Kubatko, reliever Jim Johnson is focused and ready for the season, and understands that he needs to re-establish his value to the franchise:

"I think it's pretty much every year that I've got to prove myself all over again... By no means do I feel like I'm established to where I want to be. I think I still need to prove things."

• There was a nice piece posted on Camden Chat that focused on the increasing payroll gap between baseball's haves, and have-nots:

"Of the 15 teams with the highest payrolls, 11 have winning records over the past 12 years. Of the 15 teams with the lowest payrolls, 11 have losing records over the past 12 years. If you want to make the case that it's all about shrewd front offices, then essentially you're indicting a whole lot of GMs (who happen to have less money at their disposal) as incompetent, while lauding a whole lot of GMs (who happen to have more money at their disposal) as the best and the brightest. We can all snicker about the Yankees' abilities to pay Carl Pavano $40M to ride the pine, but when you see the bigger picture, you have to conclude that they're not the only ones who can effortlessly absorb contracts that would bankrupt a club like the Royals or Pirates. This is, quite frankly, an unfair advantage which has nothing to do with being shrewd and everything to do with ability to assume risks."

• Also according to MASN, the Orioles re-signed 5 minor league free-agents over the holidays, including pitchers Jose Diaz, Alberto Castillo and Chris George, and catchers Steven Lerud and Michel Hernandez.
• Alfredo Simon's lawyers stated on Monday that they have several witnesses willing to come forward that will exonerate Simon in the wrongful-death case against him in the Dominican Republic.

Orioles Prospect Profile: Tyler Townsend

A few thing you might not have known about Orioles first base prospect Tyler Townsend:

• Tyler Pierson Townsend is currently 22 years old (as of 2011), and was born on May 14, 1988 in Lewes, Delaware.
• He's listed at 6'3" 215 lbs, bats left-handed, and throws right-handed.
• He's the son of Wallace and Cindy Townsend, and has one brother (Scott), and two sisters (Brandi & Paige).
• Played four years of baseball and two years of basketball at Cape Henlopen High School, in Lewes.
• In 2006, he earned both the Gatorade Player of the Year and the Louisville Slugger Player of the Year for the state of Delaware, and was also selected as a Baseball America First Team All-American, after hitting .600 with 8 home runs, 34 walks and 32 RBI as a senior.
• Had surgery on his throwing shoulder during the 2007 off-season.
• Regardless of his stats and the accolades, he wasn't highly recruited coming out of high school; he chose Florida International University (FIU) over Delaware State and Towson.
• Was named as a Sun Belt Conference First Team All-Star, and a Louisville Slugger NCAA Division I 1st Team All-American as a junior in 2009, when he mashed Sun-Belt pitching for a .434 AVG, 24 HR, and a sick 1380 OPS.
• He also logged 77 RBI and 182 total bases that year, both FIU single-season records. He also holds the FIU career RBI record, with 164.
• Was consistently recognized for academic achievement throughout his college career.
• He was drafted by the Orioles in the 3rd round of the 2009 draft, the 85th player taken overall.
• Was the 2nd-highest drafted FIU player ever, second only to Josh Banks, who was selected in the 2nd round by the Toronto Blue Jays in 2003.
• Signed with the team for a bonus of $417,600.
• Was absolutely terrible in his debut as a pro in 2009, posting a .143/.226/.303 line in 130+ plate appearances at Low-A Aberdeen. A lot of people speculated that his poor production was largely the result of a July wrist injury.
• Healthy again (for awhile), Townsend improved dramatically in 2010, knocking pitchers around at Low-A Delmarva to the tune of  a .342/.398/.556 line, in 128 PAs. He was promoted to Frederick, but then got hurt again (hamstring), and didn't come back until August.
• Went back and forth between playing in Arizona or Australia this off-season; but he played only one game in the AFL before electing to have surgery on a cyst in his hand.
• Will most likely start the season at Low-A Frederick, as he hasn't had enough ABs as a pro to justify moving him all the way up to Bowie (AA).
• Was recently ranked as the Orioles #12 overall prospect by John Sickels @ Minor League Ball.

CCHC Quote of the Day (Lenny Dykstra)

"That's my fucking ashtray money, bro. I don't even know if I flew on their plane."

- former MLB outfielder Lenny Dykstra, when asked if he bounced a $7,000 check to

Halcyon Jets, for a flight from Las Vegas to Van Nuys, Calif. (2008)

Orioles Retrospective: January 11, 1991 (The Glenn Davis Trade)

20 years ago today, the Orioles pulled the string on what would turn out to be one of the worst trades in franchise history… this from the January 11^th, 1991 edition of the Washington Post:

“The Baltimore Orioles ended five weeks of often frustrating trade talks by acquiring slugger Glenn Davis from the Houston Astros yesterday for a trio of 24-year-olds: pitchers Pete Harnisch and Curt Schilling and outfielder Steve Finley...Orioles officials reacted gleefully to the deal, saying that they entered the offseason seeking a pair of run-producing hitters and now - with the earlier signing of free agent Dwight Evans - they've fulfilled their need... the Orioles envision 35 to 40 home runs from their new addition."

"Manager Frank Robinson immediately proclaimed Davis his cleanup hitter. 'We felt like we had to add two quality offensive players to our ballclub,' he said. 'I feel like we've done that. . . . Glenn Davis is capable of doing big things for us.'"

Over parts of three injury plagued seasons with the Orioles, Davis batted .247 with 24 HR in just 764 plate appearances, before retiring in 1994. His OPS+ was just 96, and he accumulated 0.1 WAR, total, over those seasons.

Harnisch (17.5 WAR), Finley (40.5), and Schilling (69.7) each went on to have extremely productive careers; in terms of WAR, they were, quite literally, a thousand times more valuable than Davis.

Good trade for the Astros.

That wasn’t the prevailing opinion at the time, though. Thomas Boswell of the Post called it “the best trade for the Orioles since they got Frank Robinson”, which pretty much echoed the prevailing sentiment around the league at the time. Nobody had any idea that these three young players would go on to do what they did, definitely not the ultra-fortunate Astros, who were simply selling Davis off because they couldn’t sign him to a long term deal, and wanted to cut payroll to make it easier for the owner to sell the team.

Trading prospects is funny… sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, and sometimes a deal comes back to bite you on the ass… and people are still talking about it twenty years later.

MLB News, Notes, and Links

• The guys at TYU (The Yankee U) hypothesize about whether the Yanks might be able to pull off a "sign and trade" with Tampa for Rafael Soriano, and somehow avoid giving up a first-round draft pick next year (as compensation for signing a Type A free-agent). That's actually a cool concept; I never thought of a sign and trade in baseball terms. Turns out it's actually legal, and possible... but rare.
• The Reds signed free-agent shortstop Edgar Renteria, because it turns out that they're intent on f'ing up all the good chemistry in that young clubhouse, and finding someone capable of setting a bad example for everybody. Now that Orlando Cabrera is gone, they also needed someone else to steal PA's from Paul Janish, who was more productive and a heck of a lot cheaper than either guy last year. I HATE this move. It stinks of Dusty Baker and his young-player-hating.
• Then the Reds went and signed Fred Lewis, who's a 4th outfielder that I actually kind-of like, and more of a lead-off type (career .348 OBP) than anyone else on their roster (they need one). The only problem is that this is going to steal plate appearances from younger, higher-upside guys like Chris Heisey and Yonder Alonzo. Dusty strikes again.
• The White Sox officially signed LOOGY Will Ohman; good for him on cashing in on last year's success to earn himself a 2-year, $4 million deal. Not sure he's really worth that much money, but no way can I begrudge it... he was a fun guy and a great interview, who performed well while he was here in Baltimore. Good article on what this deal does for Chicago, here.
• Former Oriole Kris Benson (2006) formally announced his retirement this week... this is a guy who was drafted first overall in 1996, but couldn't stay healthy, EVER. He was at one point a hard thrower with huge potential, but injuries took all that away, and he ended up with a career record of 70-75, and a 4.42 ERA (just about league average, for his time in the majors). Still, he lasted until he was 36 years old:

"I’m done... I decided pretty much after this past season that I wasn’t going to pursue anything. I’ve been putting way too much into it and not getting enough out of it, as far as the rehab, working out, training, and then not getting the type of results I expect from myself... I just don’t want to fall into another situation like I had the last couple years, where I busted my tail getting back and then got hurt again shortly after I made the team."

• The Rangers are supposedly going after free-agent Jim Thome pretty hard... Really? WHERE THE HELL ARE YOU GOING TO PUT HIM? Your infield is already over-loaded, forcing Michael Young to DH. Is Thome he going to be your bullpen catcher? Stop over-compensating for losing Cliff Lee, already. We know, it wasn't your fault.
• This is insane to me, but definitely a must-read on radaronline.com, about a new series called "Cleat Chasers". Don't make me try to explain it:

"RadarOnline.com has learned exclusively that casting is now taking place for a show about Baseball Annies, slang for women who stop at nothing to hook up with major league players -- married or single."

• Jerry Crasnik at ESPN.com posted a hot-stove piece today about the city of Cleveland's low expectations from the Indians, who look like they might be pretty awful:

"Anyone who thought the Indians might spend their way out of their doldrums failed to get the memo. The team's only big league free-agent contract this offseason has gone to outfielder Austin Kearns for a grand total of $1.3 million. While the Detroit Tigers spent $50 million on Victor Martinez, the Chicago White Sox signed Adam Dunn and the Kansas City Royals hastened their long-term rebuild with a bold trade that sent Zack Greinke to Milwaukee, the Indians have had a more boring winter than manager Manny Acta's barber."

Orioles Prospect Profile: Dan Klein

A few things you didn't know about Dan Klein, the Orioles 3rd round selection in last year's amateur free-agent draft:

• Daniel Christopher Klein was born in Long Beach, California, on July 27, 1988.
• His parents are Chris and Teri Klein, and he has two younger siblings, Thomas and Katie.
• Listed at 6'3", 195 lbs; he bats and throws right-handed.
• Played both baseball and football at Servite High School in Anaheim, CA.
• As a football player, he was a starter from his sophmore season on; was the league MVP his first two years, totaled almost 5000 yards passing for his career, and broke several Serra league passing records.
• As a baseball player, he was also an all-league performer, going 12-6 with an ERA right around 2.00 his last two years, as a starter. Struck out 13.45 batters per nine innings his senior year.
• Finished high-school with a 3.4 GPA, and Orange County scholar-athlete honors.
• Supposely turned down several opportunities to play quarterback at other Pac-10 schools.
• Was drafted by the Orioles in the 24th round out of high school, but didn't sign, instead electing to attend UCLA.
• Excelled in a relief role his freshman year, posting a 1.82 ERA out of the bullpen. Missed the last two months of the season with shoulder issues, and then red-shirted as a sophmore due to shoulder surgery.
• Assumed the Bruins closer role as a junior (redshirt-sophmore) in 2010, and blossomed, recording a 6-1 record and 1.90 ERA in 39 games.
• Those 39 appearances (UCLA played only 52 games) tied the UCLA single-season record; that record had stood for 38 years (since 1972). His 10 saves were the 2nd highest total in UCLA history.
• The Bruins (48-14) made it to the College World Series in 2010, losing to South Carolina in the 11th inning of the championship game, where Klein gave up the game winning hit, and took his only loss of the season. He threw a season-high 3.1 innings in the game, and allowed only the one hit.
• For the season, Klein picked up Ping 2nd-team All American honors.
• He was selected in the 3rd round of the 2010 MLB draft (85th overall) by the Orioles, and signed with the team for a bonus of $499,000.
• Klein had more leverage than most draftees, given his redshirt-sophmore status. He could have gone back to school and possibly increased his draft position significantly, which negatively impacted the Orioles negotiating position. In an interview with ESPN Los Angeles's Blair Angulo in late July, he wasn't sure, but seemed to want to go pro:

"I think I could help myself out if I came back to school... Then again, I'd like to start my pro career now... I don't have a problem if things don't work out. I don't have a problem returning to UCLA and helping them get back to Omaha. I have a great opportunity with the Baltimore Orioles right now. If things don't work out with them -- which I hope they will -- I have no problem going back to school to try to win a national championship."

• ESPN's Keith Law ranked Klein #7 on his list of 2010 draftees who are likely to reach the big leagues quickly, due to a combinaton of talent and opportunity.
• Made a late-season pro debut with short-season Aberdeen (Low-A), and posted spectacular numbers (albeit a very small sample size), allowing no runs and only one hit in six innings (five games), while walking zero and striking out 10. 
• After the season, he was selected as the Orioles #5 overall prospect by both Baseball America and FanGraphs, and #3 overall by John Sickels at Minor League Ball.
• You can view the MLB.com video scouting report on Klein here, with the details below:

Fastball: Klein has a solid-average fastball that he runs up to 93 mph, sitting comfortably at 91 mph.
Fastball movement: He's got good sink and cutdown in the zone.
Slider: It's a hard, short slider with late bite and tilt, thrown 82-85 mph.
Curve: Has an average curve with a downward roller movement; throws it 77-78 mph.
Changeup: Has a very good feel for his change, which has a splitter-type action to it, around 83 mph.
Control: He throws plenty of strikes and generally hits his spots well.
Poise: Shows good composure on the mound and competes well.
Physical Description: Klein is tall with a good pitcher's body. He's got a strong and lean lower half and has room to add strength.
Medical Update: Klein red-shirted his true sophomore season in 2009 because of shoulder surgery, but he appears fully healthy now.
Strengths: The chance to have three, maybe even four, usable pitches with good command. Good pitcher's body, with excellent makeup. Very competitive on the mound. Has excelled as a closer and could be quick to the big leagues as a reliever, but also might have the repertoire to start.
Weaknesses: Injury history will concern some; he might be limited to a middle relief role when all is said and done.
Summary: After missing all of 2009 because of shoulder surgery, Klein wasn't really on radar screens. That changed in a hurry as he emerged as one of the better college closers in the country. He can throw four pitches for strikes, leading some to think he should get a chance to start at the next level. Even if that doesn't pan out, teams know they will have a competitive pitcher who can excel in a relief role and move quickly through a system. If teams feel he's fully healthy -- and he appears to be -- that's the type of arm that usually gets drafted fairly early.

UCLA coach John Savage, when asked about Klein early on in the 2010 season:

"It’s impressive that Klein is the best athlete on the team. He was a high school quarterback and had some very good scholarship offers to play football. He also was drafted out of high school. He had an OK freshman campaign and got hurt after that. He is just a guy that throws four pitches for strikes. But he is very competitive and just has a presence about him. He has a lot of confidence. He just seems to control the environment as good as a pitcher possibly can. He has a lot of characteristics as a legitimate closer. He holds runners, he is good off the mound and has an inner confidence that is hard to teach."

Video of Klein giving up the championship-winning hit to South Carolina OF Whitt Merrifield (who was drafted in the 9th round by the Royals), in the 2010 College World Series:

CCHC Quote of the Day (Blyleven)

"When Bert Blyleven first came up, you kept hearing about how he was born in Holland.. everybody was all excited. It was exotic. You almost expected him to stride out to the mound wearing wooden cleats."

- Phil Wood, "Wall-To-Wall Baseball", MASN (2010)

CCHC Quote of the Day (Steinbrenner)

"What the HELL did you trade Jay Buhner for?! He had 30 Home runs and over 100 RBIs last year. He's got a rocket for an arm. You don't know what the HELL you're doing!"

-Seinfeld's Frank Costanza, to Yankees owner George Steinbrenner. (1996)

Orioles Retrospective: Cal Ripken Jr - Pitching Prospect

It's interesting to think about, as Orioles history might've been a lot different if Cal Ripken Jr had actually been groomed and developed as a pitcher, instead of as a position player. It's not relaly as crazy as it seems... This from the June 8th, 1978 edition of the Baltimore Sun:

"Just one day after being chosen in Major League Baseball's free-agent draft, Aberdeen's Cal Ripken Jr displayed a few reasons why the Orioles made him their #2 draft selection."

"Ripken fanned 17 batters and gave up only two hits while pitching the Eagles to the Maryland Public Secondary Schools Athletic Association Class A baseball crown, in a 7-2 win over Thomas Stone yesterday at Price Georges Community College."

"Orioles scouting director Tom Giordano selected the Aberdeen senior in the second round as a pitcher-shortstop in Tuesday's draft, making him the highest area selection this year."

Imagine if the O's had decided that Ripken was best suited as a pitching prospect? The organization's 1981-present day history might have been completely different. Given the fragile and rather risky nature of pitching prospects, especially those drafted out of high-school, we could've seen a subsequent 1983 article that looked something like this:

"The Orioles lost 5-3 to Toronto yesterday, as rookie long-reliever Cal Ripken Jr yielded four runs in the 8th inning, wasting a home run by third baseman Doug Decinces, and a strong start by 2nd year starter Storm Davis... Ripken, whose electric fastball excited the Crowds at Memorial Stadium several times earlier in the year, was plagued with control problems; those same control issues have limited the potential of the once well-regarded 1978 2nd round draft pick, and prompted questions about whether he should once again be demoted to the minors... several excellent defensive plays by  shortstop Len Sakata weren't enough to overcome Ripken's three walks... The Orioles were a heavy favorite to win the American League East coming into the season, but age has finally taken it's toll on the roster, especially amongst the position players, and that optimism has slowly given way to bitter disappointment amongst the fan base."

It's probably a good thing for the Orioles, and all of baseball, for that matter, that Ripken stayed on the left-hand side of the infield where he belonged. That seems to have been his intention from the beginning, as he voiced later in the article:

"Ripken, who completed his high school career with a 14-4 overall mark and an 8-2 regular season record, says he will definitely play for the Orioles organization next year: 'It may be my only chance to play pro ball, so I don't want to miss out.' he said, 'I'd prefer to play shortstop in the majors, but I'll play anywhere.'"

Here is that article as it appeared in print, click to enlarge:

CCHC Quote of the Day (Steinbrenner)

"I must say, with all due respect, I find it very hard to see the logic behind some of the moves you have made with this fine organization. In the past 20 years, you have caused myself, and the city of New York, a good deal of distress, as we have watched you take our beloved Yankees and reduce them to a laughing stock."

- Seinfeld's George Costanza, to Yankees owner George Steinbrenner. (1994)

Orioles Retrospective: A Tale of Two Franchises, Baseball and Football

I think it's important to remember that while the Orioles have been bad recently, and the Ravens have been good, it hasn't always been so... success can be a very cicular thing, and over the last 30 years, the success and popularity of the city's baseball and football franchises has come full circle.

If you click on the article below (written by Bob Maisel, and included in the January 4th, 1981 edition of the Baltimore Sun), and take a minute to review,  it's easy to imagine the same thing being written today, but with the football and baseball franchises being flip-flopped:

Keep this in mind the next time you hear somebody saying "The Orioles are going to suck forever", or "The Raven's approach will always keep them competitive". The only thing you can really count on in sports is that nothing lasts forever.