Vlad's Real Impact On the Orioles Lineup? Meh..

A lot of people think that when you insert a "middle of the order" bat (which Vladimir Guerrero is consdered to be) into a lineup, it has a trickle-down effect that drastically changes the dynamic of the offense. In many scenarios, I agree with that.. but in Vlad's case, I don't - he's just not that kind of bat anymore.

Take a look at these two examples, both of which utilize per 162 game WAR averages for the last 3 seasons. Check out the total WAR value of the Orioles starting eight position players and DH, both with and without Guerrero:

What I see when I look at this is that Guerrero (WAR of 2.8 per 162 games; that's his offensive contribution, only), is an above-average player, but no longer a real difference maker. If he could produce numbers at his 2010 rates (a VERY big if, at age 36, moving into the AL East), the Orioles would be better with him in the lineup than without, but the difference between him and the other outfielders on the roster really isn't all that significant - maybe a few wins, tops. Here's why:

• Most people are impressed by his .300 AVG, 29 HR, and 115 RBI from 2010 (me too), but don't we as intelligent fans know enough by now to avoid being unduly-influenced by performances fueled heavily by high batting averages and a large number of plate appearances? 
• Guerrero's OPS+ last year in his "rebound season" was 122 , which is solid, but hardly elite. For example, Markakis's OPS+ was equivalent at 119, in what almost everyone considered a pretty terrible year for Nick.
• Vlad amassed 643 plate appearances last year, and was part of an excellent Texas lineup; he got a lot of run-producing opportunities, and definitely ran up his counting stats.
• But on a per-plate-apperance basis, his output wasn't that impressive. He walked only 30 times, and his ISO was only .196, which again, is solid, but isn't going to bowl anyone over - on the league leaderboards that would sandwich him squarely between Alex Gonzalez, the veteran SS (.197), and Chris Young, the Diamondbacks CF (.195). Not exactly awe-inspiring company. 
• And despite batting in the middle of that Texas lineup, he only scored 83 times, which says to me that he can't really run anymore at all, which is a major liability.
• To put his 2010 season into a context that O's fans can relate to, Luke Scott's OPS+ last year was 142, which was good, and significantly better than Guererro's, but nobody is talking about The Caveman as a superstar.
• But "superstar" is exactly the kind of rep that Vlad carries; at this point it seems like that's more about reputation and counting stats than anything else.
• I heard a few folks on the radio today (ESPN 1300) talk about how Orioles management was "nickel-and-diming" Guerrero, as they were "only" offering around $5 million for one year, and how that figure should be closer to $8 million, so as to not "insult" the guy.
• I guess my answer to that would be... if another team was knocking him over with a larger offer, would he even be talking to a team like the Orioles, if they were  truly low-balling him? They have to at least be in the ballpark; the market is just lower than he obviously would have liked.