MLB 2011 Player Previews

MLB released a cool tool on their site sometime in the las few days... a tool that provides Fantasy previews/rankings for every player in major league baseball; the interface can sort by name, team, position, league, etc... good stuff.

2011 Fantasy Baseball Preview & Player Rankings

Orioles Spring Schedule

The following is a link to the Orioles full spring training schedule, as posted on MLB.com. I've previously posted the radio/TV broadcast schedules, but there are lots of games that don't air on either WBAL or MASN... the team essentially plays a spring game every day from Feb 28th to March 29th. The only day off is Monday, March 21st.

Orioles 2011 Spring Schedule

Orioles News, Notes, and Links

• According to an article in today's Baltimore Sun, Buck Showalter has asked 1B Brandon Snyder to work on re-developing his catching skills, to increase his versatility. Snyder was drafted as a catcher in 2005, but a shoulder injury moved him out from behind the plate in 2006. Snyder seemed enthusiastic about the idea, as it would definitely add to his value; his offensive game doesn't project well as a corner-infielder.
• Showalter also listed Josh Bell as one of the guys competing for a ML roster spot as a utility player; I think that's probably just motivational talk from Buck. Bell needs to play every day at this point in his career, and probably belongs at Norfolk (AAA). And they already have Cesar Izturis, Brendan Harris, Robert Andino, and Jake Fox in the mix for utility roles...
• Vlad Guerrero took his physical today (Wednesday); this is the last hurdle involved in making his signing official. Supposedly, the team will formally announce the signing on Friday.
• Project Prospect, an organization that I respect because of their conservative approach and emphasis on project floor rather than ceiling, ranked two Orioles amongst the top 100 prospects in all of baseball for 2011. Zach Britton was ranked 18th, and Manny Machado was #27.
• Good story on B Free Daily about 2 Orioles fans who ran amuck after being locked in Camden Yards after a game, a few years back. The article includes pictures of them hanging on the foul pole, and sliding on a wet tarp over the infield.
• Stacey Long over at Camden Chat compiled community projections for 3B Mark Reynolds in 2011, which can be found here.

Orioles News, Notes, and Links

• The Orioles had their first workout of the spring today, pitchers and catchers. That alone makes it a pretty excellent afternoon, if you ask me.
• Steve Melewski at MASN writes about how RHP Chorye Spoone (25), who was one of the Orioles top pitching prospects before he had shoulder surgery in 2008, is finally getting healthy. He talked about how Spoone is "back on the Orioles radar", but that might be premature... he had a decent ERA  of 4.02 last year at Bowie (AA), but walked (79) almost as many battes as he struck out  (88), and posted a WHIP of 1.59 in 132 innings.
• Orioles LHP Zach Britton (23) was ranked 21st on the USA Today Daily Pitch's Countdown of the 100 Names You Need to Know, which "...looks at young players primed to make an impact during the upcoming big-league season.". According to the article:

"The Baltimore system is becoming a pitching pipeline that might soon challenge division rival Tampa Bay's. Britton, 23, is next in line and could be the best of the bunch. He's more about ground balls than strikeouts but has averaged less than a hit allowed per inning since he reached the full-season leagues in 2008 and has given up a homer only once per 20 innings since turning pro. Britton, 23, will start the season at Class AAA unless one of the other young Orioles starters falters this spring. But Britton's efficiency will get him to the majors sooner rather than later."

• Rory Paap at The Hardball Times writes about how the O's are still chasing a .500 season. It isn't a pretty read, if you're an Orioles fan... but it's hard to completely disagree with his assessment:

"...The Rays have not only competed but excelled by being highly intelligent. The Jays seem like they might be on their way. The Bombers and Sawx aren’t going anywhere. The Orioles? I don’t know. Maybe this is just baseball's example of the survival of the fittest. I just can’t help but think the O’s are a minnow in a pool of great whites, and if Bud Selig and Major League Baseball couldn’t do something, anything, to help them..."

• Earlier this week, the O's avoided arbitration with both Jeremy Guthrie and Luke Scott. Guthrie will earn $5.75MM, Scott will walk away with $6.4MM; each was a 1-year deal.
• Dan Connolly at the Baltimore Sun penned a piece on Saturday where he talks about stuff like the impact of Vlad Guerrero, the health of Brian Roberts, Buck Showalter's MOJO, how the rotation might shake out, and a half dozen other things... nicely done.
• Orioles President Andy MacPhail addressed a group of Baltimore School of Law students last week, and had a lot to say... including that he believes that the Ranger's 2001 acquisition of Alex Rodriguez was one of the worst free-agents signings ever (for some pretty good reasons, none related to Arod's quality of play, which was excellent), and that the Orioles would not be in the market for Albert Pujols services, should he become a free agent this off-season.

Orioles Spring Broadcast Schedule(s)

These from Roch Kubatko at MASN, always a great source...

MASN Television Schedule

• March 7 - New York Yankees, 7 pm)
• March 14 - Pittsburgh Pirates, 1 pm)
• March 15 - Houston Astros, 1 pm)
• March 19 - Philadelphia Phillies, 1 pm)
• March 27 - Boston Red Sox, 1 pm)

WBAL Radio (AM 1090)

• Feb. 28 - Pittsburgh Pirates, 1:05 p.m. (Pirates SS)
• March 1 - Tampa Bay Rays, 1:05 p.m.
• March 5 - Boston Red Sox, 1:05 p.m.
• March 6 - Minnesota Twins, 1:05 p.m.
• March 7 - New York Yankees, 7:05 p.m. (Orioles SS)
• March 10 - Pittsburgh Pirates, 7:05 p.m.
• March 12 - Houston Astros, 1:05 p.m.
• March 13 - Detroit Tigers, 1:05 p.m. (Tigers SS)
• March 16 - New York Yankees, 7:05 p.m.
• March 18 - Minnesota Twins, 7:05 p.m.
• March 19 - Philadelphia Phillies, 1:05 p.m.
• March 20 - Tampa Bay Rays, 1:05 p.m.
• March 24 - Pittsburgh Pirates, 7:05 p.m.
• March 26 - Tampa Bay Rays, 1:05 p.m.
• March 27 - Boston Red Sox, 1:05 p.m. (O's SS)
• March 29 - Toronto Blue Jays, 1:05 p.m.

Opinions (of Mark Reynolds) are like A'Holes

I haven't met two people who are actually on the same page about what Mark Reynolds will do this year. You ask ten folks, you get ten different answers, which usually are some derivative of these:

• The Pissed off Fantasy Guy - "Reynolds? He sucks. I hate him. I drafted him on my fantasy team last year and he screwed me all the way to Sunday. Totally f'd me. Dude strikes out 1,000 times a year, can't even hit .200, can't play defense. He's a bum, and the O's were stupid for giving up David Hernandez to get him. Hernandez will probably win the f'ing Cy Young now that the Orioles traded him. And when he does, I'm gonna have him on my team. But no f'ing Mark Reynolds. Dude Sucks. Did I tell you he screwed me last year?"
• The Unreasonably Optimistic View - "Reynolds? Gonna hit 50. Mark my words, he's gonna hit 50 bombs in Camden Yards. He'll be better than ARod. They'll put him at #5 or #5, get him tons of fastballs to swing at, and BOOM! 50+ bombs... gonna be so sweet! You gonna eat that hot dog? No, SWEET! Pass 'er over! Who were we talking about? Reynolds? Hell yah, gonna hit 50 bombs..."
• Libertarian - "Just leave the guy alone, and he'll do what he do and that will be fine. Get the f&*& out of my face. Get off my property. Shut the hell up and leave. I am going to shove the f(*&$(* gun up your rear end and blow your rectum out if you ask me one more question about Mark Reynolds. You know why? Because I'm a f*(*&$ citizen, and I can, that's why! Same way Mark Reynolds can strike out 223 times in one year and there ain't s$&% that anyone can say to the man. Back the f#$@ off."
• Keynesian Theory - "They gotta totally re-work his swing, man. Seriously. The guy's got power, but they gotta work with him, get him to cut down on his K's, and stop trying to hit every pitch for a homer. You know he owns the leage record for K's? Can't let him do that, man. Maybe they give him some guidelines, for like, what he can and can't do with two strikes. Yeah! And they fine his ass if he ignores them. That'll work. Don't let the guy think for himself, that's for sure."
• The Middle-Order-Bat-Fixes-Everything Concept - "You know what they need to do, man? They need to hit Vladdy after Reynolds, cause Vlad don't need no pitches to hit, man. Nah, he swings at whatever, and still htis .320. With Vladdy hitting behind him, Reynolds is gonna see tons of strikes, dude. He's gonna gets lots balls to hit. And if he gets lots of balls to hit, he's gonna hit tons of homers. And if you hit Luke after Vladdy, he'll still have a guy on base in front of him all the time, you know? So lots of RBIs for him. I don't know why managers don't see this stuff, bro..."
• The Down-Cycle Manic Depressive - "Yeah, Reynolds has power, but he's never gonna hit here, man...nobody does. We get all these guys that come in here trying to re-establish themselves, and they never hit. You know he hit below .200 last year? yeah, can't see that changin'. He just doesn't put enough balls in play to hit for an average. They bring these guys in, every year, and all the other teams spend really money on free-agents, and all we end up with are different versions of Garrett Atkins. Reynolds is worse than Atkins, though, man, because he cant play defense either. They'll prob'ly end up moving him to first, cause he's gonna hurt them bad over there at the hot corner. That will be the problem for all these young pitchers - we just don't have enough defense. But the offense sucks too. I'll watch them, but it's gonna suck, man. Same old Orioles..."

I could go on like this forever, but I won't. Because here's what I think - Reynolds might suck and he might not, but I'm betting he hits the ever-living crap out of at least a couple of balls every week. He'll be incredibly interesting and frustrating to watch, all at the same time - I hear that from anyone who's ever seen him play regularly. He's not a great defender so he will definitely suck there some of the time, but that's fine, because it's not like he's playing shortstop. I just want him in the middle of the order.

One way or another, he'll be fun. I can't ask for anything else. But yes, it would be nice if he hit 50 bombs. I'd settle for 30.

Orioles Prospect Profile: Matt Bywater

A few notes on Orioles minor-league LHP, Matthew Bywater, whom they drafted out of Pepperdine in the 7th round of the 2010 draft:

• Born on June 15, 1989 in Thousand Oaks, California. He played baseball at Thousond Oaks High School, before moving on to pitch at Division I powerhouse Pepperdine University.
• He's 6'2", 190 lbs, left-handed, and a work-horse, though not a particularly hard thrower.
• According to the Baseball Draft Report, his fastball sits around 88-89 with plus movement, he has a really good slow low-70s slider, and a high-70s sinking change-up.
• According to O's scout Gil Kubski:

"He's a 6'3", 6'4" left-hander, real lean. I think he's going to get bigger and stronger when it's all done. He's not a flame thrower, about 87 and will touch 90. But he's got an outstanding change-up. If there's a better change-up in the country this year as an amateur, I'd be surprised. It's anywhere from 79 to 81 and just disappears at home plate. It's an amazing swing and miss pitch for him. He also throws a slider that is his third pitch and needs some improvement and he's well aware of it. I think it's going to be an average pitch for him...He's got a real good understanding of how to pitch with his fastball. A lot of guys when they have a great change or breaking ball can fall in love with it. He knows that the more he uses his fastball, the more effective his secondary stuff is. And, he commands his fastball extremely well to both sides of the plate. He really has an understanding of how to succeed with his tools out there."

• Bywater was a starter all 3 years he pitched at Pepperdine, finishing with 19 career wins.
• In his junior (final) year, he was 6-5 with a 2.40 ERA, and averaged better than 7 innings per start, including 5 complete games and 4 shutouts.
• Those 4 shutouts were a Pepperdine record; the previous record holder was former MLB RHP Mike Scott, who was drafted out of Pepperdine in the 2nd round of the 1976 draft by the Mets, and finished with 124 career wins, 3 All-Star Appearances, and a Cy Young Award in 1986.
• Bywater was a unanimous first-team All-West Coast Conference selection in 2010.
• Bywater's velocity was the only real question mark on him, going into the draft. That caused him to drop several rounds, according to scouts.
• Thet team wasn't sure they'd be able to sign Bywater to a contract, and were afraid he'd go back to college; he ended up agreeing to a deal at the 11th hour before the signing deadline.
• Matthew's father's name is Curtis, his mother is Susan, and he has one brother, Brian.
• He didn't make his pro debut in 2010; odds are that he opens up this year at Low-A Delmarva, or possibly short-season Aberdeen.

Lower-Level Orioles Pitching "Prospects"

I use the term "prospects" pretty loosely, here - this is really just a loose collection of largely unheralded guys n the low minors (with the obvious exceptions of Bob Bundy and Ryan Berry), who posted some stat or another that caught my eye. Some of these dudes are already 23 or 24 years old, so the chances that they'll even get to the big leagues are slim... but still, it was interesting to pull together the list, and see what kind of info I could dig up on each pitcher:

• Jorge Rivera, LHP (20) - at age 19, posted a 1.21 ERA in 52 innings in the Dominican Summer League (rookie-level) in 2010, averaging 9.7 K/9. That's less impressive than it sounds, as it's very much a pitching-dominated league. But still, it's hard to ignore a 1.21 ERA, at any level. Not sure what their plans are for him in 2011, but definitely one to keep an eye on.
• Jarret Martin, LHP (21) - a JUCO draftee in 2009 (Bakerfield, CA), Martin has a 92-93 mph fastball, hammer curve, and control issues. In his pro debut at Bluefield (R) he walked almost 7 batters per 9 innings, but also showed the ability to dominate: he K'd 10.3 per 9, gave up only 3 HR, and allowed only 6.5 hits per 9. One red flag? His 4.07 ERA was deceptively low, as he allowed 11 unearned runs in his 13 starts. He at one point in high school had committed to Cal State Fullerton (a powerhouse program) before going the JUCO route; the story I heard was college wasn't his first choice, but he wasn't drafted very high, so he went JUCO to try and boost his draft stock. It worked, kind of. He went in the 18th round in 2009, after being drafted in the 19th in 2008 (by the Orioles, who couldn't sign him).
• James Brandhorst, RHP (23) - reliever out of Lamar University in Texas. Was drafted in the 20th round in 2009, and pitched well at Delmarva (Low-A) in 2010, though he's a bit old for that league, and he wasn't quite as good as he had been at Aberdeen the year before. His career minor league line is solid: 2.74 ERA and 9.8 K/9 in 67 games, spanning 88.2 innings. He doesn't project to be dominant at higher levels, but has been extremely solid so far in the minors.
• Nathan Moreau, LHP (24) - Moreau is a big, tall lefty (6'4, 225 lbs) that can be dominant (a K per inning last year, and a no-hitter in his first start after being promoted to Frederick), but has trouble commanding the zone. He performed very well at Delmarva (Low-A) last year, but was inconsistent after that huge start when me moved up to High-A. He's too old for that level already, so it's hard to consider him a real prospect, but he's definitely got some upside. Lefties sometimes figure it out later, right?
• Steven Mazur, RHP (23) - Mazur is prototypical organizational filler; he barely breaks 85 mph with his fastball, and went undrafted out of Notre Dame after a mediocre collegiate career. But his pro debut stats last year were fantastic: no runs allowed and more than a K per inning at Bluefield, then a 1.64 ERA and 11.9 K/9 in 15 games at Aberdeen. It's a little hard to figure, but probably attributable to small sample size.. or maybe he just got healthy, or figured something out. We'll know more in 2011.
• Jose Mota, RHP (21) - as an 19 year-old, Mota pitched well for the Orioles Dominican team in 2009, then came stateside last year and was equally impressive for the Orioles Gulf Coast League rookie team. Again, it's a small sample size (20 games in relief, and 31 innings), but his peripherals were excellent: 9.3 K/9, 1.5 BB/9, a 6.4 K/BB ratio, only 0.3 HR allowed per 9, etc...  one drawback is that he's not a big guy (5'11"), and baseball types tend to overlook small right-handers, but that won't matter if he keeps producing.
• Jake Cowan, RHP (22) - another JUCO guy that the Orioles used a 10th round pick on in 2009; like some of the other guys on this list, he can generate strikeouts, but also walks a lot of batters. A starter, he pitched pretty well for Low-A Delmarva in 7 starts last season, but we haven't see him enough yet at the pro level to really get an idea of what he can do.
• Jhondaniel Medina, RHP (18) - another short righty out of the Dominican, Medina's numbers are quite as impressive as Mota's, but he pitched very well last year as a starter in the DSL. He struck out 49 guys in 50 innings, gave up only 3 HRs, and posted a 2.32 ERA. He's very young (17 last year), so it wouldn't surprise me if he spent another season there before joining the O's GCL team.
• Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP (17) - again, here's another very young Orioles DSL prospect, but Eduardo has the added advantage of being left-handed, and a little taller than either Medina or Mota, at 6'2". But like the others, he posted an excellent ERA (2.33), K/9 (8.5), and HR rate (zero in 65 innings). He struggles a bit with his control (3.8 BB/9). Not sure what the Orioles plans for for him in 2011, but at only 18 years old, we might not see him in the GCL this year.
• Jacob Pettit, LHP (24) - was a 42nd round draft pick of the Orioles last year, out of Western Oregon State College, and was actually born the day after the Mets beat the Red Sox in the 7th game of the 1986 world series (Oct 28th, 1986). Now 24, he was a little older than the average guy making his pro debut. But he pitched well by any standard, posting a 2.61 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 2010, mostly at Aberdeen. There doesn't seem to a scouting report on him anywhere in the universe, but I can tell you that he was had a 1.80 ERA this past season in college, and was named the 2010 Great Northwest Athletic Conference Pitcher of the Year.
• Miguel Chalas, RHP (18) - one more time... a very young, not-so-big dominican righty who pitched well for the Orioles rookie DSL team in 2010. The thing that catches your eye about Chalas is the ERA of 1.72, and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 4-to-1. Like the others, he padded his stats playing in a very pitching-friendly league.
• Robert Bundy, RHP (21) - Bundy is actually one of the better known pitchers on this list, having appeared among the Orioles top prospects in reports produced by Minor League Ball and FanGraphs this off-season. The Orioles selected him in the 8th round out of an OK high-school in 2008 because of his power fastball/curveball combo, and he was projected to go higher, but dropped because of signability and  injury concerns (torn ACL). Baseball talent runs in the family, as his brother Dylan is projected to be a 1st round pick in the 2011 draft.
• Jesse Beal, RHP (20) - I have no idea what to think of Beal, really. Only 19 last year, he was very young to be pitching in the South Atlantic League (Delmarva, Low-A), as the average pitcher was almost 22. And from one point of view, his stats were very good, as he compiled a 3.86 ERA in 114 innings, averaged better than 6 innings per start, and didn't walk anyone (1.8 BB/9). But at the same time, he didn't strike anyone out, either (just 5.0 per 9 innings), gave up A LOT of hits, and while his walk rate was still excellent, it was almost twice what he posted the season before (less than 1 walk per 9). I'm stumped.
• Ryan Berry, RHP (22) - I love Ryan Berry, and while I'm not sure he'll succeed in the big-leagues as a starter because of his lack of velocity and kind-of-sort-of lingering arm issues, he definitely has the makeup to get there. I posted on him earlier this winter, here. To me, he's kind of the anti-Matt Hobgood. No, that's not fair, and no, I don't care.
• Nicholas Haughian, LHP (24) - a 9th round draft pick in 2008 out of the University of Washington, the team used him mostly out of the bullpen in 2010, and he didn't pitch as well as he had in 2009. He was considered a steal when the Orioles got him that low - the knock on him has always been control, but he has several plus pitches. He was supposedly a big prep prospect back in 2005, before we went to UW.

Orioles Player Profile: Vlad the Impaler

A few things you might not have known about new Orioles DH Vladimir Guerrero, who was acquired via free agency on February 4th, 2011:

• He was born in Nizao in the Dominican Republic, on February 9, 1975. He'll be 36 when pitchers and catchers report for 2011 spring training.
• He's listed at 6' 3", and 235 lbs. He throws and bats right-handed.
•  He doesn't wear batting gloves, and claims he developed his strength bringing in uncooperative bulls every day on his father's farm.
• He's one of nine kids (four full siblings, four half siblings). One of his older brothers is ex-major leaguer Wilton Guerrero, who played with the Dodgers, Expos, Reds, and Royals from 1996-2004. He's listed as only 3 months older than Vladimir, but there's some speculation that Wilton lied about his age before signing.
• The Montreal Expos signed him out of the Dominican Republic as an amateur free agent in 1993. He was originally in the Dodgers Dominican camp, but left, and ultimately ended up with Montreal (for a $3,500 signing bonus).
• When he signed with the team, he lied about his age, claiming to be born in 1976. He didn't come forward about with his real age until 2009, when he revealed that he was actually a year older, and was born in 1975.
• Once he became a professional. he absolutely destroyed minor league pitching, posting a .345/.406/.585 line over 2 and a half seasons in the minors.
• He rose through the system quickly, and made his major league debut on September 19th, 1996, against the Atlanta Braves. He started in RF and went 1 for 5 against Atlanta LHP Steve Avery. Future HOF'er Pedro Martinez started that game for the Expos.
• In 1997 he finished 6th in NL Rookie of the Year voting, posting a .302/.350/.483 line in 354 plate appearances.
• In 1998 he improved to .324/.371/.589 (with 38 homers), and the Expos signed him to a 5-year, $28 million contract.
• From 1999 - 2003, Guerrero kicked the living hell out of National League pitching, posting a .326/.400/.602 line, and averaging 37 homers and 22 steals a year.
• He joined the 30/30 club (Homers & Steals) in 2001, then again in 2002. He almost went 40/40 the 2nd year, but finished with 39 home runs.
• Despite all that, he never finished higher than 6th in the NL MVP voting, as Montreal wasn't very good, and finished in 4th or 5th place almost every year.
• He signed a big free-agent deal with Anaheim before the 2004 season, for 5 years and $70 million.At the time, he was quoted as saying: "I want to win when the whole world is watching, ... I want to win a World Series in an Angels uniform."
• The investment paid off for the Angels, as Vlad won the MVP award in 2004, and was part of an Anaheim team that won five out of six AL West titles, between 2004 and 2009. The only exception was 2006, when the A's won it, and the Angels finished 2nd. Over that period, he hit .315/.379/.534.
• After an off-year in 2009 (the only major league season that he hasn't hit at least .300), he signed a 1 year deal with Texas $5.5 million plus incentives), and hit over .300 with 29 HR. He wanted a 2 year deal, but Texas didn't want to go that route with a 36 year-old, and let him walk.
• The Orioles signed him to a 1-year $8 million deal earlier this week. He'll DH and hit somewhere right in the middle of the Orioles' lineup.
• Despite the fact that he's an extreme free-swinger, he's never once struck out more than 100 times in a season over his 13+ year career.
• During the 2009 post-season, Cal Ripken Jr. commented during a TBS post-game report that Guerrero was "..the best bad-ball hitter I've ever seen.."
• He's a 9-time All Star, and 8-time Silver Slugger award winner, and has earned somewhere around $120 million in salary during his career. His career average is .320, and he has 436 lifetime home runs.

According to Baseball Reference, he's most comparable in terms of similarity score to the following players (in order):

1. Larry Walker 
2. Jim Rice 
3. Duke Snider 
4. Juan Gonzalez 
5. Chipper Jones 
6. Joe DiMaggio
7. Moises Alou 
8. Orlando Cepeda 
9. Andres Galarraga 
10. Willie Stargell

Thoughts on the AL East, and the Cyclical Nature of MLB

When I was a kid, there was a time (1988 through 1990) when the American League East just wasn't very good. The division champ averaged a little more than 88 victories a year, while over in the AL West, the winner was averaging a much-more-robust 102 wins (+16%) over that same period. My father, who hated the DH with a passion and carried that over into a matching disgust of American League teams in general, used to call it the "American League Least". He was pretty biased; as a Mets fan since 1962, he had some serious Yankee envy, and had no love for the Sox, either.

The team alignment was a little different then, as baseball didn't move to the current six division configuration until 1994. But the Red Sox, Yankees, Orioles, and Blue Jays were all still together in the AL East, so most of today's core was there. The general economic conditions were the same, and unlike today, there was no cap of any kind, soft or hard, and revenue sharing didn't come into play until the collective bargaining negotiations of 1996, in the form of a "competitive balance tax".

I remember the time pretty vividly, as I was in my teens, and that's pretty much when young men are at their baseball-watching peak... It wasn't like either team was doing obviously dumb things, or had some sort of huge fundamental philosophical flaw that doomed them to a few years of mediocrity; they just weren't that good. All the normal reasons played a part: they got older, made some bad signings, they had key injuries, and didn't have quite enough minor league talent to supplement a diminished roster. Nothing magic there... just depressingly mediocre teams.

So, given that I remember the AL East being down for a while, and remember it very well... my opinion might be a little different than most. I think that what I've been hearing over the last few years, about the AL being an "undefeatable juggernaut", is a bit of an over-reaction; one that's leveraged and promoted to great extent by ESPN, the MLB Network, etc.. because the Red Sox/Yankee rivalry is incredible for ratings.

The over-used cop-out of: "It doesn't matter what the team does, because they're not going to be able to compete with the Red Sox or Yankees, anways..." is a ricketty old crutch, honestly. Those two teams have a financial advantage, granted. They have great fan support which drives a tremendous amout of revenue: their fans show up to the games in droves, buy jerseys and hats and hamburgers and $40 parking spots, and pay extra every month for the NESN and YES networks. But they do that because at the end of the day, they believe that those teams are going to win. Their teams have consistently demonstrated that they're going to put the best possible product on the field, year-in and year-out. Neither one has stopped to "rebuild" in almost 20 years. So their fans believe they're going to come out on top, or at least be exciting in the attempt, and they're willing to pay for a winner.

I read the other day that the Orioles payroll is right around $94 million right now, give or take. Thats definitely less than the Red Sox at $161 million, or the Yankees at around $196 million, but not by as much as you might think.... And O's managment has committed to that salary level after 13 consecutive losing seasons. If the team manages to get it's head above water over the next few years, bringing in more fans, boosting attendance and TV ratings, etc... how much further can they go?

To build a winner, you don't just have to build a base of major league talent, or a foundation of minor league prospects, or have the right management team in place.. you also have to build trust. The fan base has to trust that you're going to protect their interests, trust that you're going to put the best possible product on the field, and not embarrass them when they wear their hats and jerseys or talk to their co-workers. They have to trust that you're not going to make them feel like second-class citizens in sports, like a lot of them already do in life.

That's why the Vladimir Guerrero, Derrek Lee, and Kevin Gregg signings are not only important to the team's future, they're tremendously important, regardless of whether the contracts were for one year, or five... it doesn't even really matter if each player produces on the field, as the end of the day. Each signing built hope, which is the first step in building trust. With each, the team saw an opportunity to make the team better, regardless of whether or not they could have gotten by with a lower-priced alternative. And in each situation, they got the job done... suprising the hell out of most of us. Instead of thinking "Same old Orioles", we're thinking "Maybe somethings changing... maybe."

Now it's time for them to take it to the next level. The Red Sox and Yankees aren't unbeatable, the Rays proved that the next couple of years. And there's a heck of a lot more support here for the Orioles than there is in St Pete for the Rays.