Guess-timating the Orioles Selection at #4

This MLB draft is always hard to figure. Teams make picks for all sorts of reasons, and every franchise has a different agenda (which they seem to change at the drop of a hat). Highly rated guys drop quickly due to sign-ability concerns; others can go entirely unnoticed, then light it up for half a year and end up an early round pick. High school selections often decide to go to college if they don't get picked quite high enough, or get picked by the "wrong" team, or they don't get the kind of bonus they're looking for.. etc.. Draft-eligible college juniors sometimes use their leverage and go back to school for their senior seasons, others play like crap in the Cape Cod league and scare scouts off. Plus, there's 50 frigging rounds to the thing, and you have to think about the JUCO guys, who are hard to scout because the quality of the competition is all over the place... Yuck. What a mess.

And unlike the NFL draft, you usually don't see these guys for at least a few years after they're selected. There's no instant gratification factor, unfortunately. All this together makes the draft a little hard to embrace.

But let's toss all that out, have a little fun, and pretend we actually know something - let's try to figure out who the Orioles will pick at #4 this year (behind the Pirates, Mariners, and Diamondbacks). I'm not in any way an expert on amateur players, but like a lot of other people, I follow it pretty closely through the TV and online. Here are some of the players that I see appearing often in the top 5 or 10 on mock-draftboards for 2011:

• Anthony Rendon, 3B, Rice - before a nasty ankle injury (dislocated/broken) this summer, he was probably the consensus #1 overall pick... now it depends on his recovery. Tons of power, he gets compared to guys like Evan Longoria a lot... probably won't be around when the Orioles pick unless he takes a serious step backwards. Slash line of .394/.539/.801 last year.. that's a 1340 OPS. Yowser. Good defensively, too. Only drawback is his size: he's listed at 5'11" and only 170-180 lbs.
• Archie Bradley, RHP, Broken Arrow Senior HS (OK) - the issue with Bradley is that he's already committed to play QB for Oklahoma in 2012. His potential as a RHP is unquestioned - mid 90's heat off a 3/4 delivery; his fastball bores in on right-handed hitters, his 80-82 mph curve is sharp, and he commands it well. Doesn't have off-speed stuff to go with it yet, but is supposedly developing a straight change. Might take a lot to sign him, with OK ready to put him under center.
• Gerrit Cole, RHP, UCLA - went to the national championship game with the Bruin's last year; a starter who supposedly has a mid-90's fastball, double-nasty curveball, and great peripherals. Struck out 11.2 per 9 in 2010, gave up only 4 home runs in 123 innings. Could go #1 if Rendon isn't that guy.
• Matt Purke, LHP, TCU - was drafted 14th overall last year but didn't sign; the Rangers didn't want to match his (significant) contract demands. He's a skinny guy (6'4", 180-190 lbs) with funny glasses, when you see him he looks left-handed, if you know what I mean... Low-mid 90's fastball and nasty breaking stuff. Struck out close to 11 batters per nine last year.
• George Springer, OF, UConn - Decent size (6'3, 200 lbs), very toolsy, very project-able, and also very productive. Keith Law from ESPN called him the top prospect in the Cape League; he's got great wheels, and profiles as a 20-20 guy. Hit .337 with 18 dingers last year, and stole 33 bases in 35 attempts.
• Sonny Gray, RHP, Vanderbilt - is small-ish and hasn't been overly-hyped, but pitched very well for the Commodores last year, and really asserted himself for team USA over the summer. Questions about his size (5'11) and lack of a 3rd pitch make some scouts wonder if he'll end up in the bullpen.
• Bubba Starling, RHP/OF Edgarton HS (KS) - there's a great article about Starling on omaha.com; read it, and you'll end up wanting this guy to marry your daughter. There are a few drawbacks: he's committed to Nebraska as a QB, his agent is Scott Boras, and he wants a $10 million signing bonus.
• Dylan Bundy, RHP, Owassa HS (OK) - runs 6'1", 200 lbs, so he's not overly big, but scouts look at his huge legs and trunk, and project him as a workhorse power pitcher. Can hit 95, sits at 93. His brother Bobby is already in the Orioles system.
• Taylor Jungmann, RHP, Texas - sort of wierd mechanics; some people think he's been a bit over-hyped because he's the best pitcher in an elite program... but he's won 19 games and lost only 6 over his first two collegiate seasons with the Longhorns, with an ERA of 2.02. Another hard thrower who has excellent size (6'6"), he can spot the fastball and has a quality slider that could develop into a truly nasty weapon.
• Henry Owens, LHP, Edison HS (CA) - there's some talk around that he might be the top high school arm in the nation. Very project-able at 6'7", 185 lbs, and growing (he supposedly wears size 17 shoes). Definitely a high-ceiling guy. Good fastball that gained a lot of juice last year, sits in the low-90's. A great senior year puts him solidly at the top of the draft.

CCHC's Take - Honestly, there's a TON of talent at the top this year, and the Orioles can't afford to bust on a #1 pick (HOBGOOD!). I'd avoid all the high-school pitchers and George Springer from UConn, because of the bust factor. They way it looks now (which will change) Cole, Purke, and Rendon will probably all be gone by #4; but either Sonny Gray or Taylor Jungmann will probably be sitting there waiting to be taken. They should go ahead and do so.