The Orioles and the Winter Meetings

MLB's annual winter meetings are coming up next week, December 6th-9th, in Lake Buena Vista, FL. There are some rumblings out there that the Orioles will be pretty active... at the risk of stating the obvious, here are probably some of their priorities (duh!):

• Starting Shortstop - this has to be #1 in my mind, as they have ZERO organizational depth at short, with Robert Andino (.592 lifetime OPS) being the only player under contract that's had significant major league experience. Behind him, the cupboard is pretty bare. Of the players they're looking at, the ones I've heard the most are Jason Bartlett (TBR), JJ Hardy (MIN), and Ryan Theriot (LAD). None are free-agents; all would have to be acquired by trade, or potentially picked up after being non-tendered by their current clubs. David Hernandez is supposedly the chip that most teams are interested in, but the club would rather deal Felix Pie; not sure there's a lot of demand there, though. I guess they could always re-sign Izturis (ackkk...).
• Starting Third Baseman - Like most fans, I don't think it would be the worst move to re-sign Ty Wigginton or bite the bullet and start Josh Bell, then spend the money on another need, especially since there are so few quality third basemen out there in free agency... Adrian Beltre is the prize of the class (and he's stated publicly in past seasons that he's not coming here, so please don't get your hopes up), but it gets thin behind him. At that point, you mostly have infield-tweener guys like Nick Punto or Miguel Cairo, or possible reclamation projects like Hank Blalock, Erik Chavez, or Bobby Crosby. The best non-Beltre free-agent option might be Felipe Lopez, who struggled last season (.233/.311/.345), but was productive as recently as 2009 (.310, 38 doubles, .810 OPS). Lopez doesn't turn 31 until May, so he may be willing to sign a a 1 year incentive-laden deal to boost his value.
• Starting First Baseman - This is the deepest part of the free-agent class, and I think every Oriole fan is hoping they can attract one of the top bats (Konerko, Dunn), or maybe just a 2nd tier bat (Cantu, LaRoche, Pena, Lee, Berkman, etc..) or possibly a 3rd tier guy (Nick Johnson, Russell Branyan, Troy Glaus, Lyle Overbay, etc.. HAVE I NAMED ENOUGH NAMES YET?) but I'm not extremely hopeful on this one... But in the worst-case scenario, given a failure to acquire via free agency, they have guys like Brandon Snyder, Rhyne Hughes, and Joel Guzman in the minors.
• Veteran Starting Pitcher - In theory, I like the idea of acquiring an "innings-eater" type starting pitcher via free-agency; but didn't we go through this with Kevin Millwood last year? This is tricky, as even guys like Jon Garland, who I think that the Dodgers got for relatively cheap last week, are earning $13MM over two years. But there are definitely guys out there, like Jeremy Bonderman, Aaron Harang, Vincente Padilla, Brandon Webb, Jeff Francis, Kevin Correia, etc... the trick is picking the right one. This is where a solid scouting investment really makes a big difference, because it's hard to tell from the numbers. You guess, wrong, and you end up like the A's last season, paying $10MM for Ben Sheets and his 4.53 ERA in 20 starts.
• Utility Infielder - Theriot or Lopez would be excellent additions here, as both can play multiple positions well, and get on base, and start in case of injury. Again, re-signing Ty Wigginton would also make a lot of sense. But there are a bunch of utility options out there (there are a million Miguel Cairo/David Eckstein/Adam Kennedy clones on the market, available for a dime a dozen) so this obviously shouldn't be a key focus. But last year proved that they need some depth.

Britton, Boras, and Baltimore

According to this post on The Baltimore Sports Report, 22 year-old LHP Zach Britton recently decided to change representation, leaving Hendricks Sports to go with Scott Boras and The Boras Corporation. Britton was the O's 2010 Minor League Pitcher of the Year, posting a 10-7 record and 2.70 ERA between Bowie (AA) and Norfolk (AAA):

 Zach Britton’s Future in the Boras Corp.

 Boras currently represents 73 major league and 38 minor league ballplayers, according to Tim Dierkes' list at MLB Trade Rumors. His list of elite clients is impressive, and includes Carlos Beltran, Adrian Beltre, Johnny Damon, Prince Fielder, Carlos Gonzalez, Matt Holliday, Magglio Ordonez, Manny Ramirez, Stephen Strasburg, and Mark Teixeira, just to name a few... He also represents the following Orioles:

1. Zach Britton
2. Matt Weiters
3. Jake Arrieta
4. Mike Gonzalez
5. Manny Machado
6. Josh Bell
7. Brandon Erbe
8. Kevin Millwood

I don't see any short-term impact to either the Orioles or Britton with this move, though it may in some ways hinder the team's ability to re-sign him long term, if that's the way they want to go. That's only because Boras generally encourages his clients to maximize their levergage by taking their contract to term and playing into free-agency, then letting an open market drive their price... we'll see what happens.

Bill Madden: Baseball's Biggest Turkeys

This afternoon, Bill Madden from the NY Daily News penned an article with his picks for the the 10 biggest "turkeys" (worst performances) from the 2010 baseball season... here are two that are relevant to O's fans:

• Cesar Izturis, SS, Orioles - Madden refers to Izturis as "..unquestionably the worst offensive player in baseball", citing his .545 OPS, which was the worst in either league. I can't even make a case to defend Cesar - but I'd amend what Madden said with the qualifier: "worst starting offensive player in baseball." There are guys out there more even deficient with the stick, but they aren't regulars. Cesar shouldn't be either, but compensates with the glove, to some extent.
• Jack Zduriencik, GM, Seattle Mariners - Zduriencik is relevant in this context because without the Mariners and their league-worst 3.17 runs scored/game, the Orioles would have the worst offense in the American League. The Mariners were really bad; almost have a run worse per game than anyone else in baseball, even including the NL teams with no DH.

1983 ABC Network: World Series Introduction Video

Some pretty cool interviews, highlights of both the Phillies and O's, Al Michaels and Howard Cosell... something fun to watch just two days after Thanksgiving.

Felix Pie Meltdown (Winter Ball)

Wow, this is truly impressive. It's like once he got going, he couldn't stop. I wonder... if he had actually gotten to the ump on the first attempt, would he have gone completely Sprewell on him? This could have been NASTY... and for some reason, I'm not terribly surprised it happened.

Bartlett, Reynolds, Hardy, and Nishioka

Good posts from Roch Kubatko @ MASN, on his "School of Roch" blog. He provides some insight into who the Orioles are looking at for 3rd base and shortstop in 2011. That includes Jason Barlett, Mark Reynolds, JJ Hardy (all of whom could potentially become available via trade), and Tsuyoshi Nishioka, the Japanese SS whom the Twins won the rights to negotiate with earlier this week:

Reynolds vs. Bartlett
JJ Hardy Remains SS Option for Orioles

Who is Joe Mahoney?

Before last season, I had never thought of Joe Mahoney as anything more than a line-item on the Delmarva Shorebirds stat sheet. I couldn't have told you how old he was, where he went to college, or even what position he played.. he was pretty much a non-factor to me.

 And why not? In 2008 he hit just .222 in Low-A, and had just two steals. He improved a lot in '09, but still hit just .278 at the same level, with more than 3 times as many strikeouts as walks. Not much to write home about, really.

 But last year changed that, quite a bit. A 2007 6th round draft pick out of the University of Richmond, Mahoney lit it up in High-A Frederick (.299/.358/.465), and after getting promoted to Bowie, was even better (.319/.378/.545). He finished the season hitting .307 with 18 HR and 30 doubles across two levels, and established himself as one of the best 1B/OF prospects in the Orioles organization.

 Listed at 6'7" and over 250 lbs, Mahoney is literally a big prospect. But despite some suprising speed for a guy his size (29 steals in 30 attempts in 2009), at that size he's probably best suited to first base, long-term. He's shown power, but not big-time power, so far in his minor league career - and he'll be 24 years old in February. Those drawbacks make him a 2nd tier prospect, but he's still one of the best in the O's organization.

 A few interesting facts about Joe Mahoney:

• Born on February 1, 1987, in Albany, New York.
• Bats and throws left-handed.
• He went undrafted out of Central Catholic high school in Troy, NY, and instead attended the University of Richmond.
• In three years with Richmond, Mahoney played in 171 games, batted .310, hit 31 HR, and amassed 152 RBI. He finished in the school's career top 10 in both HR and RBI.
• He hit 17 HR during his junior year (2007), and was selected in the 6th round by the O's. He was the highest draft pick from Richmond since Tim Stauffer was selected in the 1st round by the Padres in 2003.
• He was signed by Dean Albany (the Orioles scount who also signed Billy Rowell), for a bonus of $110,000.
• Debuted with 67 games in trhe New York Penn league in 2007 (Aberdeen), and hit pretty well: .269 with 9 HR and 44 RBI in 65 games.
• Struggled mightily in 2008, with only 2 HR and a slash line of .222/.275/.349 in 95 games at Low-A Delmarva (a league which does tend to kill hitter stats). But he rebounded in 2009 (.278/.326/.414 in 115 games, with HR), which earned him a promotion to High-A Frederick.
• As mentioned above, 2010 was a break-out year of a sort for Mahoney, as he finally posted double-digit HR totals (18), slugged .498, and made it to AA Bowie.
• His performance in earned him the 2010 Brooks Robinson Award, which is awarded  annually to the best position player in the Orioles’ minor league system.

More than likely, Mahoney will start the season with at either Bowie (AA) or Norfolk (AAA)... probably Bowie, as there's a little bit of a 2nd-tier prospect log-jam in Norfolk. Whether or not he's promoted quickly depends on these things:

• Whether or not the big-league team acquires a free-agent 1st or 3rd baseman, which essentially pushes everyone else within the ogranization at those positions down a rung, in terms of pecking order.
• Organizational plans for Brandon Snyder (24), Rhyne Hughes (27), Joel Guzman (26), and Josh Bell (24). Snyder is strictly a 1B, but both Hughes and Guzman played a significant amount of OF last season. Bell is a 3B by trade, but after watching him last year, I'm not sure he'll end up there.

Finally, I found a 20 second youtube video that shows Mahoney's stance and swing...

Free Agency Update (1B)

Not a huge surprise here - both Victor Martinez (1B/C) and Aubrey Huff (1B) signed over the last few days; Martinez with the Detroit Tigers, and Huff with the San Francisco Giants.

So the remaining market at the first-base position has thinned a little, but is still pretty robust, highlighted by Dunn, Konerko, Berkman, and a host of others... The remaining unsigned group looks like the following:

Showalter Interested in Willie Randolph

Mark Miller @ Yahoo is reporting that Buck Showalter has an interest in bringing former Mets manager (and Yankees coach) Willie Randolph to Baltimore as an infield coach, who would also serve as either the bench or 3rd base coach.

Willie Randolph Joining Orioles?

Randolph filled the bench coach role for Showalter for a time when they were each with the New York Yankees, in the 1990's. Not sure what to make of this one, as I never really liked Free-Willy all that much... but it rings true.

Randolph managed the Mets from 2004-2008, and went 302-253 overall. His 2006 team won the NL east, but lost to the eventual series-winning St Louis Cardinals in the NLCS. He lost credibility in NY when the Mets folded down the stretch in 2007; they ended up finishing 2nd to the Phillies by a game, after having been in 1st place since mid-May. That team had a 7 game lead on Philly as late as September 12th... it was a pretty epic collapse.

Orioles Interested in Tsuyoshi Nishioka

The following is an article on SeattlePI, about how several teams, including the Orioles, are interested in Japanese shortstop Tsuyoshi Nishioka, who hit .346 with 206 hits last season in the Nippon Professional Baseball league last year:

Posting Window for Nishioka Closes Tuesday

A few things about Nishioka and the Orioles:

• Obviously for the O's, acquiring a shortstop who could hit, much less win a league batting championship, would be a major coup.
• Baltimore pretty much has to look outside the organization, as they don't have a solid internal candidate.
• Nishioka, a switch hitter who's only 26 years old, would in theory be a very nice addition. 
• He owns a career .293 batting average, and last season led the Nippon league in games, runs, hits, total bases, and average.
• According to the article, his 206 hits were the most in the league since Ichiro in 1994.
• He can play both second and short, and pretty well, supposedly. In 2005 he split time at both, and actually won Japan's version of the "All-Pro" award at short, and the gold glove at second base. 
• In total, he's a 5 time All-Star with 3 gold gloves.
• The "Posting Fee" (which gives a team exclusive rights to negotiate with the player, but does NOT guarantee that he'll sign) hasn't been announced, but Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports noted that it could be as much as $15-20 million, with a weak free-agent class at shortstop.

A slightly different viewpoint, and a few more things to think about:

• I've seen several sources who refer to him as "injury prone", despite the fact (see above) that he led the league in games played last year.
• He's played extensively for Bobby Valentine (pro league and in the WBC), so his idea of the "typical" American is more than likely slanted.
• A few years back, he went exclusively by his first name for awhile. I'm not saying that people organically referred to him that way (eg, Kobe, Shaq, Tiger, etc...) but that he TOLD THEM that's what they were going to call him; similiar to Ichiro, except he was doing so without quite the same pedigree. Strangely (not) it didn't go over exactly like he hoped, and he switched back the next year.

All I can say is... big ego, history of injury, big posting fee.... stinks a little bit of Kaz Matsui (for whom the Mets once moved Jose Reyes from SS to 2B). Yucky.

Being Brian Matusz

There were pretty big expectations for LHP Brian Matusz coming into last season, especially after he tore through the minor leagues (11-2, 1.91 ERA) and made a relatively successful MLB debut in 2009 (5-2, 4.63 in 8 starts) in '09. And while some were disappointed with his production over the 1st half, in reality he's right where he needs to be on the growth curve for a #1-ish (probably more of a #2) major league starter.

A few interesting things about Brian:

• 2011 Opening Day Age: 24
• Height: 6'4", Weight: 190 lbs
• Throws Left, Bats Left
• Born in Grand Junction, CO (February 11th, 1987)
• Went to high school at St. Mary's in Phoenix, AZ.
• Was originally selected by the Angels in the 4th Round (133rd overall) of the 2005 draft, but didn't end up signing.
• Instead, he attended college at the University of San Diego. Stats below...

• Was a first-team All American and West Coast Conference pitcher of the year in '08.
• Drafted by Orioles in 1st Round (4th Overall), 2008. He was picked directly in front of 2010 NL Rookie-of-the-Year Buster Posey. (#5, to San Francisco).
• Inked a 4-year deal worth $3.5MM with the O's on Aug 15, 2008.
• He made his Major League Debut on 8/4/2009, against Detriot (he went 5 innings, gave up a run and got the win).
• Through 2010, his career record is 15-14, 4.37 in 40 major league starts.
• 1st Half 2010: 3-9, 4.77 -> 2nd Half: 7-3, 3.63
• Final 2010 Record: 10-12, 4.30
• At this point, he's #2 or #3 starter (behind Guthrie). Figures heavily in their plans; they're counting on him to develop into some form of consistent, top-of-the-rotation kind of guy.
• Is slated to make $1.4MM next season (not bad for a 3rd year guy).
• Side note - he has as a career 6.55 ERA in day games, vs 3.76 at night.

Matusz was ridiculously good after Buck Showalter replaced Juan Samuel as the Orioles' manager; from August 1st through the end of the year, he was 7-1 (.875) with a 2.18 ERA in 62 innings over 11 starts.

He might have saved his best for last; in his final start on October 2nd against the Tigers, he went 6 1/3 innings, gave up two hits and two walks, and struck out 9. He was dominant in that game (he only came out because of a high pitch count, and a worth-nothing game), and gave fans a nice glimpse of top-end potential to close out the season.

The following link is for Matusz's 2010 "Top Performance" matrix on Retrosheet.org, which categorizes his best games by category, like innings, strikeouts, HRs allowed, etc...

Brian Matusz Top Performances

Daily News (Lupica) on Showalter Hiring

Unlike in football, the impact of a manager in baseball is a very nebulous, difficult-to-quantify type of thing. In football, you "lead men", and "set the tone", "provide a presence", and you're the "CEO of the organization", etc... In baseball, you're forced to wear a uniform, and if you're unlucky, the cameras catch you picking your nose or catching a few ZZZ's.

Mike Lupica at the NY Daily News is one of the best writers (not just sportswriters, either) around, and he put together a pretty good piece today about how hiring a manager, like a lot of things in sports, is a total crap-shoot. His opinion is that Buck Showalter should have been the manager of the year in the AL (34-23 to end the year), but regardless, the Orioles and Andy MacPhail "lucked out" with the hiring, because these things so often go the other way... and can change in a heartbeat. If you read the article, there's no disrespect intended; he's just making a point on the nature of the business.

Orioles Luck Out With Hiring

O's Draft Pick Breakdown

The O's made 49 selections in the June free-agent draft; 24 of those played in the minor leagues last season (including their top 10 picks). The following is a summary of all 49 draft picks, by position:

As you can see, they went heavy on catchers, pitchers, and shortstops, and thinner on outfielders, 2B, and corner infielders.

The New Oakland Athletics

OK, for years people (myself included) have been referring to teams that focus on acquiring players with high on-base and slugging percentages as "Moneyball" teams. Chief among these were the Red Sox, Athletics, Yankees, etc.. But we all had it wrong.

Because the Moneyball concept was about finding the aspects of the market that were under-valued, and exploiting them, NOT about fixating on certain components, like HRs or walks. I'm not saying anything revolutionary, I know, but hear me out... this is going someplace.

I was really surprised as, while crunching 2010 team stats, I noticed that the Oakland Athletics were not only 3rd amongst all 30 MLB teams in steals (156), they were also 2nd in stolen base percentage (80%). WTF? If you think about it, for years the A's rolled out rosters filled with big-time sluggers, OBP guys, and dudes who hit 20 HRs but struck out 170 times... and seemed to completely abhor the concept of the stolen base. Now they're not only running, but they're focusing on guys who run well, up-and-down the lineup; which signals a serious, long-term commitment to the steal as an offensive weapon.

What changed? And when the hell did this happen?

Well, the reality is that the market changed. Back in 2003 when Moneyball was published, MLB teams under-valued players with OBP and SLG skillsets, so the A's jumped on those particular attributes. But as the league caught up, they were forced to adapt. If you look at the table below, you can see that they've gone from 31 totals steals in 2005, and increased that by more than 500% in 2010.

Because the market has been severely undervalued for things like speed and defense, the A's have latched onto those, and despite a tiny budget (28th in MLB at $51,654,900 last season), they've managed to stay relatively competitive, winning 81 games and finishing in 2nd place in the AL West last season.

A different way to show the change in philospophy (or better yet, the way the Moneyball philosophy has changed their approach) is to compare their lineup in 2002 with the current team, as follows:

A few things you should take note of:

• While the 2010 A's obviously run a lot more, those players that run a lot are allowed to do so because they steal at a high percentage. This was a basic Moneyball tenet - don't give up outs.
• The 2002 A's had several players (Miguel Tejada and Erik Chavez) who in their best years, together would've hit more HR than the entire 2010 lineup (72). They came close in 2002, with 68.
• Rajai Davis had more steals (50) than the entire 2002 lineup.
• You can still see examples of undervalued OBP/SLG skillsets in the current lineup; Jack Cust and Daric Barton are perfect examples. They will take advantage of any market inefficiency that they can find.
• And while it's not pictured here, the ideas on pitching are pretty much the same: draft/acquire a lot of young arms, because they're not cheap to buy on the open market. They tried to catch lightning in a bottle last year with Ben Sheets, but that was a $10MM mistake (4-9, 4.53). 
• The main difference in pitching philosophy, I think, is that college pitchers are in high demand now, because they're much lower risk than the high-school equivalent. So the A's have drafted high-school pitching prospects like Trevor Cahill (2nd) & Vin Mazzaro (3rd) higher than they might've previously, and acquired guys like Gio Gonzalez and Brett Anderson after they've proved out to some degree in the minor leagues.

Putting the 2010 Orioles in Historical Context

• The O's finished in last place in their division for the 3rd straight season, the first time in team history that's happened. No previous Orioles team has even done it twice. (But the '54-'59 teams were pretty bad.)
• The team scored 615 runs, which is the lowest total for a Baltimore offense since the strike-shortened season in 1994 (589 runs scored in 113 games).
• That placed them next-to-last in the AL, behind the Seattle Mariners (3.17/game). The Mariners actually scored 100 less runs than anyone else in the league (513).
• Aside from their terrible 54-107 season in 1988, their 3.78 runs/game scoring average was the Orioles' lowest in 38 years, since they scored 519 runs and averaged 3.37 in 1972. That was the last season in the AL before the designated hitter rule was adopted. My point here is that the offense was pretty horrific, by any standard.
• They won 66 games, the first time in the last 7 years that they actually won more games than they did the year before (2004).
• They lost 96 games, making 2010 the 5th consecutive year they lost at least 90.
• They've now lost 90+ games in 8 of the last 10 years.
• Before the 2001 season, the team had lost 90+ games only 5 times in it's entire history in Baltimore, and 2 of those were the first two years after they came over from St. Louis.
• 2010 was the first time in Orioles history that they had 3 people each manage more than 50 games: Dave Trembley (54), Juan Samuel (51) and Buck Showalter (57).
• While the offense was god-awful, the pitching was significantly better, allowing 91 less runs than the year before (785 in '10, vs 876 in '09).
• Those 785 runs made for a 4.85 runs allowed/game average, which was still 2nd worst in the AL behind the Kansas City Royals (5.22 runs/game, 845 total).
• The Orioles are NOT a Moneyball team: they finished dead-last in the AL in walks, with 424 (just 2.6 per game). Nick Markakis's 73 walks made up more than 17% of that total.
• The Orioles are NOT a small-ball team: they finished 10th in the league in steals, with just 76 (less than half a steal per game). Corey Patterson's 21 steals made up 28% of the team's total.
• Further evidence against the small-ball idea: the team was 12th in sac bunts, with 31. What's interesting is that the team that lead the league with 53 (the Texas Rangers) is historically thought of as a lineup of sluggers.

Orioles Sign Minor Leaguers

The O's made a few deals early this week, signing former Cubs farmhand Mitch Atkins, and re-signing LHP Will Startup (26), RHP Raul Rivero (24), catcher Adam Donachie (27) and INF Carlos Rojas (27).

None of these guys are high-impact players, obviously, but Atkins had a nice year last year with AAA Iowa, going 8-3 with a 3.63 ERA. He might be in-line for some decline, though, since his strikeout-to-walk isn't great (1.8-1), and he gives up too many hits; his 2009 season in AAA was god-awful. The other guys are mostly organizational filler.

Orioles Reportedly Offer Coaching Job to John Russell

Per Jeff Zriebec in the Baltimore Sun, the Orioles made an offer of one of their two open coaching positions, to former Pittsburgh Pirates manager John Russell. According to the article:

• The deal isn't yet finalized, but likely.
• Russell was a major league catcher (1984-1993). 
• He was the Pirates manager, from 2008 through last year. His record was 186-299.
• He was a former 1st round pick by the Phillies back in 1982, out of the University of Oklahoma.
• He caught Nolan Ryan's 6th no-hitter, back in 1990.
• He would most likely be Showalter's bench coach, but it's possible he would be asked to coach third base, depending on the last coaching hire.
• One of his primary responsibilities would be to work with Matt Wieters.

Rick Kranitz Hired by Brewers

Former O's pitching coach Rick Kranitz (2008-2010) was hired by the Brewers today, for the same position. He's part of new manager Ron Roenicke's staff, and takes over for Rick Peterson.

Kranitz pitched for five seasons in the Brewers' farm system after being selected by Milwaukee in the fourth round of the 1979 Draft.

MLB.com Free Agent Tracker

A link to MLB's free agent tracker, which is pretty useful this time of year:

MLB: Hot Stove Tracker

Rookie of the Year Awards

The Rookie of the Year awards for both the American and National Leagues were announced on Monday (November 15), and neither one was a huge surprise: Giants catcher Buster Posey won it in the NL, and Rangers' closer Neftali Perez won it in the American League.

Baseball Reference: ROY Results

A few interesting odds and ends:

• The O's Brian Matusz ended up tied for 5th in the AL voting; he finished behing Tampa's Wade Davis (4th), but was probably the better pitcher, overall. In the 2nd half, he went 7-3 with a 3.63 ERA, struck out almost 8 batters per 9 innings, and held opponnents to a .228 batting average.
• Brennan Boesch from the Tigers tied with Matusz for 5th place (along with John Jaso of Tampa) with one of the wierdest stat-lines you'll ever see; he hit .342 in the 1st half, and less than HALF that (.163) in the 2nd half. He ended up at .256.
• ATL's Jason Heyward was everyone's favorite to win the NL award at the beginning of the year, but the hype kind of faded as the season went along. His numbers didn't though - he finished at .277/.393/.456, in 2nd place. In my opinion, he is far and away the most talented player in this rookie class, and is in line for an amazing career. He won't turn 22 until August, and produced at a .302/.419/.457 clip (.876 OPS) in the 2nd half.

Baltimore Sun: Why have a bench coach?

Insight from the Orioles Insider team at the Baltimore Sun, as to why teams usually have a bench coach.

Why have a bench coach?

Some things that the article doesn't talk about, mostly because they don't pertain in this situation with the Showalter and the Orioles:

• In the case of a young/rookie manager, management will often make the bench coach assignment themselves. They'll pair a young guy with a veteran type that they trust, to give them an ear on the bench and in the clubhouse.
• The bench coach, because he usually has rapport with the players and the manager, is a natural fit to take over in the case of a managerial change, in the "interim" role.

The following link is to an interview with Cardinals bench coach Joe Pettini, posted by Brian Walton at The Cardinals Nation. It's pretty specific to what Pettini's role is under Tony LaRussa with the Cardinals, but very interesting:

The Role of the Bench Coach

Dan Uggla on Trade Block

I heard a lot of people say the same thing last year: Dan Uggla would be a nice addition to the Orioles' roster, if he was willing to play third base. He's currently under contract with the Marlins, who are actively looking to move him, since long-term contract negotiations have stalled. Here's an article from Ken Rosenthal @ FoxSports:

Marlins look to trade Uggla

Uggla IS an upgrade (but not a huge one) at third over Ty Wigginton, but he's played his entire career in the National League, and a lot of players have a hard time making the transition to the American League East. Here is his career line, in comparison with Wiggy:

23 Points of On-Base-Percentage, and 42 Points of slugging.. I'm not sure that would be enough to justify the price tag - at least one high-end prospect, probably more. I'd probably make the effort to re-sign Wiggy.

Braves Hire Trembley

This news is a couple of days old, but they made it "official" today - the Braves hired Dave Trembley. He'll be their "minor league field coordinator". Here's the article from the AP:

Atlanta Braves hire former managers Trembley, Elia to baseball operations staff

I had no earthly idea what the hell a field coordinator does, except I was pretty sure it wasn't about the actual physical baseball field... so I did some research. (I'm not sure it helped.) Here's what I came up with...

Job Description: Field Coordinator

• Field coordinators have varying responsibilities, and work in a number of different disciplines. (Not very helpful...)
• The most important duty of a field coordinator is to ensure that programs and events run smoothly and efficiently. (Better!)
• The typical field coordinator is given the task of communicating with other employees, members of the community, and other businesses. (Dave does like to communicate. Remember the lineups posted days in advance?)
• Traveling is often a requirement, and coordinators are often aware of their schedules well in advance, as well as what percentage of time will be spent traveling. (Road-trips are a bitch, but at least they're well planned.)
• Though education in a certain discipline is usually required, it is not always necessary. (That's good, but I think I remember reading somewhere that Dave has an MA in education.)
• Experience can sometimes be substituted for educational degrees and certifications. (If I'm wrong about the MA, then this is good news for Dave! 21 years of minor league management definitely qualifies as significant experience.)

Yeah... not so helpful. If anyone has a better definition for "Minor League Field Coordinator", please let me know.

Brandon Erbe's Throw-Away Season

Right-hander Brandon Erbe is a Baltimore local; originally a 3rd round draft pick by the O's out of McDonough High School in 2005. The scouting types have always said that he had "electric" stuff (a term you hear thrown around way too often), but the knock on him was that he was frail, and had been consistently inconsistent throughout his 5+ years in the minor leagues.

I knew that he didn't have a great year for the Tides down in Norfolk (AAA) last season, but I did a double take when looking up his final stat line for '10 (I must have suppressed the memory to save myself the statistical trauma): a 5.73 ERA in 14 games (all starts), 70.2 innings pitched, 86 hits, 22 walks, a 1.53 WHIP, and just 50K. His final record? 0-10. Ouch.

Did I mention he threw just once after mid-June, and had season-ending surgery on August 13th to repair a torn labrum? Double-ouch.

Both Erbe and Orioles management expect him to make a full recovery in 2011, but it's the 2nd time he's had this kind of injury to the same shoulder, and it might take some time for him to rebuild his arm strength. He'll enter a 4-month rehab/throwing program in January, which will probably keep him out until May. He may not be fill strength until late in the year, if at all in 2011.

Triple Ouch.

All this after a solid season in 2009, mostly at Bowie (AA), where he went 5-4 with a 2.70 ERA in 18 starts. I had to do some digging to put everything in perspective. Is he talented (and dedicated) enough to slog through all this crap?

Here are the positives:

• Erbe is still very young (22), and had pitched well at every level in the minor leagues prior to last season. He has at least 2-3 more years before he ripens past prospect status.
• He's shown flashes of brilliance, sometimes for as long as half a season or more. He misses bats, which is an extremely valuable skill at every level.
• Yes, he's been frail, but has made a well-publicized series of mechanical adjustments that both he and the team think will help him avoid similar injuries in the future. 
• When he had the operation on his shoulder in August, doctors were pleasantly surprised that the damage wasn't nearly as bad as they'd expected.

And the negatives:

• The problem is, shoulder injuries are a real bitch for pitchers. 
• When they become repetitive, it can end a power pitcher's career in a hurry; at the very least, they can force a guy to fundamentally change the way he pitches.
• Very few players survive that kind of transition, when forced to make it.
• And, let's face it, Erbe already made some major modifications to his delivery prior to last year, in an attempt to stave off further injury. He still ended up having surgery.

Here's my take: he's gotten past this sort of thing in the past and been effective; that leads me to believe he can probably do it again. But every additional injury reduces the likelihood that he'll ever reach his true potential, and he's already pitched almost 6 full years in the minors. 2010 was a wash-out year, and 2011 will most likely be a throw-away, as well.

So let's be patient. But at the same time, don't feel bad if the doubts start creeping in. I'm sure Brandon's got them in his head, too.

Jon Paul Morosi on Victor Martinez

Good article on Vmart and his situation, from Jon Paul Morosi @ FoxSports:

Martinez should act fast in free agency

Free Agent 3rd Basemen & Scott Boras

There was an interesting post circulating around Twitter this morning, referencing a Fan Nation post in which Scott Boras claimed that there was an "unprecendented" amount of interest in free agent 3B Adrian Beltre this off-season. Per Boras:

"I would have to say in my years of doing this, I've never had so much interest in one player... We expected a good number certainly, but there are teams wanting to move players to make room for him."

When I read this, I really had no idea whether this is just typical agent hoo-doo, in which they attempt to inflate demand by creating an artificial market for their client... that's pretty typical. And Boras is the most-evil and soul-less of them all, so that's obviously an aspect of this, but I was wondering if there might not be some truth to it? Yes, Beltre's OPS just one year ago (2008) was .693, but injuries and Safeco field in Seattle had a lot to do with that.

So I took a look at the market; in this case, other free agent third basemen:

As you can see... there isn't much out there, at least at this point. Other options are Miguel Tejada and Juan Uribe, who aren't listed as 3Bs (each can play SS); both can hit, but have marginal full-season value.

If a team doesn't get Beltre, then they're either going to have to trade for a 3B, promote from within, or go with an absolute stopgap, like Mora, Punto, or Cairo... Felipe Lopez does have some value, but probably not at a corner infield spot, and it's a pretty big drop from Beltre to him.

Soooo... this isn't all posturing on Boras's part. Beltre did hit .321 with 28 HR last year, and carried the Sox for stretches. I don't know that I'd want to make him my center-piece, but he's re-established himself as a top-tier 3B.

What;s that mean for the Orioles? Well, the Red Sox are going to re-prioritize re-signing Beltre, but he's a Boras client and will definitely test the market. The Orioles record over the last dozen years is a deterrent to almost any major free-agent acquisition, though, so it's doubtful they'd land him - but they may try. If the rumors are true and there's huge demand, the asking price will be massive.

If they don't sign Beltre, then they have a few internal candidates for third base:

Bell obviously has the most upside, being 24, and having a decent rack record of minor league success. They'd probably want him to win the job outright. Moore and Fox might make the team anyway, since each is versatile, and can swing the stick. Fox has more power than Moore, but Moore had a nice season at Norfolk last year, and can play all of the infield positions.

Not sure what will happen here - there might even be a candidate we haven't thought of yet, or they could pull off a trade. But the best thing for the O's is if Bell can win the job, and show that he belongs at this level.

2010 Gold Glove Winners

The 2010 Rawlings Gold Glove Award winners were announced yesterday (November 10th). I think that the voters did a very good job this year, with the obvious exception of Jeter - but the gap between his defensive reputation and actual production have been a heated topic for years, and I'm not going to re-hash that debate here. 

Fat Baltimore Note - I think that awarding pitchers GG's is actually a little silly, since they flee the mound like cockroaches exposed to sunlight every time there's a pop-up to the infield...but my opinion counts for very little, and that's as it should be. 

Here are the lists, with the number of gold gloves that each player has won in parenthesis:

American League

P - Mark Buehrle, CHW (2)

C - Joe Mauer, MIN (3)

1B - Mark Teixeira, NYY (4)

2B - Robinson Cano, NYY (1)

3B - Evan Longoria, TBR (2)

SS - Derek Jeter, NYY (5)

OF - Ichiro Suzuki, SEA (10)

OF - Franklyn Gutierrez, SEA (1)

OF - Carl Crawford, TBR (1)

 Buerhle deserves to win every year, in my opinion, as does Ichiro and Gutierrez. If you haven't seen Franklyn Gutierrez go after a ball in the gap, you're missing something - he looks like an Antelope with a glove on. Amazing range. Carl Crawford has always been an excellent OF, but a relatively weak arm has kept him in LF, and has probably cost him the award in years past. Robinson Canoe only made 3 (3!) errors all year, and has good range - that was also a nice choice.

National League
P - Bronson Arroyo, CIN (1)
C - Yadier Molina, STL (3)
1B - Albert Pujols, STL (2)
2B - Brandon Phillips, CIN (2)
3B - Scott Rolen, CIN (8)
SS - Troy Tulowitzki, COL (1)
OF - Michael Bourn, HOU (2)
OF - Carlos Gonzalez, COL (1)
OF - Shane Victorino, PHI (3)

I have no idea whether Bronson can field, but he plays the guitar and chicks dig him, so he's cool with me. Yadier is the skinniest of the Molina brothers, but it's a good thing he's a catcher, because he's just as slow as the others (think old wrinkly turtle, in the hot sun)... but he's got a great defensive rep; catchers are hard to judge unless you see them every day and talk to the pitchers, so I'll leave that one to the voters. One other thing I should mention - Scott Rolen is practically a SS playing 3B, and despite injuries, age, etc... is also one of those guys that should win every year. Great hands, arm, instincts, range, etc... you name it. One of my favorite players.

Melewski's Take on Available 1st Basemen (MASN)

Nice peek (from Steve Melewski at MASN) at some of the 1st basemen available in free agency this year; obviously the Orioles are in the market for corner infielders (or are thought to be, as MacPhail keeps his own counsel on this sort of thing, rightfully), and the 1B market is a lot richer than the 3rd base crop. Melewski focuses on these 5 players as the "best available":

• Adam Dunn
• Paul Konerko
• Carlos Pena
• Derrek Lee
• Lance Berkman

I like Adam Dunn a lot (probably the most of this group), and Konerko too. Dunn's main deficiencies are his defense and batting average, which I think are more than mitigated by his power and on-base ability. Plus, he'll only be 31 this year. He and Konerko are definitely at the head of this 1B free-agent class.

Paul Konerko's only real drawbacks are that he's now 34 years old, and that he has shown a tendency to have hit-or-miss seasons; he can be the .312/.393/.584 guy he was in his career-year last season (extremely valuable), or he can be the .250/.348/.467 hitter that he was in 2007 and 2008 (mediocre at best, and not worth the $11-12MM it will probably take to sign him).

I wouldn't touch Carlos Pena with a 10-foot pole, unless they could get him for $4-5MM (he had $10.1MM last year). His OPS has decreased every year for the last 4 seasons, from a high of 1.037 in 2007, all the way down to .732 last year. Do you have any idea how hard it is to hit 28 HRs and walk 87 times, and only post a .732? Something is wrong with this picture, but I have no idea what.

Derek Lee is getting old, I think. He was really good as recently as 2009 (.306, 35 HR, .972 OPS), but he's now 35, and will turn 36 next season... his bat looked pretty slow at times last season, especially late in the year. He's an option, but it would have to be for far less than the $13.25MM he made in '09. If they're interested in Lee, it would probably be for a 1 year deal, 2 maximum, in the $6-7MM range.

And then there's Lance Berkman... I LOVE Lance (whose nickname is "Fat Elvis") as a hitter, even if he hasn't been the same kind of run-producer the last 2 years. From 2000-2008 he was an absolute monster, averaging .303/.415/.563. But since the beginning of '09, he's only produced at a .262/.384/.464 clip... it would appear he's on the downside. He had just 1 HR in 37 games with the Yankees last season, even though he continued to get on base at a good pace. I can't back this up with any facts, but my gut tells me that at 34, he still might have something in the tank... On order of a Vlad Guererro-esque comeback year. He's got enough name-value to garner some demand on the free-agent market, so I don't know that the O's would put out the $ it might take to get him... he made $14MM last season, and even at half of that per year on a 2-year deal, there's significant risk.

Other Free Agent 1B's

• Troy Glaus - started off pretty well last year, but then fell off and finished at .240/.344/.400. He can still hit, but he has a hard time staying healthy.
• Aubrey Huff - I don't think there's any way Huff would come back to Baltimore, but he can obviously still hit. He carried the Giants at times last year.
• Adam LaRoche - struck out a TON last year (172 times), but has some pop (.261/.320/.468 last year, similar numbers for his career). Solid guy, definitely not an All-Star. I think he and Derrek Lee will produce similar numbers, but LaRoche will come a lot cheaper ($4.5MM in '10).
• Jorge Cantu - his slash-line pretty much tells the story: .274/.320/.446. He can't play enough defense to hold down another position, and doesn't have enough pop to play 1B. I think the O's would be better off handing over 1B to a player already in the organization, like Brandon Snyder, Jake Fox, or even Josh Bell.

Dave Meggett Sentenced to 30 Years

Former NFL running back Dave Meggett was sentenced to 30 years in prison on Wednesday, in a South Carolina court. Meggett, who once played for Towson and whose son Davin currently plays for Maryland, was convicted on charges of criminal sexual conduct and burglary. There's a link to the Baltimore Sun article, below.

Ex-NFL player Meggett gets 30 years in sexual assault

Growing up in NY, I was a big Dave Meggett fan back in the early 90's, especially in 1990 when they went 13-3 and beat the Bills (hate) in the Superbowl. He returned punts and caught balls out of the backfield on 3rd down, and I loved how fast he was, and that he made defenders miss... I think of him as sort of a combination of a poor man's Reggie Bush and Kevin Faulk; he didn't have Bush's talent, but did things with a bit more flair than Faulk. A good player, but he's obviously run afoul of the law - this supposedly isn't an isolated incident.

O's Settle Revenue Dispute with State

The following is a link to a Sun article; the O's reportedly settled for $913K with the state of Maryland regarding advertising revenue for home plate billboards... the dispute centered around the intended purpose of the billboards, and whether certain contractual obligations should apply or not.

Maryland Officials Settle with Orioles Over Ad Revenue

And here's a follow-up blog post by Jay Hancock, a financial columnist for the Sun, with more details. He references a MD Daily Record article from last night, which provides some more information on the issue, and what led to the settlement.

Orioles stadium-ad settlement hurts taxpayers

Juan Samuel Update

According to this yahoo sports article from yesterday, Juan Samuel might be leaving the Orioles organization to join Charlie Manuel's staff with the Phillies, possible as the team's 1st base coach.

Juan Samuel to Rejoin Phillies as Coach

For those who don't know, Samuel was the Orioles interim manager last year (17-34 record), before being replaced by Buck Showalter.

Preparing Ed Smith Stadium

A quick article (with accompanying audio) on the University of South Florida website... Focuses on how the Orioles are working on the renovations to their "new" spring training facility, Ed Smith Stadium, in Sarasota. Some of the key features are a new HD scoreboard, new green seating imported directly from Camden Yards, and by overwhelming fan demand, more shade.

Ed Smith Stadium Gearing Up

O's Name Mark Connor Pitching Coach

Showalter continued filling out his staff today, as he replaced pitching coach Rick Kranitz with a 61-year old former colleague named Mark Connor. Connor worked with Showalter in the Rangers, Yankees, and Diamondbacks organizations, and was at one time a Minnesota Twins minor league pitching prospect (1971-1972) whose career was cut short by an arm injury.

According to the Baseball Reference Bullpen, Connor has been a scout, bullpen coach, pitching coordinator, and pitching coach; he was also the head baseball coach at the University of Tennessee from 1988-1989.

O's Decline Hendrickson Option

The O's declined to pick up the team option on Mark Hendrickson for 2011. Essentially a spare part, the LHP might still be back at a cheaper price (his option was for $1.2 million) as a free agent. He's the kind of guy that will give you right around a 5.00 ERA regardless of his role; unless there are intangibale reasons, I'd bring up a younger, cheaper guy from the farm system.