Melewski's Take on Available 1st Basemen (MASN)

Nice peek (from Steve Melewski at MASN) at some of the 1st basemen available in free agency this year; obviously the Orioles are in the market for corner infielders (or are thought to be, as MacPhail keeps his own counsel on this sort of thing, rightfully), and the 1B market is a lot richer than the 3rd base crop. Melewski focuses on these 5 players as the "best available":

• Adam Dunn
• Paul Konerko
• Carlos Pena
• Derrek Lee
• Lance Berkman

I like Adam Dunn a lot (probably the most of this group), and Konerko too. Dunn's main deficiencies are his defense and batting average, which I think are more than mitigated by his power and on-base ability. Plus, he'll only be 31 this year. He and Konerko are definitely at the head of this 1B free-agent class.

Paul Konerko's only real drawbacks are that he's now 34 years old, and that he has shown a tendency to have hit-or-miss seasons; he can be the .312/.393/.584 guy he was in his career-year last season (extremely valuable), or he can be the .250/.348/.467 hitter that he was in 2007 and 2008 (mediocre at best, and not worth the $11-12MM it will probably take to sign him).

I wouldn't touch Carlos Pena with a 10-foot pole, unless they could get him for $4-5MM (he had $10.1MM last year). His OPS has decreased every year for the last 4 seasons, from a high of 1.037 in 2007, all the way down to .732 last year. Do you have any idea how hard it is to hit 28 HRs and walk 87 times, and only post a .732? Something is wrong with this picture, but I have no idea what.

Derek Lee is getting old, I think. He was really good as recently as 2009 (.306, 35 HR, .972 OPS), but he's now 35, and will turn 36 next season... his bat looked pretty slow at times last season, especially late in the year. He's an option, but it would have to be for far less than the $13.25MM he made in '09. If they're interested in Lee, it would probably be for a 1 year deal, 2 maximum, in the $6-7MM range.

And then there's Lance Berkman... I LOVE Lance (whose nickname is "Fat Elvis") as a hitter, even if he hasn't been the same kind of run-producer the last 2 years. From 2000-2008 he was an absolute monster, averaging .303/.415/.563. But since the beginning of '09, he's only produced at a .262/.384/.464 clip... it would appear he's on the downside. He had just 1 HR in 37 games with the Yankees last season, even though he continued to get on base at a good pace. I can't back this up with any facts, but my gut tells me that at 34, he still might have something in the tank... On order of a Vlad Guererro-esque comeback year. He's got enough name-value to garner some demand on the free-agent market, so I don't know that the O's would put out the $ it might take to get him... he made $14MM last season, and even at half of that per year on a 2-year deal, there's significant risk.

Other Free Agent 1B's

• Troy Glaus - started off pretty well last year, but then fell off and finished at .240/.344/.400. He can still hit, but he has a hard time staying healthy.
• Aubrey Huff - I don't think there's any way Huff would come back to Baltimore, but he can obviously still hit. He carried the Giants at times last year.
• Adam LaRoche - struck out a TON last year (172 times), but has some pop (.261/.320/.468 last year, similar numbers for his career). Solid guy, definitely not an All-Star. I think he and Derrek Lee will produce similar numbers, but LaRoche will come a lot cheaper ($4.5MM in '10).
• Jorge Cantu - his slash-line pretty much tells the story: .274/.320/.446. He can't play enough defense to hold down another position, and doesn't have enough pop to play 1B. I think the O's would be better off handing over 1B to a player already in the organization, like Brandon Snyder, Jake Fox, or even Josh Bell.