The Opportunity Cost of Matt Hobgood

Steve Melewski at MASN recently talked to Joe Jordan, the Orioles director of scouting, about former 1^st round draft pick Matt Hobgood. Jordan reaffirmed that while Hobgood hasn’t produced as a pro, he was healthy when drafted; the team believed they were getting a tall, strong workhorse with a fastball that sat 92-94 and topped out between 96-97, with solid breaking stuff. He suggests that somewhere along the line, Hobgood’s health just deteriorated.

CCHC’s Take – most experts didn’t agree with the Orioles’ selection of Hobgood in 2009; the consensus was that he was a “signability” pick (a player that’s probably picked higher than he should be, because he’s likely to sign with the team at an affordable rate). You can’t hold Jordan and his team entirely responsible, as Hobgood definitely hasn’t been healthy; we hopefully haven’t seen him at full strength yet. But still, we thought it was a very risky pick then. I have to admit, though… I didn’t hate it.

This next part isn’t fair, hindsight being 20/20, but I’m going to do it anyway… I’d like to look at the opportunity cost of drafting Matt Hobgood with the 5^th overall pick, two years ago. By that, I mean what kind of value did the Orioles give up by making that selection, as opposed to another one? To do that, we have to know what options were available at the time - the following is a list of the top players drafted after Hobgood, in the 1^st round:

I didn’t use any kind of objective criteria to make this evaluation, but from what I can tell, you shouldn’t really need any. I’d say that 8 of the next 10 picks would absolutely have been better options than Hobgood at #5; and the 6 players drafted directly behind him (#6 through #11) would ALL have been better selections. The only exceptions would be Aaron Crow (#12, Royals), who’s now 24 and posted an ERA near 6.00 last season, and Matthew Purke (Rangers, #14), who didn’t sign.

I’m not trying to kill the O’s here, I’m really not. The MLB draft is a bitch, because there are so many players out there, and they span high school, JUCO, and 4-year colleges. It’s impossible to scout everyone well, and it’s very easy to make a mistake; or even make a good pick that just busts.

Let’s toss in another wrinkle – here’s Hobgood’s pre-draft 2009 scouting report, which is posted here on MLB.com. I highlighted the parts I thought were interesting:

·          Fastball: Hobgood threw his fastball in the 89-92 mph range and went right after hitters with it.

·          Fastball Movement: Has heavy, hard life.

·          Curve: A plus pitch, 11-to-5, true curve, thrown 74-79 mph. It has the chance to be the best high school curve in this class.

·          Slider: It's slurvy at 80 mph, and is a usable pitch.

·          Changeup: Didn't show a changeup and may lack a feel for it.

·          Control: Has average high school command, but was throwing to the radar gun a bit too much.

·          Poise: Exceptional. He challenged hitters, daring them to try and hit him. He has a little mean streak on the mound.

·          Physical Description: Hobgood is a big, physical animal -- like a Josh Beckett type.

·          Medical Update: Healthy.

·          Strengths: Size, strength and durability. Also has two plus pitches now, with the intangibles to be a front-of-the-rotation starter.

·          Weaknesses: Doesn't show a feel for a changeup. He lands a little hard and will have to soften his front side a little to hone command.

·          Summary: Hobgood is a big, strong right-hander with two plus offerings in his heavy fastball and outstanding curve. Some small tweaks to his delivery should help him find even better fastball command. If he can add a changeup to go along with his other offerings and his tremendous mound presence, he has the chance to be a front-of-the-rotation starter in the future.

Aside from the velocity, that doesn’t seem all that different from Jordan’s assessment. Given that, can you kill the Orioles for this pick? I really can’t… Yes, this scouting report sounds a bit more like a mid-late first round pick than an early one (I HATE taking high school pitchers early, because of the increased risk factor), but if he was the best player on their board, then it wasn’t insane.

SO I guess that’s my point of the whole thing: 

The Orioles selection of Matt Hobgood was not insane. 

For some reason, that doesn't make me feel ANY better.