December 29, 2010

Why the Orioles Need an Ace

I don't even think I need to go into this too deeply to make my point. Look, I know that acquiring and then maintaining an elite starter is the hardest thing to do in baseball. I know that it's extremely expensive, and loaded with risk. And obviously, I also know that developing one yourself is an absolute crap-shoot.

But the dearth of talent at the top of the rotation for this team over the last decade is almost overwhelming... It has damaged the franchise, killed attendance, and absolutely crippled morale. There's just no reason to go to these games for most fans, honestly - not only have their top guys been disinteresting, they've been awful.... Take a look at this list of the team's opening day starters, and their performances, over the last 10 seasons:


Some things to think about:
  • In general, the opening day starter is usually considered the team's best pitcher, year-over-year.
  • The pitchers above have gone 86-120 (.417 winning percentage) combined , with a 4.87 ERA, in the year they got the nod on opening day. That's just a touch above replacement level.
  • OUCH. Those are the O's best guys?
  • 3 times those pitchers led the league in losses.
  • 6 times, they had an ERA over 5.00.
  • In 7 out of the 10 seasons, they had a losing record.
  • None of these guys has a career ERA under 4.00, except Bedard. And he was immediately traded (a great deal, I agree), and had barely been able to stay on the mound since '07 due to injury.
I don't have any answers here, but christ on a crutch, they've been bad.

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