Markakis and Yastremski: Career Parallels

OK, before I lose absolutely all credibility here, with that post title... I know. Save it, ok? But I found something interesting, and it made me think, so let's talk about it.

I'm a big Baseball Reference fan, and I like to poke around and see what I can find. I was looking at Markakis's career stats, and I thought to myself: "This guy is all over the place with power, but he's obviously a good hitter. Is there anyone else out there that profiles like this?". So I looked at his similarity scores, and the person he most closely resembles after his age 26 season is... whoa. Carl Yastremski?

Sometimes these things can be a little mis-leading, as a player might not have a solid historical peer, and the name that spits out is simply the closest that the algorithm can come up with. So I went the other way, and checked Yaz's comparables, and yep... at age 25 and 26, Markakis is the most similiar player in the database.

That seemed a little insane, as even as an Oriole fan, I don't really consider Markakis's performance to be of a special caliber... solid, yes, but also disappointing, in a lot of ways.

So I took a look at their age 22 through age 26 seasons, to see why the system was drawing the parallel:

You can see why BR sees them as comparables, at least through age 26.

Obviously, this does not mean that Nick Markakis is going to go on to have a Yaz-like (Hall of Fame) career. Like they say "Past Performance Does Not Guarantee Future Success", and someone else's past performance, no matter how similiar, is pretty much irrelevant.

But it did make me think, at least a little. Markakis was 26 years old last season. He's a productive hitter, even if he never improves beyond where he is, right now. We've all been disappointed in his power production, but he's been very consistent in terms of batting average and on-base ability, which means that he can control the strike zone.

I don't think many people would argue that the ability to control the zone is what separates good hitters from GREAT hitters. Even if a hitter doesn't walk, the ability to select and strike the pitch that you want to hit, as opposed to the one the pitcher wants you to hit, is the key to sustaiinable success. I think that Markakis's ability to control the zone is the primary reason why he compares well with Yaz, through similar stages in their careers.

Yazstremski was a good player, but not necessarily a great one, through age 26. I lived in Boston for a long time, and you always heard the stories there about how before his great year in 1967 (his age 27 season), he worked out like a madman with a personal trainer, and completely re-dedicated himself to being a baseball player. He was regularly quoted as saying that he turned the corner because he had spent the first part of his career learning to hit, and only after doing that did he figure out how to truly drive the ball. He broke out in '67 because he was confident, in his physical prime, and was finally playing for a team that could compete; 1967 was the first time in his career that he played for a team that finished above .500.

Now, I have no idea how well the Orioles are going to do this season; nobody does. If they say they do, they're lying, or just badly mistaken. And I also have do idea how Markakis will perform, individually.

But I do know that Nick is coming into his prime years now, and looked really good last September and October when the O's were on a roll, after Buck Showalter inspired the team. He looked like a different player - he actually looked like he was having fun. He looked inspired. That gave me hope.

In order for this team to do anything other than act as a doormat for the rest of the AL East, they need him to play a key role. They need him to produce. I don't even think it matters what form that production comes in, batting average, power, etc... it just needs to happen. And we all know he's capable.

I personally believe that this is the last year that Markakis tracks Yazstremski. I don't think he's that same kind of elite player, at least long-term. But I know that he's significantly better than what he's shown so far, and I think this is the year that he makes the jump. We'll check back in November.