Orioles Hot Stove Options: WAR Comparison

OK, a lot of the people reading this know that the acronym WAR stands for "Wins Above Replacement", and is used to describe how many more team wins that any baseball player's total contribution (both offense and defense) would provide, in comparison with a "replacement" player; or someone that a team could simply pluck out of Triple-A and stick into the lineup.

Just for an example, let's use Rhyne Hughes as our example replacement player. A good way to describe WAR would be to say: "How many fewer wins would the Orioles have collected in 2010 season, if Markakis got hurt, and they had to bring up Rhyne Hughes and play him every day?"

The answer, according to WAR, is 3.5 wins. Doesn't seem like a lot, does it? It kind of speaks to the razor-thin difference between a good ball player and a career minor leaguer - sometimes the difference is just a combination of chance and opportunity. According to Baseball Reference, an MVP-type season would be an 8+ WAR, an All-Star season would be 5+, 2+ would be a major league starting player, between 0 and 2 would be a reserve/fringe starter, and below 0 are your replacement level dudes.

So, you ask... why are we getting this mediocre lesson in player value stats?

Well, I thought it would be interesting to take a look at the free agents and the trade candidates that the O's are rumored to have been targeting so far this off-season, and compare them to the Orioles incumbents based on their 2010 WAR.

Note - these stats are from Baseball Reference, and the "rk" column is their rank amongst all major league position players for the 2010 season.

Shortstop

• As you can see, neither Hardy nor Bartlett were really worthy of being a starting major league shortstop last season; they were both OK, but continued performances like those would more than likely insure that they lost their starting jobs, long-term. 
• Both would more than likely lose their starting jobs in 2011, if their teams were to retain them (Bartlett->Brignac, and Hardy->Nishioka), so in one way, those teams are almost having their hand forced; it's hard to keep an arbitration-eligible veteran on the bench, because of the cost.
• What the Orioles were thinking, obviously, is that they'd get these guys "cheap" after sub par seasons, when their value was low. 
• Even if neither improved, they would still be significantly better than Izturis, who posted the 856 ranked WAR in the major leagues. (Translation=BAD)

Third Base

• The reason for the team's interest in Beltre is obvious: a 6.10 WAR, with .60 of that coming from defense; he really is an excellent defender.
• It's difficult to see why they chose to acquire Reynolds - Miguel Tejada was actually a half a win better in terms of WAR than Reynolds was last season, and Reynolds has never posted a WAR better than 2.2 in his whole career, even considering his monster 44 HR 2009.
• Much of the reason for that is his defense, which according to this system is dreadful: a -1.4 defense WAR in '09, and -0.8 last year.
• What they're hoping for is that he's entering his age 27 season, he's cheap ($5MM in '10), and looking to prove himself after a terrible year - that combination can lead to a monster year.

First Base

• Their needs here are really pretty obvious; Ty Wigginton really wasn't starting first base material, and only played there for long stretches last year because Garrett Atkins failed so miserably.
• Any of the targets above would have been an improvment over the guys they ran out in '10.
• Konerko, Pena and Dunn are all off the market now. 
• LaRoche or Lee, while obviously a notch below the top tier guys, would provide value to the franchise.